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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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Irma could end up as a stronger version of Ike for Florida, which will mean widespread, catastrophic damage for many. 

It's potential energy could be up to 6 times greater than Andrew and like Katrina this may end up being a mid Cat 4 storm with a Cat 5 surge. 

What I hope doesn't happen is that large eye clears out and the storm starts to reintensify because then no one on Florida will be safe. 

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The last two NHC track adjustments could be a significant saving grace for SE FL. Still too early to make that call though. Today and tonight will be very important.

Also, one item that is being overlooked in the discussion about engineering thresholds is the impact of wind-borne debris. Once you get up into the Cat 4 and esp. Cat 5 range, debris becomes a big problem and the risk of structural failures greatly increases. Let's hope that Miami-Dade can avoid the eyewall.

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1 hour ago, AlaskaETC said:

Not much. The NAM should be ignored when dealing with tropical systems. 

The NAM should not be ignored when looking at tropical systems. Would I rely on it to make a prediction on where Irma is going to wind up? No. But it's a useful tool for looking at h5 in the short term. Where is the position of the ULL? Is it digging? How fast is it pulling out? How strong is the ridging?

People have been posting the HMON for a week now. It's uncoupled. So why are they looking at it? Well it a hurricane model, but more importantly they are looking for consensus.

The best mets look at every piece of the puzzle to come up with forecasts and predictions. No one should be tossing anything of use unless they get a model diagnostic discussion from NWS telling them there were issues with a model run. 

People (myself included) look at the Euro, GFS, HWRF, etc because they are your workhorses, but we need to look at everything to get a better picture. If not, what's the point? Lets just shut down the site, stop giving out met degrees, and show a blend of the Euro/GFS for every storm. 

 

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5 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

Not denying that. Just stating the hurricane will continue to make adjustments in location for at least 24 more hours.

No doubt, to say Palm Beach county is maybe out of the woods(yes someone said that here) yet based on a computer model is ludicrous.  Models will ingest more data today and tomorrow and in 24hrs we maybe looking at a swing of 50 miles back east or a continued jog west. This forum is funny, you have one post..She looks to be weakening, next post says she looks to be strengthening.  It's comical at times, people biases, or a bit of wishcasting wanting the storm stronger or coming their direction for some drama.  Winter around here is really hilarious.

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Irma could end up as a stronger version of Ike for Florida, which will mean widespread, catastrophic damage for many. 

^^^^Hot take

ike was a cat 2 and landfall and this is going to be a 4.  Of course it's going to be stronger than Ike. 

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1 minute ago, jasons said:

The last two NHC track adjustments could be a significant saving grace for SE FL. Still too early to make that call though. Today and tonight will be very important.

Also, one item that is being overlooked in the discussion about engineering thresholds is the impact of wind-borne debris. Once you get up into the Cat 4 and esp. Cat 5 range, debris becomes a big problem and the risk of structural failures greatly increases. Let's hope that Miami-Dade can avoid the eyewall.

Completely disagree. You do not want SE FL in the RFQ. Right now that is where it sits.

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Irma could end up as a stronger version of Ike for Florida, which will mean widespread, catastrophic damage for many. 

It's potential energy could be up to 6 times greater than Andrew and like Katrina this may end up being a mid Cat 4 storm with a Cat 5 surge. 

What I hope doesn't happen is that large eye clears out and the storm starts to reintensify because then no one on Florida will be safe. 

FWIW, 12z RGEM went way west, now well off the SW coast and heading up the W coast of FL.

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1 minute ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

The NAM should not be ignored when looking at tropical systems. Would I rely on it to make a prediction on where Irma is going to wind up? No. But it's a useful tool for looking at h5 in the short term. Where is the position of the ULL? Is it digging? How fast is it pulling out? How strong is the ridging?

People have been posting the HMON for a week now. It's uncoupled. So why are they looking at it? Well it a hurricane model, but more importantly they are looking for consensus. The

The best mets look at every piece of the puzzle to come up with forecasts and predictions. No one should be tossing anything of use unless they get a model diagnostic discussion from NWS telling you there were issues with a model run. 

