dryslot Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 We wedge, Going to be tough to warm up on north winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Holding at 37F here, with mid 50's to my southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lowell had a WWA. Shame on them. What is the criteria for WWA in terms of icing? I mean is there an upper threshold where it turns to a WSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I can't really get my grids to spit out as much sleet as we're getting. We just don't have a lot of good tools that know how to turn +7 into sleet. My best guess is that this is a shallower layer of very warm air. So the low level cold balances it somewhat. MWN was below freezing for a while, so even though the models said it was warm to almost 10,000 feet that wasn't true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah was kind of surprised to encounter a skating rink this morning outside...figured we could flirt with it, but then it would retreat, but it never really did. Wonder if a huge chunk of the interior N of pike never even warm sectors....front is already near Hudson Valley...prob get 10F spikes everywhere when it mixes out during FROPA. Yeah. I honestly didn’t look much other than knowing NE MA had some ice risk. Once it was rain here, I didn’t really pay attn to those that wedged. But when I saw I was 33 this morning at 5am, I knew we tucked well. Given the nature of the warm front curving north off the coast, I wonder if a little meso low developed offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, MarkO said: What is the criteria for WWA in terms of icing? I mean is there an upper threshold where it turns to a WSW? Advisory is trace to < 0.50", warning is GTE 0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Glaze here at 600' in Worcester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I can't really get my grids to spit out as much sleet as we're getting. We just don't have a lot of good tools that know how to turn +7 into sleet. My best guess is that this is a shallower layer of very warm air. So the low level cold balances it somewhat. MWN was below freezing for a while, so even though the models said it was warm to almost 10,000 feet that wasn't true. Yeah +7 warm layer into sleet is pretty tough...but you had some temps in the upper teens up there in the low levels. I'm guessing the colder layer is also much thicker where the sleet is happening than further south. Going back to mesoscale class, what do we want, about 400 meters of below freezing to refreeze into ice pellets? I suppose that depth can be trimmed when you have -7C in there. In my presentation at the Amex conference in 2008, I had used -6C as a good gauge for the cold layer turning any ZR into sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 31.1F Light freezing rain. Temp rose steadily to 32F an hour ago and then quickly fell (all within 5 minutes) back to 31F. Has been holding steady. Trees are beautiful. Looks like we dryslot. If we do will get the drone up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah +7 warm layer into sleet is pretty tough...but you had some temps in the upper teens up there in the low levels. I'm guessing the colder layer is also much thicker where the sleet is happening than further south. Going back to mesoscale class, what do we want, about 400 meters of below freezing to refreeze into ice pellets? I suppose that depth can be trimmed when you have -7C in there. In my presentation at the Amex conference in 2008, I had used -6C as a good gauge for the cold layer turning any ZR into sleet. I thought it was interesting late last night when it was 19F at the top of the Gondola and grooming was reporting heavy rain. That warm layer had to be not far above that 875mb layer to have it be so cold and raining... but heavy sleet from 2,500ft and lower. No doubt that 19F at 875mb was why we saw .5-1" of sleet down here though well under that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Cloud physics/ thermodynamics secretly rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Its sleeting at the base of Loon, freezing rain at the base of Mt Snow and all rain at Stratton per webcams on YouTube. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 From my work. We are up on a hill in Leominster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 30.8F and winding down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah +7 warm layer into sleet is pretty tough...but you had some temps in the upper teens up there in the low levels. I'm guessing the colder layer is also much thicker where the sleet is happening than further south. Going back to mesoscale class, what do we want, about 400 meters of below freezing to refreeze into ice pellets? I suppose that depth can be trimmed when you have -7C in there. In my presentation at the Amex conference in 2008, I had used -6C as a good gauge for the cold layer turning any ZR into sleet. Yeah 400 meters is about it, especially if you are getting to -6 C like you said. We're working on getting a wx tool that uses positive and negative area to better capture ptypes. Right now we have a tool that figures out PoP for each ptype, but it uses a climo, where freezing rain dominates above +3 C for instance. So it's good, but not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 White pine outfront just dropped first large branch. Precip has let up and temp is hovering at 31.5. I believe this is the most ice I've seen since the Dec. '08 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 We transitioned to +ZR now here, 25°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 respect the cold tuck and wrf arw deserves some recognition for doing the best with this starting on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 32/32 prob not much accretion from here on out, but still very icy on most surfaces imby about 1/8" accretion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 37.6F, supposed to be in the 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 As Ocean was mentioning ... if the warm layer aloft was thinner, and the coalescence level for hygros was above that layer, than it may not have been long enough to warm through fall rates. all kinds of micros sort of physics to consider there. could be like a plane wreck - it's never a single cause but a series of them that team on a scenario. error in warm depth, error in cold/viscous bl, ...etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 49 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I can't really get my grids to spit out as much sleet as we're getting. We just don't have a lot of good tools that know how to turn +7 into sleet. My best guess is that this is a shallower layer of very warm air. So the low level cold balances it somewhat. MWN was below freezing for a while, so even though the models said it was warm to almost 10,000 feet that wasn't true. It's been more ZR than IP here at about 120' elev in Augusta, but 10-15 minutes ago I learned that it was mainly IP at home. Temp there up to mid 20s from 17-18 at 7 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Looking summery outside with typical summertime cumulus clouds in the sky right now... only without the leaves on the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 No the greatest of pics, but this is what its like in Andover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, tamarack said: It's been more ZR than IP here at about 120' elev in Augusta, but 10-15 minutes ago I learned that it was mainly IP at home. Temp there up to mid 20s from 17-18 at 7 AM. We were more PL than FZRA about an hour ago, but went to pure FZRA recently. I think the deeper cold air was hugging just up against the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 31F at PSM at 1pm. That's a yuge short term guidance bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 We spiked to 30°F in the last 30 mins from 25°F when the ZR moved in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Just had thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Just now, #NoPoles said: Just had thunder Are you sure it isn't pickles storming in for his muscle milk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Nice cluster of lightning to my SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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