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Jtm12180

Hurricane Maria

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49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on Maria's 11 am position (18.4°N, 66.5°W) over northern Puerto Rico almost between Arecibo and San Juan, there is little change in the probability of landfall based on the historic data set and the data set adjusted for the current synoptic pattern. It appears that Maria will likely find a weakness in the ridging to its north-northeast somewhere in the vicinity of 72.5°W-73.5°W.

This scenario is consistent with the 9/28 0z run of the ECMWF. The ECMWF has displayed consistently superior performance throughout the duration of Maria's lifetime so far. By 72 hours, no model has come close to its performance. For purposes of comparison, the GFS has an error that is twice as large as the ECMWF. The lower-verifying GFS, not the ECMWF, has periodically flirted with landfall scenarios on a number of runs over the past two days.

By the time Maria reaches the weakness, it will likely turn northward and then come under the increasing influence of Jose's still expansive circulation. Most of the overnight guidance resulted in Jose's circulation shrinking especially beyond 72 hours, but not enough to allow Maria to escape its influence. Therefore, if the guidance is right, Maria should then turn northeastward and away from the U.S. Coast.

Based on the overall spread in the EPS and GEFS combined with the adjusted data set (1-in-3 probability of landfall), there still remains some possibility of landfall on the mainland U.S. My thinking of a 30% probability may be a bit generous, but there haven't been sufficiently large changes in the guidance for me to change that idea.

Possible factors that could increase Maria's landfall prospects include:

1. More expansive ridging to Maria's north that results in its tracking farther west than currently modeled
2. More persistent ridging  to Maria's that results in a delayed turn to the north toward the influence of Jose's circulation
3. More rapid weakening and/or departure of Jose than currently modeled
4. Slower forward motion for Maria than anticipated over the next 72 hours

Disagree, we want Maria to speed up to increase chances of a US landfall.  Jose is not a big issue, ideally we want Jose to move as far SW as possible to grab Maria and sling it NW.  The faster Maria moves the better chance it has at impacting the US ahead of a massive trough foretasted over the area by next weekend. 

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Since 1851, 15 hurricanes made landfall in Puerto Rico. 60% went on to make U.S. landfall. However, 2/3 of then were at or west of 70°W longitude when they reached 20°N latitude and 78% were at or west of 74°W longitude when they reached 25°N latitude. Almost all of the guidance has Maria passing east of those benchmarks. Therefore, based on those benchmarks and the guidance, there is a much lower likelihood of U.S. landfall than what might be implied solely from climatology.

You kill it everytime with the stats I love it. Gotta figure out what you use to come up with those because that is really interesting.

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15 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Disagree, we want Maria to speed up to increase chances of a US landfall.  Jose is not a big issue, ideally we want Jose to move as far SW as possible to grab Maria and sling it NW.  The faster Maria moves the better chance it has at impacting the US ahead of a massive trough foretasted over the area by next weekend. 

I was thinking of a scenario kind of like Helene in 1958 with a sharp turn to the east with the slower forward motion. The window of opportunity ahead of the trough's arrival is limited. I don't see Jose getting in position to push Maria northwestward onto shore.

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17 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Has anyone heard from Josh at all?

His twitter account has been inactive for the last 8 hours. He had been giving updates at least once an hour prior to that. Here is his last post.

4:30 am. Building groaning. Airplane sounds. Pressure falling like a rock. 967 mb #MARIA @WeatherNation

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7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I was thinking of a scenario kind of like Helene in 1958 with a sharp turn to the east with the slower forward motion. The window of opportunity ahead of the trough's arrival is limited. I don't see Jose getting in position to push Maria northwestward onto shore.

It's often the case on the east coast that it's a race between a trough to the west and the TC coming in from the east- and the trough usually wins.  In this case we have Jose as a third factor.  So Maria has two negative factors to deal with; even if all three factors were equal (which they are not), the highest probability of landfall would be around 33%.

 

What I was wondering, Don, is if Jose can influence Maria's path, can Maria also influence Jose's path (especially since it is stronger than Jose?)

 

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11 minutes ago, Paragon said:

It's often the case on the east coast that it's a race between a trough to the west and the TC coming in from the east- and the trough usually wins.  In this case we have Jose as a third factor.  So Maria has two negative factors to deal with; even if all three factors were equal (which they are not), the highest probability of landfall would be around 33%.

 

What I was wondering, Don, is if Jose can influence Maria's path, can Maria also influence Jose's path (especially since it is stronger than Jose?)

 

Maria might have a little influence, but Jose currently has the larger circulation. Jose's IKE is also quite a bit higher than Maria's despite Maria's intensity. That also suggests that Jose is more likely to have a greater impact on Maria's track than Maria would have on Jose's track. Jose is also leaving a weakness in the ridging that might otherwise be more expansive, thus allowing Maria greater opportunity to find that larger weakness.

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Maria might have a little influence, but Jose currently has the larger circulation. Jose's IKE is also quite a bit higher than Maria's despite Maria's intensity. That also suggests that Jose is more likely to have a greater impact on Maria's track than Maria would have on Jose's track. Jose is also leaving a weakness in the ridging that might otherwise be more expansive, thus allowing Maria greater opportunity to find that larger weakness.