People (myself included) look at the Euro, GFS, HWRF, etc because they are your workhorses, but we need to look at everything to get a better picture. If not, what's the point? Lets just shut down the site, stop giving out met degrees, and show a blend of the Euro/GFS for every storm. 

 

It's been said here by people more knowledgeable than I am that the NAM has little use for tropical systems, H5 or not

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Just now, lwg8tr0514 said:

No doubt, to say Palm Beach county is maybe out of the woods(yes someone said that here) yet based on a computer model is ludicrous.  Models will ingest more data today and tomorrow and in 24hrs we maybe looking at a swing of 50 miles back east or a continued jog west. This forum is funny, you have one post..She looks to be weakening, next post says she looks to be strengthening.  It's comical at times, people biases, or a bit of wishcasting wanting the storm stronger or coming their direction for some drama.  Winter around here is really hilarious.

Good post, it will literally just take a minor degree angel change at 79W to make all the difference.

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Question about rate of travel after "the turn": are there factors that would allow Irma to speed up/ slow down as it travels to the north? What factor would most likely affect the rate it travels through FL?

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1 minute ago, rdcrds4 said:

12Z GFS is coming in right now so far slower in time

I would think Slower is bad for East Coast of FL, has more time to get picked up to a N component

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surprised nobody's mentioned the moisture from a weakening Katia , feeding into Irma. 

once it hits Mexico late tonight, some of it's moisture will flow north along the stalled front. 

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2 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

This track is probably a decent scenario for PBI north along the coast.  By no means it is good but look at the alternatives we are facing. 

"Not catastrophic" still means probably 90-100mph gusts there, surge on the beaches and up to 10" rain. That will cause power to go out and tree damage, but not much major structural damage. Miami has it worse since it's further south and closer to the forecast track. This could also all be moot since the track could wobble back east to the catastrophic path just west of MIA to PBI. Still time for that to happen. 

And plenty of people live on the west FL coast too. So one area's relative benefit is to many's detriment. 

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8 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

Completely disagree. You do not want SE FL in the RFQ. Right now that is where it sits.

In terms of surge, it may not make much difference, but in terms on wind damage, it could be very significant. Would you rather be in the eyewall of a strong Cat 4 or not?? 

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3 minutes ago, das said:

Put here for posterity.  150mph, 150mph and 100mph.

2017-09-08_at_11_33.13_AM.thumb.png.251f11646c2ed4c81b41ef1d9ed925d7.png

Fantastic shot. Now that is not something you see everyday. Incredible display of nature flexing it's muscles.

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12 minutes ago, lwg8tr0514 said:

No doubt, to say Palm Beach county is maybe out of the woods(yes someone said that here) yet based on a computer model is ludicrous.  Models will ingest more data today and tomorrow and in 24hrs we maybe looking at a swing of 50 miles back east or a continued jog west. This forum is funny, you have one post..She looks to be weakening, next post says she looks to be strengthening.  It's comical at times, people biases, or a bit of wishcasting wanting the storm stronger or coming their direction for some drama.  Winter around here is really hilarious.

In reality, all the NHC can do is put out a best guess. I was down in FL last year for Matthew. You don't really know the final track until it happens. If trends continue towards the west, it may turn out to bode well for eastern Palm Beach county ... IT MAY ... but to draw that conclusion now based on a run or two of the GFS is not pragmatic. There is a reason why the NHC uses the cone as opposed a guess as to the specific track.

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

"Not catastrophic" still means probably 90-100mph gusts there, surge on the beaches and up to 10" rain. That will cause power to go out and tree damage, but not much major structural damage. Miami has it worse since it's further south and closer to the forecast track. This could also all be moot since the track could wobble back east to the catastrophic path just west of MIA to PBI. Still time for that to happen. 

And plenty of people live on the west FL coast too. So one area's relative benefit is to many's detriment. 

This is going to come down to angle of approach .  

Im done model watching.  Recon will provide the best idea from here until landfall 

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