NCSNOW Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 The pound job just continues on 18z gfs for NC. Some of the best computer generated snow over the past several years. And dare I say it matches up well with my winter pre-season forecast. Burns would be buying me dinner before the 1st official day of winter even gets here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 5:30pm Thu Nov. 29 Latest odds to see Snow Flakes and/or Sleet Pellets over the next 15 days. Based entirely on GFS and EURO model Ensembles. The chance Late Dec..5 & early Dec. 6th started showing up in... https://t.co/WwPgcLEuYn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 FV3 GFS shifted south and runs the sfc low across the northern gulf. Good banana sfc high with the parent high moving into the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 If that were to happen it would would be awesome for NC, but would SUCK if you're in SC, which I am. Another dec 2009 for western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 I don't really see much in the way of differences with the 18z GFS Ens Mean compared to last run....it has a healthy system though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 I probably shouldn't say this but that looks like December 18,2009. Strong shortwave into southern California/N.Mexico heading east with a fairly deep trough in the southeast.There was also a sharp cutoff along I-85 in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: If that were to happen it would would be awesome for NC, but would SUCK if you're in SC, which I am. Another dec 2009 for western areas. If all those highs strength and location were correct, and the 18z GFS track was correct, we’d be without power for a week! Ice crush job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 18z FV3 GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 18z FV3 GFS loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 16 minutes ago, griteater said: 18z FV3 GFS run I'd lean toward the Euro and FV3 at this point more. Not because it has a better storm, but because it has been scoring better than the GFS, correct? But this far out it really is hard to buy into any of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: I'd lean toward the Euro and FV3 at this point more. Not because it has a better storm, but because it has been scoring better than the GFS, correct? But this far out it really is hard to buy into any of them. correct, but the Ensembles we can lean on this far out and they show support.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Wunderground is calling for 1-3" of snow on Wednesday. I guess a dusting to an inch or so is probably the ceiling, with good rates needing to overcome temps in the mid thirties. The timing is perfect on the GFS, so that would help. Any snow is a win in December. I just moved here, so I'm not sure about local climo, but it would seem, the mountains often would steal snow with this kind of little clipperish thing. Edit: Although Now I see it has more to do with the Coastal low, which seems like reasonably optimistic set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: correct, but the Ensembles we can lean on this far out and they show support.... Isn't the new FV3 taking over in January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 18 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Isn't the new FV3 taking over in January? Yes, supposed to be in January, but the GFS ensembles won’t be updated until a later date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 00z GFS is a torcher - onto 6z we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 0z not even close for NC! Congrats Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Has the LP plowing into a CAD, good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 That run was ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 HP dropping down was weak and late to the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 FV3 with the Sandlapper Special... On to 6z and hope the GEFS and EURO keep the southern slider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Not a lot of support in the GEFS for the op run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 EPS also supporting a better track: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 GEFS overall with positive low level pressure trends (and a nice banana high): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 6z GFS back to a southern solution, but not cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, JoshM said: 6z GFS back to a southern solution, but not cold enough. It could be right, but there is some really cold air that's initially in place before the precip pushes in. A lot of time the models warm the air too much, too fast. So basically I like this look for this being 8 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 15 hours ago, Wow said: So will this be Mother Nature's apology for the last early December threat of snow in 2000? Wow! I'll buy someone dinner and a 12 pack if they have the brass to stitch a thread for this Dec. 8/9 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 9th and the 14th with a fully loaded CAD... THIS WINTER IS GOING TO BE FUN!!! (Caps intentional due to excited tracking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 clipper still looking healthy on the 12z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: clipper still looking healthy on the 12z gfs. Yep, doesn’t drop a lot of snow but again it would be a win to just see snow fall from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1036mb high shifted (roughly) 75 miles south out to 162... Might finally be caving to the GEFS tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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