Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I certainly don't believe a single snowfall map I see or post. Purely fun to see peoples reactions to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I remember them being more realistic...but they still require a grain of salt when viewing them. I really wish we had euro soundings available, that would be the best. Most of the algorithms are fairly crude...and for a reason. It's hard to take into account all the variables that come with snowfall. A really good one would evaluate the max area of omega with relation to sounding temps. A lot of them use surface temps and some of them use "max temp within the column" which is a little better at times, but still way short of serious analysis. It really is a bummer not to have omega when it comes to the Euro. Even in AWIPS it doesn't exist. As a proxy I use 850-700 f-gen for vertical motion, but that doesn't move with the DGZ. With the GFS I'm able to create a 2-D plot of -12 to -18C RH and omega, and actually visualize lift and saturation in the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I usually wait to see who's posting then i can figure out my odds at seeing snow without looking in most cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I usually wait to see who's posting then i can figure out my odds at seeing snow without looking in most cases. How much for CHH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How much for CHH? It's colder than the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How much for CHH? More than likely less than what the coolwx.com graphs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It's colder than the coast. That one was a head scratcher after i stopped laughing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It's colder than the coast. Apparently it's not the elbow either. Maybe it's the funny bone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Looks like a swing and a miss for Saturday on the 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Wonky evolution on the 12z GFS but would be some accumulating snow. Doesn't phase the offshore baroclinic zone with the s/w rounding the trough but it still gets some precip in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Euro FTL on Saturday?....though not much of a loss...analfrontal that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 One would hope that one of these s/w's would have a little more oomph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I said I’d be surprised if we made it to next Monday without some accumulating snow.... but that is definitely starting to look like a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Wonky evolution on the 12z GFS but would be some accumulating snow. Doesn't phase the offshore baroclinic zone with the s/w rounding the trough but it still gets some precip in here. I would think with that Great Lakes s/wv it would still support an inverted trof set up for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Saturday is like one of those narrow, but potent bands of precip. Somewhat unstable..high TT kind of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Going to need one to have more oomph if you want a closer to the coast scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Second chance day 6 with s/w 2 coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: I would think with that Great Lakes s/wv it would still support an inverted trof set up for precip. For sure... I didn't dive in too much but you can see sfc pressures fall as the vort max move through along with a kink in the 1000-500mb thickness. Definitely a signal for something of note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Like that follow up wave on the GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 That's a juicy inv finger on the GFS at day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I said I’d be surprised if we made it to next Monday without some accumulating snow.... but that is definitely starting to look like a possibility. I agree....might only be an inch or something, but with all those shortwaves going into a very deep longwave trough...something will probably develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 It would be better if you could get this to consolidate into one instead of individual lobes rounding the base of the trough and moving NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I said I’d be surprised if we made it to next Monday without some accumulating snow.... but that is definitely starting to look like a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: It would be better if you could get this to consolidate into one instead of individual lobes rounding the base of the trough and moving NE Nah, I'm presenting to the media partners tomorrow on Norluns so it would be great to line one up for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 As soon as Tblizz speaks, expect the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Weenie snow maps coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Nah, I'm presenting to the media partners tomorrow on Norluns so it would be great to line one up for the weekend. Make sure you pronounce my name correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: As soon as Tblizz speaks, expect the opposite. He’ll never get it. Looking at qpf maps ftl. So many of them do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Nah, I'm presenting to the media partners tomorrow on Norluns so it would be great to line one up for the weekend. Make sure to explain to them the broad area that they can fall in and the time frame to look for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Make sure you pronounce my name correctly. It's a real weenie presentation, speaking of forecast busts. We had an event in March 1992 that went from clear/partly cloudy the day of to 20" in the PWM area the next morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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