Jonathan Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Bigtime Miller B on the FV3, but still a big winter storm for most of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z GEFS still different from the OP. Widespread Winter Storm. GEFS mean has low south of Charleston at hr198 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, CADEffect said: pic? I could show something but the main take away is the GEFS is consistent at staying much further south than the OP. Here's the 12z GEFS Snow Depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Here's the Canadian freezing rain map (can't get image to save, so here's link): http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=zr_acc&rh=2018120112&fh=240&r=us_ma&dpdt= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I could show something but the main take away is the GEFS is consistent at staying much further south than the OP. Here's the 12z GEFS Snow Depth. I'm a little concerned of the HP only at around 1021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, CADEffect said: I'm a little concerned of the HP only at around 1021. At 7-8 days away, don’t be 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, CADEffect said: I'm a little concerned of the HP only at around 1021. The main takeaway my friend is that you have the players on the table that you need and the recipe to induce a winter storm for some of the viewing area. Multiple models are showing viable solutions and that’s all you can ask for at 7-8 day leeway. Cold and everything else will follow, especially with antecedent conditions and any one of the solutions such as a southern slider or a miller b secondary, where the low level cold gets locked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 33 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I could show something but the main take away is the GEFS is consistent at staying much further south than the OP. Here's the 12z GEFS Snow Depth. Just like my Browns, I'm still in the hunt! I don't care if it is just a dusting, in my lifetime I have not had accumulating December snowfall this early. Other than that miracle October storm last year, only snow I have seen has been on Veterans Day, Jan., Feb., and March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 All the small/med ice events in W NC this year, have been stronger/ colder than modeled. The last one that got into Shelby and stuff, was not even supposed to get close to GSP (38,37) degrees was forecast low. I sat at 33,32 degrees for like 4-6 hours, with a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/orangeburg/m17_snow-depth-in/20181209-0600z.html Literally 1/50... But man I hope that stays on the table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 It’s a solid Euro run 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Definitely in the suppressed camp this run with the southern wave track / evolution - not the amped version that climbs north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Euro is just a crush job for WNC. Lots of front end snow and back end ice ice baby. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Looks like Euro would track from between Columbus/Albany GA to off of Hatteras. Freakin great track! Ejects the system out a lot quicker than the GFS does and keeps it our southern solution. Anytime Euro shows lows eject correctly out of the southwest instead of holding back it is onto something. Pretty good consistency for days now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Verbatim this run is a real mixed mess for the NW upstate. Liitle snow at front to mix to ice - maybe a couple inches total of mess. That line is really close to 85 as usual - that high needs to trend a little stronger and hang around a little longer. As always, Pickens/Oconee right on the line! Caution for everyone, wouldn't be surprised to see models lose this (especially North) over the next couple of days. If that happens as usual, don't panic just yet, there will be tons of changes ove the next week and who knows how this will acutally play out. Hearing a lot of reminders about CAD being underforecasted and that does happen a lot, but NOT ALWAYS, so don't count on it automatically. Incidentally, today's CAD was underforecasted, so far at least. High for me was 56, only made it to 50 so far. Is Burrel, Wow, or Lookout on here yet, would like to hear your thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Verbatim this run is a real mixed mess for the NW upstate. Liitle snow at front to mix to ice - maybe a couple inches total of mess. That line is really close to 85 as usual - that high needs to trend a little stronger and hang around a little longer. As always, Pickens/Oconee right on the line! Caution for everyone, wouldn't be surprised to see models lose this (especially North) over the next couple of days. If that happens as usual, don't panic just yet, there will be tons of changes ove the next week and who knows how this will acutally play out. Hearing a lot of reminders about CAD being underforecasted and that does happen a lot, but NOT ALWAYS, so don't count on it automatically. Incidentally, today's CAD was underforecasted, so far at least. High for me was 56, only made it to 50 so far. Is Burrel, Wow, or Lookout on here yet, would like to hear your thoughts! I'm here... pretty excited about the potential, but trying not to get too amped up yet. We've got another few days before we know if it's a real threat or not. The pattern certainly looks conducive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Thor said: Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 The Euro shows it changing to wintry mix part the way through, so that map isn't accurate. Looks like maybe 3-5" of snow for Triangle before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Also temperatures are fairly marginal through the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 A nasty ice storm on the back end. 8 hours or so of fairly heavy freezing rain, with temps in the upper 20s for the triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Does the Kuchera ratio on WxBell show sleet as well? Or just snow? Or all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 A nasty ice storm on the back end. 8 hours or so of fairly heavy freezing rain, with temps in the upper 20s for the triad. Perfect sledding conditions! Good snowpack with a sheen of crusty ice on top is money!Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 12z EPS Mean looks slightly better from previous run. A little colder with a healthy low. GEFS and EPS means from 12z have a bit more damming signal than previous runs 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: 12z EPS Mean looks slightly better from previous run. A little colder with a healthy low. GEFS and EPS means from 12z have a bit more damming signal than previous runs How does the EPS compare to the OP? Can you see individuals? I wonder how many cutters there are at 12z vs 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Both 12z gefs and eps had a big increase in snowfall. Looks like it’s an all or nothing situation, on eps members that have snowfall are big for WNC. Other members appear to be big rainers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 40 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Wow! 42 minutes ago, Thor said: Snow line ticked a little further south, not getting my hopes up but is it too much to ask just to see some flakes at least?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 EPS means went way up. For example, Burlington went from 1.6” to 4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I counted about 38 out of 50 members with a Moderate-Major Snow for my area in Dry, Fork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: EPS means went way up. For example, Burlington went from 1.6” to 4”. What is the EPS mean now showing for Dry Fork, VA. I can see the individual members but not the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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