weathafella Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey tell me about the pos NAO Dec 12th 1960, 966 bomb, wow An all timer with that nao no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Pretty potent vortmax over the lower great lakes, This will probably be better on sunday then 18z was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Pretty potent vortmax over the lower great lakes, This will probably be better on sunday then 18z was It's well SW of the 18z run..so I'd expect something pretty significant to pop on the coast this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Um... Sunday vort digging deep, this could be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 That’s a good look at h5, not sure why surface doesn’t reflect it. Wish we lived at h5 again. If it wasn’t such a positive trough, would be much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s a good look at h5, not sure why surface doesn’t reflect it. Wish we lived at h5 again. wave spacing is meh so there is no recovery from lead wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Still trying to desperately hold onto that weird IVT/norlun look, but it's morphing into a miller B on this run. Maybe like 80-90% of the way there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 It has that IVT again this run except its south over S CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: wave spacing is meh so there is no recovery from lead wave Bingo. I knew it would suck when Fri was closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s a good look at h5, not sure why surface doesn’t reflect it. Wish we lived at h5 again. One of those cases where the first wave smears out the baroclinicity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: wave spacing is meh so there is no recovery from lead wave That sucker diving out of James bay at 126 hours acts as a bit of kicker which prob prevents a total full blown miller B solution. But yeah, if we had more room on the front side too then it probably wouldn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Bingo. I knew it would suck when Fri was closer. Doesn't mean its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I'm certainly not going to complain with that solution either. Just stating my opinion on what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Bingo. I knew it would suck when Fri was closer. It shouldn’t matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 We will probably see this transition over to more of a Miller B in upcoming runs, It certainly looked like it was going to do it this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Bingo. I knew it would suck when Fri was closer. Except it was better than the 18z run which was further east for friday night. The 2nd shortwave was definitely better this run. That is pretty close to a nice system...I'm not convinced it wouldn't be with that upper air look anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still trying to desperately hold onto that weird IVT/norlun look, but it's morphing into a miller B on this run. Maybe like 80-90% of the way there. Yeah the look at H5 even has me interested down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Doesn't mean its right. I like when you debate yourself. Plenty of time to get this corrected, small nuances yielding big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That sucker diving out of James bay at 126 hours acts as a bit of kicker which prob prevents a total full blown miller B solution. But yeah, if we had more room on the front side too then it probably wouldn't matter. Kind of the way things will be as far as I can tell. Fast flow won't allow for much in the way of amplification. Verbatim still looks like ~6"+ for the SE MA area with less N & W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: An all timer with that nao no less. Just watched a bunch of vids from Dec 1960 I was 3 and you 13, helluva way for a 13 year old to have fun. 94 mph in Block Island. Saw Dec 1960 on some analogs so I looked around LOL GFS has a serious vort max yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Not a parallel obviously but didn’t we have this argument in January 2015? The famous scooter melt down over the first wave...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 How does this not produce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Well see if that Friday night deal has any legs on other guidance. Was a 2-4” system on the gfs.... pretty sharp cutoff... virtually nothing NW of BOS PVD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Except it was better than the 18z run which was further east for friday night. The 2nd shortwave was definitely better this run. That is pretty close to a nice system...I'm not convinced it wouldn't be with that upper air look anyway. You could see it was a pretty potent vort digging south then rounding the base of the trough, I'm still sold on this will be better at the surface just based on that look at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Except it was better than the 18z run which was further east for friday night. The 2nd shortwave was definitely better this run. That is pretty close to a nice system...I'm not convinced it wouldn't be with that upper air look anyway. But you hit the nail on the head, my concerns are more with the kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Not a parallel obviously but didn’t we have this argument in January 2015? The famous scooter melt down over the first wave...lol. Yeah sort of, though this is a bit of a diff setup...Ray is right that if we wrap the first system too close then it will push the baroclinic zone further east in its wake which will make it harder for storm #2 to amplify....but the main difference is that the longwave trough axis never moves east of us like you see in other systems with wave spacing issues...it's using the same trough to amplify with...so we should be able to pull the baroclinic zone back west a bit as long as the 2nd shortwave digs to our southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Not a parallel obviously but didn’t we have this argument in January 2015? The famous scooter melt down over the first wave...lol. There have been a couple of first wave worries the last years that worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Both waves were better this run. No reason not to be hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Except it was better than the 18z run which was further east for friday night. The 2nd shortwave was definitely better this run. That is pretty close to a nice system...I'm not convinced it wouldn't be with that upper air look anyway. Doesn't matter, anyway....provisional solution as it reconciles current modeling with reality. I think we'll get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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