Major Hurricane Irma

[NJwx85]

The ULL cuts off near Greenland acting as a 50/50 block and Irma heads towards the TN valley.

[TriPol]

I've been sitting here defending the GFS for days now against the EURO, but this run makes zero sense whatsoever. In the entire recorded history of tropical systems, has any run hit the tip of Florida and run northward, parallel to the eastern coastline? I've never seen anything like this before and that kind of a hard right turn is absolutely impossible.  Perhaps it would rake Cuba more and turn northward toward the Tampa area, but even that's a bit of a stretch. Wow.

[Wow]

Got a 969mb storm just east of ATL... dirty side is all over SC

[LakeEffectKing]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

I've been sitting here defending the GFS for days now against the EURO, but this run makes zero sense whatsoever. In the entire recorded history of tropical systems, has any run hit the tip of Florida and run northward, parallel to the eastern coastline? I've never seen anything like this before and that kind of a hard right turn is absolutely impossible.  Perhaps it would rake Cuba more and turn northward toward the Tampa area, but even that's a bit of a stretch. Wow.

Stop....it's not impossible, and there are many storms that have taken hard turns.  They slow down for a few hours and then turn.

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That has occurred before.  Or systems barely weaken over S FL due to basically being over water.  Wilma barely budged as it crossed.

Ok, Wilma made a hard right turn into South Florida when it was anticipated to hit Tampa... but still. Wow. What a mess.

[Mountain_Patch]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I've been sitting here defending the GFS for days now against the EURO, but this run makes zero sense whatsoever. In the entire recorded history of tropical systems, has any run hit the tip of Florida and run northward, parallel to the eastern coastline? I've never seen anything like this before and that kind of a hard right turn is absolutely impossible.  Perhaps it would rake Cuba more and turn northward toward the Tampa area, but even that's a bit of a stretch. Wow.

Donna.

EDIT: added photo of path.

[Wow]

A lot of flash flooding for W NC with the center passing to the west.

[jojo762]

All this "the model is so wrong and makes no sense" talk against both the GFS and euro is hilarious. 

[TriPol]

Just now, Mountain_Patch said:

Donna.

I stand corrected. It's rare.

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

I've been sitting here defending the GFS for days now against the EURO, but this run makes zero sense whatsoever. In the entire recorded history of tropical systems, has any run hit the tip of Florida and run northward, parallel to the eastern coastline? I've never seen anything like this before and that kind of a hard right turn is absolutely impossible.  Perhaps it would rake Cuba more and turn northward toward the Tampa area, but even that's a bit of a stretch. Wow.

Ya very high chance that absolutely doesn't happen. The trend is interesting though, keeps going SW with each run. Curious to see if this can make it into the eastern GOM before doing the hard turn NE in future runs.

[Stebo]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That has occurred before.  Or systems barely weaken over S FL due to basically being over water.  Wilma barely budged as it crossed.

Katrina strengthened going across S Florida.

[MattPetrulli]

So 00z GFS pretty much devastates a good portion of the SE one way or another. 

[TellicoWx]

Not saying this run is right lol...but a few GEFS members showed something similar earlier

[Bostonseminole]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The ULL cuts off near Greenland acting as a 50/50 block and Irma heads towards the TN valley.

over greenland?  

[TPAwx]

Good thing this is just an op run with the panels of concern at 150h+, so it likely won't verify, but this was a difficult model run to watch in terms of the trail of casualties, property damage, economic impact, and reshaping of cultural and historic places that you assume would result.

[LandofLincoln]

3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

All this "the model is so wrong and makes no sense" talk against both the GFS and euro is hilarious. 

The models seems just as confused as we are

[packbacker]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Not saying this run is right lol...but a few GEFS members showed something similar earlier

Several EPS members did too...in fact the EPS mean track looked a lot like that.  

[NCWeSU]

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

If it goes ashore, it doesn't look to go ashore but ride right along it also a circulation this massive wouldn't be affected as greatly compared to a smaller storm.

I find it incredibly hard to believe that a major hurricane is going to keep its status with not only land friction and shallow water issues playing a high impact, but also high topography playing a significant role.

[Jaguars]

If this run ever verified (which I somewhat highly doubt and absolutely pray doesn't happen) goodbye Florida for 5 years

[Wow]

Looking back at the 18z GEFS mean low track, it is very close to the 0z. Just a bit more SW of it.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

11 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Katrina strengthened going across S Florida.

I was wrong about the placement of the center. It seems to still be over water when it dropped to under 900. 

Still, I didn't know that about Katrina. Thanks for sharing. 

[Derecho!]

13 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I've been sitting here defending the GFS for days now against the EURO, but this run makes zero sense whatsoever. In the entire recorded history of tropical systems, has any run hit the tip of Florida and run northward, parallel to the eastern coastline? I've never seen anything like this before and that kind of a hard right turn is absolutely impossible.  Perhaps it would rake Cuba more and turn northward toward the Tampa area, but even that's a bit of a stretch. Wow.

Turns like that are entirely possible and have happened. 

There is nothing remotely unrealistic about that turn other than being in that precise location and angle. It's not any more or less realistic than any other turn. 

[TellicoWx]

Only thing I'm taking away from these runs is whenever it decides to turn North, it's going to make a sharp turn. Whether that's OTS, along the coast, or in the Eastern gulf

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Only thing I'm taking away from these runs is whenever it decides to turn North, it's going to make a sharp turn. Whether that's OTS, along the coast, or in the Eastern gulf

At this point? It might make that turn in the bay of campeche. I'm looking forward to getting recon data ingested with the model runs to have a more precise idea of where Irma is headed.

[Jaguars]

Model windshield washing has gone fully into effect from one spectrum to the other.  Does the trend west end now or does this steam right into the gulf.  I suspect this is close to the end of the west trends, just a hunch.

[TellicoWx]

Not saying this is Katrina in anyway, but wasn't it suppose to make a hard turn toward the Panhandle, but instead turned more gradually into La/MS. Might be wrong about that.

[Windspeed]

I find it incredibly hard to believe that a major hurricane is going to keep its status with not only land friction and shallow water issues playing a high impact, but also high topography playing a significant role.

GFS is obviously not handling intensity correctly. We've been scolding it profusely for days.

[Hoosier]

Looks like UKMET is over Cuba at 144 hrs.

[Windspeed]

Though obviously the attention-grabbing landfall and interaction up the entire Florida peninsula makes it hard to focus on the driving features, still must point out.

 

Clearly the trough lifts faster and the 500mb heights northeast of Irma while in the Bahamas are enough to allow the trough to miss. Also the GFS as with the ECMWF continues to close off an upper trough / cutoff over the southern MS/TN Valley. If (and big if this far out) that feature does resolve, it becomes a critical steering feature whether Irma is still down in the southern Bahamas, near Florida or north of Bahamas. Will be an important feature to see resolve IRL.

 

The GFS had shown a Carolina landfall with some consistency the past 6-7 runs. But even with consistency there can be huge changes in track with just a few minor changes in the exiting trough. Still a long way to go. We're probably going to have to wait until Irma is actually is nearing the Bahamas before we stop seeing huge shifts in track modeling on the operational runs. Yes, it's going to be a long week.

[Z-Cast]

Anyone discussing Cuba interaction (not talking about the current UKMet run) needs to know that the mountains line the south of the island, not the northern end.