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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

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WFOR talking about the lack of reports from Big Pine Key. The Tweet above sounds like the awful answer.

 

 

Generally I hate trying to use social media for this stuff, but just searching the hashtag #bigpinekey on twitter is sobering. Mostly people looking for any word of loved ones.

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I noted a Miami Herald story quoted Monroe County EM as saying they have Dmort teams headed there.  A disaster mortuary team is used for a mass casualty event. They are used to hold and ID victims. The population of Monroe Co is about 77 K. I wonder how many left the chain and went inland?

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1 minute ago, Fast11 said:

I noted a Miami Herald story quoted Monroe County EM as saying they have Dmort teams headed there.  A disaster mortuary team is used for a mass casualty event. They are used to hold and ID victims. The population of Monroe Co is about 77 K. I wonder how many left the chain and went inland?

I heard a lot of stories of people staying, one of my friend's friend stayed in Key Largo and didn't leave. Haven't talked to him since the cane hit though. 

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The rainfall aspect of this storm hasn't been much talked about (probably in light of Harvey's astronomical totals), but we're pushing 10 inches east of Orlando and FFW states expectation of 2-4 more with this next band. Probably had as much to do with my oaks toppling as the wind.


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1 minute ago, Clyde said:

The rainfall aspect of this storm hasn't been much talked about (probably in light of Harvey's astronomical totals), but we're pushing 10 inches east of Orlando and FFW states expectation of 2-4 more with this next band. Probably had as much to do with my oaks toppling as the wind.


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Could get a severe inland flooding event in GA too. 

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For those hoping that the more east track leads to less serious conditions downstream I have some news. At the 10am update Irma's pressure was 929mb. 6 hours after that, at 4pm, the first update after landfall (25 minutes after landfall), the pressure was 940mb. And 6 hours after that, at 10pm, the pressure has only crept up to 948mb. I don't see any evidence that being over land is helping Irma to dramatically unwind faster.

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It could be very bad in the Keys, but she nnhe absence of cell service, a lot of these initial third-hand reports will turn out to be hyperbole. I followed the reports for two days of news out of St. Barths, including a whole Facebook group full of desperate people looking to reach people on the island. The early reports turned out to be BS. Nobody died. Until cell service is restored, most of the info will be pure rumor. We can hope...

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3 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

For those hoping that the more east track leads to less serious conditions downstream I have some news. At the 10am update Irma's pressure was 929mb. 6 hours after that, at 4pm, the first update after landfall (25 minutes after landfall), the pressure was 940mb. And 6 hours after that, at 10pm, the pressure has only crept up to 948mb. I don't see any evidence that being over land is helping Irma to dramatically unwind faster.

 

Indeed. WV loops show bursts of convection both near the center of circulation and in the huge feeder band that's building: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-10

That feeder band is out over high CAPE (3k+ to 4k+ the whole way) water and is rapidly turning this system into a significant rainfall event for the NE side of FL. I've been keeping my eye on JAX loop and flood levels:

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/fl/jacksonville/jax/?region=pie&MR=1

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jax&fcst_timeframe=0&current_color=all&current_type=all&fcst_type=obs&conus_map=d_map&center_point_lat=30.609549999999484&center_point_lon=-82.2711189999986&default_zoom=8&marker=false&refresh=true

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Just now, hooralph said:

It could be very bad in the Keys, but she nnhe absence of cell service, a lot of these initial third-hand reports will turn out to be hyperbole. I followed the reports for two days of news out of St. Barths, including a whole Facebook group full of desperate people looking to reach people on the island. The early reports turned out to be BS. Nobody died. Until cell service is restored, most of the info will be pure rumor. We can hope...

Here is your difference, though. St Barths is a pretty remote island separated from its country. We're talking about the straits of a US state. 

Hopefully you're correct and its really just nothing, though. 

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Looking at high res. radar doesn't it look like Irma is looking more organized than a couple of hours ago?  The deepest convection is almost wrapping around a center again?  Sure not weakening very quickly..

