Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 What does everyone think the Euro will do today? Probably asking for negativity by asking this but so be it I suspect it moves towards its ensembles if the NAM/GFS hold course. NAM looks better to me guess what that highlighted energy is further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Ray was annoyed I think that he might get 1 to 2 feet instead of 2 feet plus. I hate to tell him he may be getting 1-2 inches at best if some of the other models are right. Goodness...all I want is maybe 6 inches around/just after Christmas. I don't set my sights at 2 feet. He lost it last night. personified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 What does everyone think the Euro will do today? Probably asking for negativity by asking this but so be it It should come East but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yep SNE, this is where the NNE / SNE lines get crossed and why when things get closer in there are separate threads, more often than not we in SNE are on the sidelines while you guys are high fiving. Was not much of that last year and so far this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The best thing for you guys in ME (maybe me too) is for the end to come for this wx pattern. The new pattern may not be way below normal in the East, but maybe we can score some snow - whether it be from overunning , etc. Clippers, Overrunning and miller b's i think we both do well in and have not seen any as of yet...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I suspect it moves towards its ensembles if the NAM/GFS hold course. NAM looks better to me guess what that highlighted energy is further west. If model trends don't stay the course or start trending away, We will end up looking like thomas the tank in your avatar.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If model trends don't stay the course or start trending away, We will end up looking like thomas the tank in your avatar.......lol LOL, train wreck central. EC scores a coup or it comes back to the pack without all the amdar data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm pretty sure by the end of today this will still be a day 5.5 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm pretty sure by the end of today this will still be a day 5.5 threat. And that is a concern as well pushing this out further run to run, I should go in the general forum model thread to get my dose of Nam Extropalating......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 accuweather has all of ct in a white xmas nope their wrong again but whats new with them local mets are saying that they are watching but not saying to much yet about the next storm threat that it may take the same path as the last one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm pretty sure by the end of today this will still be a day 5.5 threat. 100% agreed. This will do enough to keep us invested until under 100 hours regardless of the outcome. All we need is for the Euro to score a win like it loves to. I still would not want to be in the bullseye on the GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm pretty sure by the end of today this will still be a day 5.5 threat. Let's look at the big picture and a really big picture, people are keying in on the big L in the Ens and it's location, let's look at 850 inflow and the expansive bombing system. Picture a huge comma head with huge bands of deform. That is what the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM looks good to me. Will be a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Let's look at the big picture and a really big picture, people are keying in on the big L in the Ens and it's location, let's look at 850 inflow and the expansive bombing system. Picture a huge comma head with huge bands of deform. That is what the Euro shows. The thing is so expansive we'd have snow breaking out in SNE with the low still near Norfolk..with NE flow OES would also break out. Again assuming the Euro is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM looks good to me. Will be a biggie. It's better for the mid-atlantic and the southeast due to more downstream ridging and the Rockies ridge being further west..not necessarily here...the 50/50 low is holding tougher longer than the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM looks good to me. Will be a biggie. 5H looking good at a glance, got to run to work...Game stil on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 There's some kind of inharmonic feed-back in the GFS' ongoing processing that shreds phase potentials apart. Seems like it conserves individual vorticity fields too much, bouncing them off one another rather than melding them together in phasing situations. The 00z is a perfect example...it runs the southern stream impulse just perfectly underneath the steeply descending northern stream with its bag of tricks, and just blithely runs right on out to sea where the northern stream shows up for the party and is going, 'wtf - where is everyone', and ends up positively tilted garbage that dissintegrates over the western Atlantic. More times than not the GFS just can't seem to allow streams to interact. Did someone put a function in the model to over-emphasize specifically negative wave interference?? Frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 5H looking good at a glance, got to run to work...Game stil on! When was the game ever off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Ray was annoyed I think that he might get 1 to 2 feet instead of 2 feet plus. I hate to tell him he may be getting 1-2 inches at best if some of the other models are right. Goodness...all I want is maybe 6 inches around/just after Christmas. I don't set my sights at 2 feet. Absolutely incorrect! I questioned that that run implied that much...there was no complaining. I love the "cherry picking" of posts and the subsequent mischracterization of folks' stances.....I said 3x that in the end I probably see betwn 3-8" in mod, toned down soloution. Funny, those aren't quoted. He lost it last night. personified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's better for the mid-atlantic and the southeast due to more downstream ridging and the Rockies ridge being further west..not necessarily here...the 50/50 low is holding tougher longer than the previous runs. It is holding and looks like it trys to back in some precip here at 00z on the 26th.