CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Looks like Canadian went east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GGEM is a whiff for a lot of NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 How much for Laconia? Heavy heavy cirrus. I can see the 12z GFS verifying pretty close. Obviously a lot of time to go though. We'll see, but that upstream ridging could screw us interior folk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Uncle ukie might tell the tale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Gotta' admit our area (Greenfield, Keene, Brattleboro) is long overdue. I for one will just enjoy watching you guys analyze the models and hope this thing ends up just inside the BM. You too, Logan 11. We've had a bit of a dought for major storms. Can't complain about snowfall as a whole, since 07-08 and 08-09 were pretty good. But It's going on 4 years without a 12"+ storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow! Ggem is gonna be a bomb for the fishes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 We've had a bit of a dought for major storms. Can't complain about snowfall as a whole, since 07-08 and 08-09 were pretty good. But It's going on 4 years without a 12"+ storm I know you speak the truth, but that sounds so hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Hugg'em (GFS), Whiff'em (GGEM) and Screw'em (EC?) Full blown HWS potentially in the works for this particular model run which is still for a storm 4-5 days away and means little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 F*ck it. I'm in. I might be sending the sled we get our son off the roof Griswold-style. I've got my big toe in, but nothing else. Too far out to get invested. Eagerly awaiting our 1:00 appointment with the Dr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Hugg'em (GFS), Whiff'em (GGEM) and Screw'em (EC?) Full blown HWS potentially in the works for this particular model run which is still for a storm 4-5 days away and means little. ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Uncle ukie might tell the tale There is no tale to be told until its within D2-D3 timeframe or 0z FRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 ???? Hung Weenie Statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well 12z Euro will tell the tale. An eastward shift and we may be looking at a scraper. If it holds, then look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 ???? Historic Whiffed Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 wow last nights HPC discussion was a weenie dream come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 HM over at Accuweather is getting into Big Daddy mode. Say what you will but I like Henry and I like when he is on board for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 wow last nights HPC discussion was a weenie dream come true Eerily similar to our past 'bomb'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Uncle ukie might tell the tale It has a bomb over Hatteras then nearly due east from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Historic Whiffed Storm I'm only speaking about this model run. This whole thing is really entertainment at this point. The GFS and GGEM didn't know it was going to snow tonight until yesterday. They were 300 miles too far east, I'm not really worried about their D5 predictions. I'd like to see the EC stay within the cone, and have the UK shift left a little. Even the lowly NOGAPs coming within 700 miles will be a good signal that we're narrowing the options. Is this going to be Don S FTW? Quite possibly in relation to areas SW of our concern. But that doesn't mean the SE 1/3ish of New England can't get smoked. I'm not saying eastern maine won't get hit/will get hit, not offering an opinion there either way. Will to Kev/Ryan to SE NH to SW ME and points SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I've got my big toe in, but nothing else. Too far out to get invested. Eagerly awaiting our 1:00 appointment with the Dr. Same here...I learned a lesson from the last storm. Don't want to get too invested until Fridiay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Same here...I learned a lesson from the last storm. Don't want to get too invested until Fridiay. Yeah, I think Friday (once I'm done shoveling out from today/tonight's event) would be a good time to strip naked and dive in weenie first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 How come when there's a difference at 500 v SLP that results in a miss it's always the SLP that is assumed to be out of alignment with the 500. Maybe it's the SLP that's right, not the 500? Deep thoughts with Jack Handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 How come when there's a difference at 500 v SLP that results in a miss it's always the SLP that is assumed to be out of alignment with the 500. Maybe it's the SLP that's right, not the 500? Deep thoughts with Jack Handy. Personally I think that whole argument is just weenie talk. Models don't have major misalignments between upper level features and the surface reflection.. if they did they would never even be able to get a 6 hour forecast correct. That's a pretty basic aspect of storm physics models would have to get right in order to predict anything. Usually there's a reason in the upper levels causing the storm to be so far east (like leading PVA that disrupts the storm cyclogenesis). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah, I think Friday (once I'm done shoveling out from today/tonight's event) would be a good time to strip naked and dive in weenie first. haha, well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Personally I think that whole argument is just weenie talk. Models don't have major misalignments between upper level features and the surface reflection.. if they did they would never even be able to get a 6 hour forecast correct. That's a pretty basic aspect of storm physics models would have to get right in order to predict anything. Usually there's a reason in the upper levels causing the storm to be so far east (like leading PVA that disrupts the storm cyclogenesis). Agreed 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Same here...I learned a lesson from the last storm. Don't want to get too invested until Fridiay. At this point if you're on the American wx boards at 1233 pm or posting from you're phone at work ..you're pretty invested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Personally I think that whole argument is just weenie talk. Models don't have major misalignments between upper level features and the surface reflection.. if they did they would never even be able to get a 6 hour forecast correct. That's a pretty basic aspect of storm physics models would have to get right in order to predict anything. Usually there's a reason in the upper levels causing the storm to be so far east (like leading PVA that disrupts the storm cyclogenesis). the reason it is better to look at mid and upper level features in the medium and long range is because models handle the free atmosphere considerably better than lower level and boundary layer features, including surface low pressures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 At this point if you're on the American wx boards at 1233 pm or posting from you're phone at work ..you're pretty invested Son of a... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 the reason it is better to look at mid and upper level features in the medium and long range is because models handle the free atmosphere considerably better than lower level and boundary layer features, including surface low pressures. But I'd say based on experience in the last two years in weird patterns quite often the models are this range do not show mid/upper level features correctly - or they are modeled weakly - that later explain the MSLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Hugg'em (GFS), Whiff'em (GGEM) and Screw'em (EC?) Full blown HWS potentially in the works for this particular model run which is still for a storm 4-5 days away and means little. GFS today and last night's Euro bring quite the blizzard to you and I.....verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.