Thanks for that very useful piece of info, Don- it's very intuitive that IKE would also be a factor in storm track and a storm with a larger IKE would influence a storm with a smaller IKE even if the smaller IKE storm had a higher intensity.

 

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Maria might have a little influence, but Jose currently has the larger circulation. Jose's IKE is also quite a bit higher than Maria's despite Maria's intensity. That also suggests that Jose is more likely to have a greater impact on Maria's track than Maria would have on Jose's track. Jose is also leaving a weakness in the ridging that might otherwise be more expansive, thus allowing Maria greater opportunity to find that larger weakness.

That is now, but Maria's circulation is expected to grow as it gains latitude, while forecasts for Jose show it gradually weakening. Forecasts show that Maria will be the dominant feature, by far, in case of an interaction.

0z Euro and 12z GFS

59c2a423a587b_ScreenShot2017-09-20at12_22_38PM.png.cb464e3bb1560d8be5d2697c76713326.png

59c2a42274f7a_ScreenShot2017-09-20at12_23_33PM.png.257f611518c6b73c90889794619c4b75.png

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16 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Eye is still partially inland, but looking at data from recon, pressure is probably up in the 950s

I think the ll vortex is jumping to the coast b/c of the lee cyclogensis.

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8 minutes ago, wxmx said:

That is now, but Maria's circulation is expected to grow as it gains latitude, while forecasts for Jose show it gradually weakening. Forecasts show that Maria will be the dominant feature, by far, in case of an interaction.

0z Euro and 12z GFS

59c2a423a587b_ScreenShot2017-09-20at12_22_38PM.png.cb464e3bb1560d8be5d2697c76713326.png

59c2a42274f7a_ScreenShot2017-09-20at12_23_33PM.png.257f611518c6b73c90889794619c4b75.png

Ultimately, yes. But by then Maria will already have found the weakness in the ridge (due in part to Jose's current expansive circulation) and Jose's remaining circulation will still have enough influence to assist in Maria's turning out to sea. IMO, it's no coincidence that the earlier GFS runs that showed Maria posing the greatest chance of landfall were those that also featured much faster weakening in Jose, along with its faster departure from the scene so to speak.

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33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

His twitter account has been inactive for the last 8 hours. He had been giving updates at least once an hour prior to that. Here is his last post.

4:30 am. Building groaning. Airplane sounds. Pressure falling like a rock. 967 mb #MARIA @WeatherNation

I'm guessing the cell towers might be out on the SE side of the island where he was.  This will probably be one of his more unpleasant chases.  Might take awhile for him to get back to San Juan.  Getting a flight out of the island might take awhile too.  

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8 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

I think the ll vortex is jumping to the coast b/c of the lee cyclogensis.

Visible shows the eye is almost fully offshore now. When recon approached, they got into part of the eye, but winds were still above 20 kts in there. Eye looks big, probably around 30 nm or so. Highest winds were 89FL/87SFMR, but I expect higher winds in the NE quad. My WAG is low end cat 3 right now.

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Ultimately, yes. But by then Maria will already have found the weakness in the ridge (due in part to Jose's current expansive circulation) and Jose's remaining circulation will still have enough influence to assist in Maria's turning out to sea. IMO, it's no coincidence that the earlier GFS runs that showed Maria posing the greatest chance of landfall were those that also featured much faster weakening in Jose, along with its faster departure from the scene so to speak.

On that I agree.

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In Guayama, on Puerto Rico's southern coast, video clips posted on social media showed a street turned into a river of muddy floodwaters. In the community of Juan Matos, located in Cataño, west of San Juan, 80 percent of the structures were destroyed, the mayor of Cataño told El Nuevo Dia, and half of the municipal employees lost their homes.

"The area is completely flooded. Water got into the houses. The houses have no roof. Most of them are made of wood and zinc, and electric poles fell on them," the mayor told the publication.

In the capital of San Juan, buildings shook and glass windows shattered from the force of the storm. Residents of some high-rise apartments sought refuge in bathrooms and first-floor lobbies, but even those who sought out safe ground found themselves vulnerable.

Buildings that meet the island's newer construction codes, established around 2011, should be able to weather the winds, Rosselló said. But wooden homes in flood-prone areas "have no chance," he predicted.

Macarena Gil Gandia, a resident of Hato Rey, a business district in San Juan, helped her mother clean out water that had started flooding the kitchen of her second-floor apartment at dawn.

"There are sounds coming from all sides," Gil Gandia said in a text message. "The building is moving! And we're only on the second floor, imagine the rest!"

Parts of Hato Rey were underwater. An electric gate for her building in the neighborhood was blown off, Gil Gandia said.

In the lobby of Ciqala Luxury Home Suites in Miramar, a neighborhood in San Juan, Maria Gil de Lamadrid waited with her husband in the lobby as the rain and wind pounded on the hotel's facade. The door of the hotel's parking garage flopped violently in the wind. The sounds of the storm were so loud that it was hard for hotel guests to hear each other speak.

