USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Can they explode north of 40.5 or is that the cutoff? They can actually explode anywhere honestly depending upon the H5 dynamics, but if you really want a juiced up storm, look at the ones that travel over or south of the benchmark, they get aided by static instability caused by the arctic air traveling over the extremely warm Gulf Stream. Right now the water temps south of Long Island are close to 55-60F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: They can actually explode anywhere honestly depending upon the H5 dynamics, but if you really want a juiced up storm, look at the ones that travel over or south of the benchmark, they get aided by static instability caused by the arctic air traveling over the extremely warm Gulf Stream. Right now the water temps south of Long Island are close to 55-60F 40.5 is technically north of the BM meat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: 40.5 is technically north of the BM meat. yes I know, I did to account for the waters north of the Benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 With a -18 for ALB predicted on the 13th that is in the bottom 10% of the 850 Climo, probably bottom 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Poor James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: 40.5 is technically north of the BM meat. 1 degree south of Chatham though. Perfect location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: With a -18 for ALB predicted on the 13th that is in the bottom 10% of the 850 Climo, probably bottom 5% Of course we add 3C to those d9-10 euro 850s too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: yes I know, I did to account for the waters north of the Benchmark Hey James you ever look at these on Tropical Tidbits under North Atlantic then thermodynamics, they are pretty useful for determining how much energy is available. Energy is not always available, just because the water is warm, need a lot of factors to induce use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey James you ever look at these on Tropical Tidbits under North Atlantic then thermodynamics, they are pretty useful for determining how much energy is available. Energy its not always there, just because the water is warm, need a lot of factors to induce use. Judging by that map, there is plenty of energy available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: Of course we add 3C to those d9-10 euro 850s too. Still bottom 10% Unrelated To your reduction rule. Neg 850 U wind anomalies are a good thing right?? ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Steve, wind could develop into a problem too for the coastline of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Steve, wind could develop into a problem too for the coastline of New England Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Tuesday? sorry meant to say Saturday/Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Tuesday too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 EPS looks pretty good for this weekend...clearly a lot of timing differences though...it kind of has a continuous strung out low from late Friday night into Saturday night before becoming a bit more consolidated Sunday morning. But its def close enough for some accumulating snow it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS looks pretty good for this weekend...clearly a lot of timing differences though...it kind of has a continuous strung out low from late Friday night into Saturday night before becoming a bit more consolidated Sunday morning. But its def close enough for some accumulating snow it looks like. will be nice to have flakes flying all weekend, great weekend to get the Tree and lights up. In da mood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS looks pretty good for this weekend...clearly a lot of timing differences though...it kind of has a continuous strung out low from late Friday night into Saturday night before becoming a bit more consolidated Sunday morning. But its def close enough for some accumulating snow it looks like. Over the next few days, The weekend systems should become clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Still bottom 10% Unrelated To your reduction rule. Neg 850 U wind anomalies are a good thing right?? ....... Positive U is "normal" flow, so west to east. Negative U is east wind. East wind: better moisture transport in the lower levels and a robust mid level low, slower system if you are looking at the upper levels (i.e. closed off all the way 300 mb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 One thing the Sunday shortwave has is a powerful upper level support in the form of a 200mb 150 knot jet streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS looks pretty good for this weekend...clearly a lot of timing differences though...it kind of has a continuous strung out low from late Friday night into Saturday night before becoming a bit more consolidated Sunday morning. But its def close enough for some accumulating snow it looks like. There it is.. days and days of snow. Winter kickoff in grand style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There it is.. days and days of snow. Winter kickoff in grand style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Far cry from Oct and Nov rat posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Far cry from Oct and Nov rat posts. Very Trump-like. Wild swings of emotions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Very Trump-like. Wild swings of emotions. Media/Gronk like indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 james, any relation to Bruce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Very Trump-like. Wild swings of emotions. After years, with phony and dishonest shortwaves (and more), running through the GFS, its reputation is in Tatters - worst in History! But fear not, we will bring it back to greatness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: After years, with phony and dishonest shortwaves (and more), running through the GFS, its reputation is in Tatters - worst in History! But fear not, we will bring it back to greatness! #MGFSGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 37 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Positive U is "normal" flow, so west to east. Negative U is east wind. East wind: better moisture transport in the lower levels and a robust mid level low, slower system if you are looking at the upper levels (i.e. closed off all the way 300 mb). Thanks Yea it was rhetorical question to those who are on the cold and dry bus, see U winds on the Euro and GFS kids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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