That remnant eye wall area is about to go into the 75/4 corridor there are some populated areas there such as Wesley Chapel and Land O'Lakes and east into Plant City and Lakeland

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2 minutes ago, aperson said:

 

Indeed. WV loops show bursts of convection both near the center of circulation and in the huge feeder band that's building: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-10

That feeder band is out over high CAPE (3k+ to 4k+ the whole way) water and is rapidly turning this system into a significant rainfall event for the NE side of FL. I've been keeping my eye on JAX loop and flood levels:

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/fl/jacksonville/jax/?region=pie&MR=1

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jax&fcst_timeframe=0&current_color=all&current_type=all&fcst_type=obs&conus_map=d_map&center_point_lat=30.609549999999484&center_point_lon=-82.2711189999986&default_zoom=8&marker=false&refresh=true

Brown ocean possibly having an effect maybe?

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I heard a lot of stories of people staying, one of my friend's friend stayed in Key Largo and didn't leave. Haven't talked to him since the cane hit though. 

 

 

My family lived in the Keys for a long time. They quickly adopted the "Real Keys people don't evacuate" ethos. Stayed for the flooding of their home in Wilma. Etc. Unfortunately it's a real phenomenon.

 

I have a decades-estranged alcoholic uncle who, last I knew, lived in Big Pine. He was exactly the type who probably stayed.

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1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

Brown ocean possibly having an effect maybe?

No idea. I'm way too much of a hobbyist to know to what extent terrain and water buildup effects could contribute to BOE here. My naive opinion is that the pass near Lake Okeechobee helped prevent a more rapid weakening.

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4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Here is your difference, though. St Barths is a pretty remote island separated from its country. We're talking about the straits of a US state. 

Hopefully you're correct and its really just nothing, though. 

But without power, outbound communication would be dependent on cell service, which is probably also down, rendering them like a remote Caribbean island for the time being.

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Just now, thess said:

 


Anything specific, or power outages?

 

No, I'm judging off of potential widespread tree damage. Not sure how that'll affect disney though

2 minutes ago, hooralph said:

But without power, outbound communication would be dependent on cell service, which is probably also down, rendering them like a remote Caribbean island for the time being.

Point made

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The cell towers are in jeopardy of collapse once you start getting into the 120-130 mph range, so it's a good bet that cell service is problematic in the Keys right now.  I saw some reports of towers down around Naples, and we know they had gusts in the 130-140 mph range.

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17 minutes ago, hooralph said:

It could be very bad in the Keys, but she nnhe absence of cell service, a lot of these initial third-hand reports will turn out to be hyperbole. I followed the reports for two days of news out of St. Barths, including a whole Facebook group full of desperate people looking to reach people on the island. The early reports turned out to be BS. Nobody died. Until cell service is restored, most of the info will be pure rumor. We can hope...

St Barts has higher elevation (up to 800-850' above sea level) and the keys are no higher than 20' above sea level throughout all the keys.  It is going to be rough, especially given they were expected to get a 10-15' surge closest to landfall.

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6 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

No, I'm judging off of potential widespread tree damage. Not sure how that'll affect disney though

Point made

Disney reopened fairly quickly after Charley. My guess would be something similar this time, but we'll see.  This is a longer duration of damaging winds.

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1 hour ago, jmg378s said:

I dunno, I probably made a mistake somewhere, but I get about 57kts?

I got 52.89 kt (27.21 m/s) when I used 1.128 kg/m3 density, due to lowered pressure. It's kinda cool when scientific theories can be close to reality.

 

With regard to storm surge (or anti-storm surge,) does anyone know if Tampa Bay's water has returned after having low water? Just wondering how the ocean responded. I personally have seen two low-water events in my life- a seiche on Lake Erie, where the water went about 3 ft down. I saw a lack of water after Hurricane Bertha (96), at Myrtle Beach, as the ocean must have responded to the hurricane pulling northeastward.

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Disney reopened fairly quickly after Charley. My guess would be something similar this time, but we'll see.  This is a longer duration of damaging winds.

 

 

I'm also wondering how fast the gazillion power outages will be resolved. Anecdotal reports from a travel board I was on earlier (but got banned from for engaging in the 'morality of storms' debate, sigh) had power flickering even at the on-site Disney resorts. I can't remember if Disney has, like, their own power plants or something.

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