Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Euro bomb..It's coming Talk about why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Good news that means some even more wound up sure...but the ECMWF ensemble mean has more skill than the operational at this time range...and it's 150 nm SE of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Good news that means some even more wound up I love it being wound up like it is.......as long as we can get it to come off the east coast further north, I'd be really excited., As noted, that's what I'm focusing on. I suspect the mets and the 98% of the board who know more than me are looking at something else to make this a big one. Anyone want to take guesses as to whether it gets pushed back even further in the 12z runs? I don't think we can take any more delays. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I love it being wound up like it is.......as long as we can get it to come off the east coast further north, I'd be really excited., As noted, that's what I'm focusing on. I suspect the mets and the 98% of the board who know more than me are looking at something else to make this a big one. Anyone want to take guesses as to whether it gets pushed back even further in the 12z runs? I don't think we can take any more delays. lol It doesn't seem like the shortwave is slowing down in the modeling anymore. The only reason the Euro is slow from the last night is being storm bombs and occludes so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Anyone want to take guesses as to whether it gets pushed back even further in the 12z runs? I don't think we can take any more delays. lol 6z Ukie is even slower than the EC. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grb-comp.cgi?re=namer&mo=ukmet&va=c500&ft=h72&cu=latest&ge=800x630&ti=UTC&id=&zoom=.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 6z Ukie is even slower than the EC. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grb-comp.cgi?re=namer&mo=ukmet&va=c500&ft=h72&cu=latest≥=800x630&ti=UTC&id=&zoom=.6 Nice, Its getting further out in time, Don't like seeing it stall down by the delmaarva on the op euro but we wait and see the trends........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 6z Ukie is even slower than the EC. http://vortex.plymou...UTC&id=&zoom=.6 The UKMET has been slowest for the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It doesn't seem like the shortwave is slowing down in the modeling anymore. The only reason the Euro is slow from the last night is being storm bombs and occludes so far south. Is the only way to keep that from happening (and not going SE) to have the southern stream come north? Otherwise I can't see how the bombing/occlusion can happen further north. In other words, is the southern piece the real determiner here? These were probably all discussed on the radio show which I didn't stay up for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 00z Euro Ensm. Mean 00z GGEM Ensm. mean 06z GFS Ensm. Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Is the only way to keep that from happening (and not going SE) to have the southern stream come north? Otherwise I can't see how the bombing/occlusion can happen further north. In other words, is the southern piece the real determiner here? These were probably all discussed on the radio show which I didn't stay up for. The phase can happen later so get more of northward/left hook solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 not far from a classic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The phase can happen later so get more of northward/left hook solution. And that i believe is what most of us need......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The UKMET has been slowest for the past few days. Looked faster than the EC at 00z to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Looked faster than the EC at 00z to me. maybe it flopped...i didn't take a close look at it....the 12z that they were discussing on the radio show was the slowest of the global solutions. The HPC discussion yesterday and the day before also noted the UKMET being the slowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 not far from a classic event. No it's not at all. My eyes today will be on the ridge axis mostly. Too far east and it's a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The phase can happen later so get more of northward/left hook solution. I would have though that the later phase would have the system as a whole have a bombing point too far east. So, while it would allow it to attain greater latitude before occluding, it's longitude have it brush the SE areas. That's why I'm pulling for the southern low to exit further north. The shorter mileage between the phase and the occlusion will allow for a much broader expanse of the northeast to be impacted. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Good morn guys.. don't Wanna read thru the thread.. What happened last night with the models? Euro bomb still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Not it's not. My eyes today will be on the ridge axis mostly. Too far east and it's a scraper. Yeah...that's why we probably don't want anymore slowing down. The ridge axis will get too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Good morn guys.. don't Wanna read thru the thread.. What happened last night with the models? Euro bomb still? It is, But further south........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Good morn guys.. don't Wanna read thru the thread.. What happened last night with the models? Euro bomb still? GFS whiffs but more similar to the Euro synoptically. Euro bombs and occludes off the Mid-Atlantic...gives lots of snow to eastern areas. Euro ensembles are further southeast than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah...that's why we probably don't want anymore slowing down. The ridge axis will get too far east. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS whiffs but more similar to the Euro synoptically. Euro bombs and occludes off the Mid-Atlantic...gives lots of snow to eastern areas. Euro ensembles are further southeast than 12z. I think at this point we would love to take either the 00z Op GGEM or Euro at face value. Both would bury us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 how about later next week.... warmup? If we get hit will we see immediate densification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Eggshells. Very fragile opportunity for a big hit. The ridge in the W is not orientated right. As of right now I'd be hedging for a more SE track. i.e. 200 miles SE of BM and bookin out. Things can change, the atmosphere is chaotic, contant flux. Stronger southern stream with earlier phase if it phases at all. These are the elements, featurs I'll be watch for in future model runs. Timing is everything. My hopes are fading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just now getting a look at the 00z Euro. Looks like it phased too early for us? And the upstream ridging is a little close for comfort. Otherwise, nice to see it keep some distance from the GFS et al. with respect to it's handling of the northern stream energy and resultant west Atlantic ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Eggshells. Very fragile opportunity for a big hit. The ridge in the W is not orientated right. As of right now I'd be hedging for a more SE track. i.e. 200 miles SE of BM and bookin out. Things can change, the atmosphere is chaotic, contant flux. Stronger southern stream with earlier phase if it phases at all. These are the elements, featurs I'll be watch for in future model runs. Timing is everything. My hopes are fading I don't think the ridge as modeled now is a problem. Look at February 1978 in your KU book...very similar super ridge centered over Montana with 564 dm heights into southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 how about later next week.... warmup? If we get hit will we see immediate densification? There is a thread dedicated to future discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 maybe it flopped welp...I was going by Plym maps and apparently there's some issue with the 00z 48hr maps. The plotting of the SW s/w is just a little different. These are all UK maps valid 00z 24.http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grb-comp.cgi?re=namer&mo=ukmet&va=c500&ft=h48&cu=previous&ge=800x630&ti=UTC&id=&zoom=.6 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKMET_0z/f48.gif http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif Moral of the story is I'm going to have to double check the Plym maps before using them...that's weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I don't think the ridge as modeled now is a problem. Look at February 1978 in your KU book...very similar super ridge centered over Montana with 564 dm heights into southern Canada. As modeled right now, no, the ridge is in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 welp...I was going by Plym maps and apparently there's some issue with the 00z 48hr maps. The plotting of the SW s/w is just a little different. These are all UK maps valid 00z 24. http://vortex.plymou...UTC&id=&zoom=.6 http://www.meteo.psu...KMET_0z/f48.gif http://meteocentre.c...PN_048_0000.gif Moral of the story is I'm going to have to double check the Plym maps before using them...that's weird. Actually what's supposed to be the 6z run (6am UTC) looks more like the 00z run.http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grb-comp.cgi?re=namer&mo=ukmet&va=c500&ft=h48&cu=latest&ge=800x630&ti=UTC&id=&zoom=.6 So I guess beware of the Plym maps for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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