STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah you can pretty much get a feeling for what this will look like. Couple inches west to maybe as much as 6 for your area, but NYC / SW CT may be right on the line of have/have not. Most posters in our forum should have white ground come Saturday AM No sold on BL Temps east Not to mention models will be flopping in this pattern Thru mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: No sold on BL Temps east Not to mention models will be flopping in this pattern Thru mid week Definitely a concern. Although that part in guidance is lessening. This reminds me of a very wimpy version of December 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 38 minutes ago, dendrite said: Why pay for euro data now with Maue at weather.us/wx.graphics and all of it being free? That site doesn't seem very user friendly...how are the snowfall maps? Are they BS-inflated maps loke weatherbell, or more accurate like eurowx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That site doesn't seem very user friendly...how are the snowfall maps? Are they BS-inflated maps loke weatherbell, or more accurate like eurowx? I would lean weenieish on the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Definitely a concern. Although wouldpart in guidance is lessening. This reminds me of a very wimpy version of December 2003. When you said "Fwiw" that 6z navgem and 0z gfs look similiar. With the ridge orientation fast flow and multiple moving parts i Would say its Worth noting at This lead time and not much more. This is at least a fun time for model watching as we are now so close we are salivating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I would lean weenieish on the maps. The euro Snow maps all Seemed like crap storm after storm last year. IT is the Weakest part of their service. If people give these snowfall maps The blessings associated w "euro model king status" I believe their forecasts will suffer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Tropical Tidbits just put this up December 3: New snowfall products ["Snow-depth change" for GFS, NAM12, and HRRR] and [Snowfall (Ferrier) for NAM3] have been added. These are likely more realistic than assuming 10:1 snow/liquid ratios." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Tropical Tidbits just put this up December 3: New snowfall products ["Snow-depth change" for GFS, NAM12, and HRRR] and [Snowfall (Ferrier) for NAM3] have been added. These are likely more realistic than assuming 10:1 snow/liquid ratios." I saw that. At least the maps may be less weenieish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That site doesn't seem very user friendly...how are the snowfall maps? Are they BS-inflated maps loke weatherbell, or more accurate like eurowx? I'm sure Maue is going to make it just like wxbell before he's done. And no idea on the maps, but I'd assume he's using the same algorithms and similar scripts. I look at them, but I wouldn't put any stock into them if making a forecast. I'm hoping they get all of the levels and start offering ec soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I'm sure Maue is going to make it just like wxbell before he's done. And no idea on the maps, but I'd assume he's using the same algorithms and similar scripts. I look at them, but I wouldn't put any stock into them if making a forecast. I'm hoping they get all of the levels and start offering ec soundings. I have been wanting these for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I saw that. At least the maps may be less weenieish. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/NWA2014_D4.1_Workoff_etal.pptx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The euro Snow maps all Seemed like crap storm after storm last year. IT is the Weakest part of their service. If people give these snowfall maps The blessings associated w "euro model king status" I believe their forecasts will suffer I’m not sure those maps are generated at ECMWF. I always thought they were vendor created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Lol at the CFS switcheroo, can we put that computing power into the GFS please and throw that away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’m not sure those maps are generated at ECMWF. I always thought they were vendor created. Yeah it's all vendors. Otherwise all of the maps would be the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I saw that. At least the maps may be less weenieish. There's a reason we called them clown maps going back a decade. Model snow maps are all augmented model data in the form of an algorithm to estimate snowfall...I wish everyone would remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: There's a reason we called them clown maps going back a decade. Model maps are all augmented model data in the form of an algorithm to estimate snowfall...I wish everyone would remember that. Easy access baby. QPF, sim radar, and snow weenie maps. What could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I'm more interested in the total liquid qpf, We can figure the snow potential from there just based off of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's a rjteason we called them clown maps going back a decade. Model maps are all augmented model data in the form of an algorithm to estimate snowfall...I wish everyone would remember that. I just felt some Were giving euro snow maps too much weight (I.E) any ,due to their Name sake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol at the CFS switcheroo, can we put that computing power into the GFS please and throw that away Amen. CFS sucked from day one...trash the piece of garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I have heard the eurowx.com maps are more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 23 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm more interested in the total liquid qpf, We can figure the snow potential from there just based off of climo. some know some don't, generally I give them a quick look to see where frozen will occur. Doesn't mean snow though. RGEM is especially handy in freezing rain events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have heard the eurowx.com maps are more realistic. Yeah I remember them being more realistic...but they still require a grain of salt when viewing them. I really wish we had euro soundings available, that would be the best. Most of the algorithms are fairly crude...and for a reason. It's hard to take into account all the variables that come with snowfall. A really good one would evaluate the max area of omega with relation to sounding temps. A lot of them use surface temps and some of them use "max temp within the column" which is a little better at times, but still way short of serious analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On 12/2/2017 at 5:11 PM, dendrite said: No thanks on KUs. Sometimes we score, but sometimes it’s a mid atlantic exclusive. I’d rather risk losing my snow to NNE and QB where it can lay down some pack rather than BWI. I understand why mid atl weenies are obsessed with KUs, but I don’t understand the appeal up here. Paul and Louis don’t care about NNE/CNE. No comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I remember them being more realistic...but they still require a grain of salt when viewing them. I really wish we had euro soundings available, that would be the best. Most of the algorithms are fairly crude...and for a reason. It's hard to take into account all the variables that come with snowfall. A really good one would evaluate the max area of omega with relation to sounding temps. A lot of them use surface temps and some of them use "max temp within the column" which is a little better at times, but still way short of serious analysis. Bufkit is handy as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Any signs of pattern relaxation around ~12/24? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I remember them being more realistic...but they still require a grain of salt when viewing them. I really wish we had euro soundings available, that would be the best. Most of the algorithms are fairly crude...and for a reason. It's hard to take into account all the variables that come with snowfall. A really good one would evaluate the max area of omega with relation to sounding temps. A lot of them use surface temps and some of them use "max temp within the column" which is a little better at times, but still way short of serious analysis. Are these EPS maps also not good? Here’s last nights EPS map. I always thought these were thought to be fairly legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: some know some don't, generally I give them a quick look to see where frozen will occur. Doesn't mean snow though. RGEM is especially handy in freezing rain events Its easier for some to see the deeper blues and purples on a map................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are these EPS maps also not good? Here’s last nights EPS map. I always thought these were thought to be fairly legit I bet PF would agree they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 That looks like the "control" run, not the actual mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 The EPS maps are still clown maps. They don't change the snowfall algorithms just because they are an ensemble mean. The only reason it might be slightly better is because an ensemble mean has more skill than an OP run once you get past day 3-4 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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