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Tropical Storm Jose


NortheastPAWx

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49 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Anyone watching Jose?  Going through RI and could become a major too.  All kinds of crazy possibilities in the long term.  Perhaps a threat for us in New England way down the road?

Of course. But like you said, so much to sort through with it.

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Jose is likely to track about 2 deg lat and 2 deg lon northeast of Barbuda. What un-luck, high surf right after a Category 5 hit on Barbuda. This seems to be pretty impressive. HWRF indicates CAT 3, but it will certainly track over some of the same water that Irma has tracked over. I would imagine that Irma has cooled the ocean 0.5 deg C in some spots.

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Jose is likely to track about 2 deg lat and 2 deg lon northeast of Barbuda. What un-luck, high surf right after a Category 5 hit on Barbuda. This seems to be pretty impressive. HWRF indicates CAT 3, but it will certainly track over some of the same water that Irma has tracked over. I would imagine that Irma has cooled the ocean 0.5 deg C in some spots.

As a whole as in within a 200nm area of Irmas path yes. But I would think right where the core went a 3c or more decrease. Jose needs to stay as far away from that strip of water as possible 

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Based on forecast track, Jose would intersect Irma's path where the 26° isotherm was below 70 meters. Irma had decent forward motion. Though some upwelling did occur and the immediate surface SSTs can be expected to have dropped 1°C, it will be at least 3 days before Jose's core will cross Irma's wake. Those SSTs may moderate some from depth. I don't think it will prevent Jose from remaining a major hurricane if it reaches that intensity prior to intersection.

 

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Really sucks for the Northern Islands


 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...JOSE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY...
...WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 50.6W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
islands of Antigua and Barbuda.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
islands of Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the islands of Saba and St. Eustatius
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27 minutes ago, JC-CT said:
32 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:
I wouldn't be surprised if this turned out to be sandy type storm. Look what the GFS 18z shows. Still wait to early but Jose could get real interesting too!
 

Your model really failed us this time.

I just looked at the 18Z GFS, it stalls Jose then takes it south then takes the Sandy route, but that  is in the la la land part of the run.

 

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