Buddy1987 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 For whatever it is worth EPS mean at 192 has the low sitting off east of Wilmington. All I can see though based on Tropical Tidbits. I know other folks in here have better means to access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: EPS means went way up. For example, Burlington went from 1.6” to 4”. Huge signal there. When the EPS is that deep this far out, there's a storm coming for somebody. High pressure looks stronger up top and located closer by. Looked like the storm is bit stronger this run and therefore ticked north. I don't want to see that anymore. It already looks like the path it takes goes a bit inland over southern Georgia. I'd rather it hug the gulf coast and the panhandle. I think if this is truly inland we're all going to have WAA issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 So many days to go... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Not bad for RAH this far out: It will otherwise be colder through the end of the week, as the trough aloft and cP high pressure migrate ewd across the srn Appalachians and sern US - coldest Thu, when highs will be in the 40s and lows solidly in the 20s. A reinforcing cold front, and leading edge of a fresh cP high, will then move swd through VA/NC late Fri-Fri night, immediately ahead of a significant srn stream wave and next bout of precipitation next Sat. This system will bring with it a good chance of a widespread, soaking rain, and also a threat of wintry weather at least at the onset over the Piedmont, as the srn stream moisture moves newd and interacts with the cP high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 HM considers the GFS and FV3 handling of the southern wave to be outliers at the moment https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1068939730610466820 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1068941460530257921 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, griteater said: HM considers the GFS and FV3 handling of the southern wave to be outliers at the moment https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1068939730610466820 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1068941460530257921 I wonder if that includes the GEFS, which aint bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I wonder if that includes the GEFS, which aint bad... We’d have to scour the GFS Members. Have fun with that Niner and report back http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_12z/ensloopmref.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, griteater said: We’d have to scour the GFS Members. Have fun with that Niner and report back http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_12z/ensloopmref.html#picture lol, probably an over simplistic assumption on my part; had the mean in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Substantially stronger High at 138, bodes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 GFS is coming way north with the initial low, just absolutely plowing into the banana high lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 How does the GFS keep insisting that the Low goes right into that High? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: GFS is coming way north with the initial low, just absolutely plowing into the banana high lol Completely 1000% a discount at this point. GFS is notorious for doing this. There is no way the low is going to pile drive a banana high setup that way. Idk the flaw in the GFS model or why it has the tendency to do this but it is a staple with systems like this for GFS to eventually correct itself. Could it be showing a miller b rather than a southeast slider? Absolutely a plausible scenario. Regardless as others have mentioned the high is in a classic setup to provide positive results if you are a winter weather fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 GFS is a major ice storm for CAD areas. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: GFS is a major ice storm for CAD areas. Yikes. It's a cutter, so I doubt it would be major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowNiner said: It's a cutter, so I doubt it would be major. Miller B with a banana high to the North. That’s a classic CAD event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: It's a cutter, so I doubt it would be major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Miller B with a banana high to the North. That’s a classic CAD event. Sure, northern CAD areas. But the WAA scours it out in the piedmont very effectively. I'm not sure it's possible for MBY to have a major ice storm with a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Ok, I hear ya. I could be wrong. I just doubt it would happen that way considering my experience of never having an winter with a cutter. Probably moot as this configuration is not the likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Completely 1000% a discount at this point. GFS is notorious for doing this. There is no way the low is going to pile drive a banana high setup that way. Idk the flaw in the GFS model or why it has the tendency to do this but it is a staple with systems like this for GFS to eventually correct itself. Could it be showing a miller b rather than a southeast slider? Absolutely a plausible scenario. Regardless as others have mentioned the high is in a classic setup to provide positive results if you are a winter weather fan. And yet it's happened. Not saying the GFS will be correct (especially at this range, good golly), but highs can and do move out if their upper level support leaves. I can't count the number of times we've had a marginal wintry even or just very cold rain due to CAD that quickly leaves as a storm moves up the apps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 It's time for the FV3 to get on board and prove it's way better than the garbage GFS we are used to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Looking at the OP Euro, I think that’s mostly sleet instead of freezing rain after the snow falls. 925s stay cold and 850s are only at +1 or +2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, WidreMann said: And yet it's happened. Not saying the GFS will be correct (especially at this range, good golly), but highs can and do move out if their upper level support leaves. I can't count the number of times we've had a marginal wintry even or just very cold rain due to CAD that quickly leaves as a storm moves up the apps. WidreMann, If that banana stays entrenched the way it is depicted (which we both know as the event gets closer, Cad is normally underdone) there is no way the 18z gfs taken at face value will come to fruition. The GFS countless times is notorious for doing this. It is also an outlier at present when it comes to the globals, so for now we toss. Now if the high placement or the positioning is off then yes obviously your scenario could def come back to the drawing board with this. I know both of us hope we get absolutely creamed with this. It’s been a rough couple of years for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 In fact, I would guess the sleet line runs right along 85 from GSP to RDU. Freezing rain line from blythewood to wadesboro to Smithfield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 18z GEFS Mean is pretty much like the EPS Mean but slightly warmer. Sfc low runs from New Orleans to S GA / N FL to off SE Coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Evening here for another winter season Ill take anything FROZEN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 FV3 much improved at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: FV3 much improved at 18Z Yep! The low tracked pretty much due east instead of cutting. Many ensembles have had a similar look. Here's the overblown clown map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 53 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Completely 1000% a discount at this point. GFS is notorious for doing this. There is no way the low is going to pile drive a banana high setup that way. Idk the flaw in the GFS model or why it has the tendency to do this but it is a staple with systems like this for GFS to eventually correct itself. Could it be showing a miller b rather than a southeast slider? Absolutely a plausible scenario. Regardless as others have mentioned the high is in a classic setup to provide positive results if you are a winter weather fan. I swear I rememeber we had a similar setup last year where the GFS depicted this exact outcome and the board chatter was identical.. We did end up with a winter event, but cant recall the outcome. Ring a bell with anyone else, and if so, any similarities? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 FV3 has NC CAD areas below freezing from 18Z Friday through 18Z Monday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 You thinking of the December 8th event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now