Gil de Lamadrid spent the night in the hotel after evacuating her nearby 16th floor waterfront apartment, which has been prone to flooding during previous hurricanes. But even in a luxury hotel room, Gil de Lamadrid could not evade flooding; on Wednesday morning, inches of water began to seep into her hotel room through the balcony doors.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/20/hurricane-maria-takes-aim-at-puerto-rico-with-force-not-seen-in-modern-history/?utm_term=.13ca24280b97

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4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Before going on to US impact, does this have appeared to be historically destructive storm in PR? Seeing pretty spotty information.

TWC said 4 to 6 months to get electricity up for the entire island which doesn't have power now. Just that alone is destructive to everyday life for millions of people. 

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The TV cameras are all centered on San Juan, but I can't imagine what devastation we'll see from the rest of the island, in poor communities not built to withstand a major hurricane and flood prone areas. The island is also bankrupt financially. 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In Guayama, on Puerto Rico's southern coast, video clips posted on social media showed a street turned into a river of muddy floodwaters. In the community of Juan Matos, located in Cataño, west of San Juan, 80 percent of the structures were destroyed, the mayor of Cataño told El Nuevo Dia, and half of the municipal employees lost their homes.

"The area is completely flooded. Water got into the houses. The houses have no roof. Most of them are made of wood and zinc, and electric poles fell on them," the mayor told the publication.

In the capital of San Juan, buildings shook and glass windows shattered from the force of the storm. Residents of some high-rise apartments sought refuge in bathrooms and first-floor lobbies, but even those who sought out safe ground found themselves vulnerable.

Buildings that meet the island's newer construction codes, established around 2011, should be able to weather the winds, Rosselló said. But wooden homes in flood-prone areas "have no chance," he predicted.

Macarena Gil Gandia, a resident of Hato Rey, a business district in San Juan, helped her mother clean out water that had started flooding the kitchen of her second-floor apartment at dawn.

"There are sounds coming from all sides," Gil Gandia said in a text message. "The building is moving! And we're only on the second floor, imagine the rest!"

Parts of Hato Rey were underwater. An electric gate for her building in the neighborhood was blown off, Gil Gandia said.

In the lobby of Ciqala Luxury Home Suites in Miramar, a neighborhood in San Juan, Maria Gil de Lamadrid waited with her husband in the lobby as the rain and wind pounded on the hotel's facade. The door of the hotel's parking garage flopped violently in the wind. The sounds of the storm were so loud that it was hard for hotel guests to hear each other speak.

Gil de Lamadrid spent the night in the hotel after evacuating her nearby 16th floor waterfront apartment, which has been prone to flooding during previous hurricanes. But even in a luxury hotel room, Gil de Lamadrid could not evade flooding; on Wednesday morning, inches of water began to seep into her hotel room through the balcony doors.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/20/hurricane-maria-takes-aim-at-puerto-rico-with-force-not-seen-in-modern-history/?utm_term=.13ca24280b97

Until helicopters can survey damage it is impossible to know exactly how bad this storm was.  my guess is that it is going to be catastrophic.  The media has been camped out at the best hotels in San Juan.  When I visited Puerto Rico and toured the countryside there were so many poor towns with crappy construction.  These vast areas are where the real damage will be.  Power is out so information will be very spotty for a couple of days.  Also the power grid is so exposed.  Unlike the US mainland with Irma you can't just bring in crews from other areas.  Power will be out for many weeks, months..   Also lets not forget Dominica.  I haven't even looked today to see what exactly happened there.  

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4 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

TWC said 4 to 6 months to get electricity up for the entire island which doesn't have power now. Just that alone is destructive to everyday life for millions of people. 

Thanks, seems often in these treads people pop onto where's next and if the place isn't completely wiped off the map it could've been worse. Appreciate the posts and thoughts and hope that people of Puerto Rico receive the aid that they need.

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Quote

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 18:00Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 
Storm Number & Year: 15 in 2017
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 17:40:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°32'N 66°56'W (18.5333N 66.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 58 statute miles (93 km) to the W (279°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,744m (9,003ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 76kts (~ 87.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 22° at 85kts (From the NNE at ~ 97.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the W (271°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 960mb (28.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Poorly Defined
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 102kts (~ 117.4mph) which was observed 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the NE (45°) from the flight level center at 17:50:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 205° at 11kts (From the SSW at 13mph)

 

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17 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Until helicopters can survey damage it is impossible to know exactly how bad this storm was.  my guess is that it is going to be catastrophic.  The media has been camped out at the best hotels in San Juan.  When I visited Puerto Rico and toured the countryside there were so many poor towns with crappy construction.  These vast areas are where the real damage will be.  Power is out so information will be very spotty for a couple of days.  Also the power grid is so exposed.  Unlike the US mainland with Irma you can't just bring in crews from other areas.  Power will be out for many weeks, months..   Also lets not forget Dominica.  I haven't even looked today to see what exactly happened there.  

Unfortunately, the aerial views look like Homestead after Andrew.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/dominica-pictures-show-total-destruction-after-hurricane-maria-n802931

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