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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah sort of, though this is a bit of a diff setup...Ray is right that if we wrap the first system too close then it will push the baroclinic zone further east in its wake which will make it harder for storm #2 to amplify....but the main difference is that the longwave trough axis never moves east of us like you see in other systems with wave spacing issues...it's using the same trough to amplify with...so we should be able to pull the baroclinic zone back west a bit as long as the 2nd shortwave digs to our southwest.

Thanks for the explanantion.

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The GFS is taking steps in the right direction...like Berg said.    Both waves being a lil better this run is the take away...and wave two looks very very healthy at H5, is very telling in my opinion...we’ve seen this before..it’s going in the right direction.... optimism should be higher for this to look even better on subsequent runs imo.

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8 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This is the latest I've ever seen you up. Lol

Hopefully we cover the grass this weekend but my expectations are low for us folks just S of VT. 

Since I'm no longer going into Boston, I can sleep past 2:45.  

 

Less-than-inspiring overnight models.  I had expected to wake with the question as to whether to go to Pit2 for a better shot of snow.  Little reason to travel to go from wispy cirrus to heavier wispy cirrus.  Perhaps we eek something to measure out here; maybe SE zones can get a couple.

At least we have some cooler air to enjoy after today's 40's.

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