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Absolutely incorrect! I questioned that that run implied that much...there was no complaining. I love the "cherry picking" of posts and the subsequent mischracterization of folks' stances.....I said 3x that in the end I probably see betwn 3-8" in mod, toned down soloution. Funny, those aren't quoted. I would take those totals in a heartbeat, The higher end of course........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Morning JB for all the JB fetishers The GFS out to sea scenario is because of its feedback bias and this is a classic case where it SHOULD BE WRONG. Why? It lives for handing systems off to the east away from the trough axis. However it is trending even further south and east. In the old days, this is a no brainer. The storm last week though means simply ripping it apart without considering it is foolish. But over the years, this has been a big problem with it, and its a problem with the physics in the model. Again you folks in NYC.. What storm in the past 10 years that delivered a foot of snow was forecasted to do that on this model 4-5 days away. Many times, it sees it 7-10 days away, takes it out and pulls it back in. So if its wrong, it will be the same old song. In the old days the european, once locking on, would be a no brainer on this. A lock on is 3 straight runs in a row of a monster and its doing it. Last nights run was wild again. The reason its so good would have to do with its superior physics and handling of feedback. However since a change was made to the model a few years ago, it has not been the guru it once was on the east coast. I dont know if their modelers have seen this or are aware, but operational forecasters are. Just like the GFS has a bias of handing energy out, the Euro has the bias of bundling it too much. However it is scoring its first coup, this is slower.. and in this case slower means stronger, wherever this winds up since it will then give time to clear the playing field in front of it What both models have in common and argue for the big mid atlantic northeast storm is the upper ridge on the west shore of Hudson bay. What happens with this, and why storms can turn up and explode is that the cold advection in back of the storm is strong enough to initiate feedback that deepens the storm which in turn causes warmth to flow in and that gets going in the battle also. That is a nice discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm pretty sure by the end of today this will still be a day 5.5 threat. Lol. So far we've had conflicting opinions voiced as to whether the NAM was nodding toward the GFS or the EC. Which one is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's better for the mid-atlantic and the southeast due to more downstream ridging and the Rockies ridge being further west..not necessarily here...the 50/50 low is holding tougher longer than the previous runs. Will talked extensively of how this will not be a Feb 2010 when I asked last night....I was worried about the same thing. He said it would have to cut off at like GA or SC to screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Third round, 3rd inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Will talked extensively of how this will not be a Feb 2010 when I asked last night....I was worried about the same thing. He said it would have to cut off at like GA or SC to screw us. I agreed with Will...just interpreting the 84 hour NAM...which is pretty ridiculous in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow ... if anything the nightly teleconnector derivatives are even more vectored toward a storm, so let's fail to model one at least excuse imaginable I didn't like the Euro slightly weaker, deeper south placement - shows that there is enough instability in the ability to correctly process for this system, despite a 3 cycle trend of certitude, to imply somehting sinister is really working very hard to f this all up. lol geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Lol. So far we've had conflicting opinions voiced as to whether the NAM was nodding toward the GFS or the EC. Which one is it? it looks nothing like last nights GFS at 96h, it's digging deeper. My guess is it's a split scenario, neither will be right and we begin to hit a new consensus....somewhere between detroit and bermuda... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 it looks nothing like last nights GFS at 96h, it's digging deeper. My guess is it's a split scenario, neither will be right and we begin to hit a new consensus....somewhere between detroit and bermuda... I hope that somewhere is a little east of Montauk. Meanwhile, the new NAM has removed any snow for me through tonight/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 My guess is we hone in on a more classic typical but sweet Nor'easter with the 8-12 type for all with the Lollies for the typical NORH SNNH counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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