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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85
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3 minutes ago, delijoe said:

I don't get it.... 0z Monday on the Euro the center is over Vero Beach.  On the GFS it's about 100 miles ENE of that.

Shouldn't these models be in closer agreement this close in...

You're quibblling over 100 miles 3.5 days out?  I'd say that's fair agreement in all honesty given the complexity.  The eventual location will be dependent on track to that area and then the shape, location, and strength of the trough over the NE.  

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2 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

You're quibblling over 100 miles 3.5 days out?  I'd say that's fair agreement in all honesty given the complexity.  The eventual location will be dependent on track to that area and then the shape, location, and strength of the trough over the NE.  

The problem is this 100 miles is the difference between total devastation of the Florida east coast and dodging a bullet.  If the eyewall misses the coast it'll make a huge difference in damage and lives... and hopefully before it reaches SC it weakens enough that it won't be nearly as devastating...

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Just now, delijoe said:

The problem is this 100 miles is the difference between total devastation of the Florida east coast and dodging a bullet.  If the eyewall misses the coast it'll make a huge difference in damage and lives... and hopefully before it reaches SC it weakens enough that it won't be nearly as devastating...

You cannot expect better agreement given the complexity.  Both sets of solutions (and others) are possible given the players on the field.  You may not know if it'll hit MIA until it does or does not.  Unfortunately, planning for Irma will be a PITA.

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The Euro, along with the GEFS, should be enough to convince official/people in Miami Dade to accelerate evac protocols. Very tough around and up to say Ft Myers, which is still east of the projected track but it won't take much of a shift to spell disaster for those areas. Not sure about other areas but here in Tampa gas stations are low or out. It's going to be sheer panic if the Euro or GFS shift West and cause the NHC to adjust the track significantly.

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The motion portion of the NHC 5am discussion gives a good sense of the upcoming dilemma.  Weighting Euro at this point.

 

The initial motion is 290/15.  The hurricane is currently being
steered by the subtropical ridge to the north, and for the next
48 h or so this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in
the forward speed.  After 48 h, a mid- to upper-level trough
digging into the eastern United States is expected to create a
break in the ridge and allow Irma to turn northward.  The timing of
the turn is the most important question and one still filled with
uncertainty.  The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAViGEM are the
models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula.  The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the
middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern
portion of the Florida Peninsula.  The GFS, Canadian, and GFS
Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of
the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States.  The
new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the
Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and
it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern
Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into
southern South Carolina by 120 h.   Users are again reminded not to
focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days
3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively.
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3 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

The Euro, along with the GEFS, should be enough to convince official/people in Miami Dade to accelerate evac protocols. Very tough around and up to say Ft Myers, which is still east of the projected track but it won't take much of a shift to spell disaster for those areas. Not sure about other areas but here in Tampa gas stations are low or out. It's going to be sheer panic if the Euro or GFS shift West and cause the NHC to adjust the track significantly.

It seems like there is some confusion among local residents regarding who should evacuate.  I've heard of some able-bodied Floridians evacuating inland locations outside flood prone areas.  I can understand that if you want to avoid potential inconvenience, power outages etc, but it could contribute to shortages and traffic jams etc, which impact coastal residents who really do need to evacuate

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Even though the model spread amongst the 4 major global models (Euro, UK, CMC, and GFS) was more than it was at 12Z, given that the Euro solution didn't really change from 12Z to 0Z, maintaining that probably catastrophic track right up the SE FL coast, and given the superior Euro verification scores in the 3-4 day timeframe, I'm thinking there's no way the NHC changes their forecast track at 5 am.  i..e., that's a long way of saying I agree with you, lol.  

Yea. But spread aside, I did mention the 0z GEFS members and how that relates to the 0z Euro. 

To me, it's not that important that we have spread; it's knowing what's the main cause of it. We have a potent trough that begins interacting with Irma right as she closely approaches SE FLA. As a result small differences in track --to the south or north-- are being greatly amplified over time. 

But if we determine Irma's position around hr 72 is closest to the 0z Euro--what is the most likely outcome given the UL depiction at that hr across all guidance? To me it results in a first LF close to Miami.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905631742391762944/photo/1

#Irma has now had winds of 185 mph for 33 hrs - no other TC around the globe has been this strong for so long in satellite era (since 1966).pic.twitter.com/RKorceW6nS
 
Previous record was 24 hr set by Supertyphoon Haiyan in 2013.

 

I would think Irma would have been "retired" just for this fact alone.  After what we're seeing from the islands yesterday, it's a given now.  That St. Maarten video someone shared about an hour ago on here is just tearing me up.  Such a beautiful island...damn you Irma! :(

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I feel strongly that SE FL is going to take a direct and I have felt this for days. If you average out the tracks of the GFS and Euro from the last few days the track is very close to the Northern most keys, over Dade County and then back offshore near Palm Beach with a secondary landfall in SC. I also see no reason why Irma won't be at minimum a high end cat 4 on approach to FL, and it could be much deeper and larger than it currently is.

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3 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

So EVERY model has had an East-East Northeast bias with Irma so far:

bia.png

I think this image probably reflects the difficulties in forecasting the speed (i.e. most all have been too slow at those leads), with a touch of north bias in there as well, which is probably tied into the speed errors)

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25 minutes ago, Raine1212 said:

This couldn't not get any closer on head, this is worries me, I don't think anyone is preparing around here. I've noticed we barely get aal11_2017090700_track_gfs.pngmentioned anywhere.

You can essentially eliminate half of those northern/eastern members based on how off they were between 0z and Irma's current position...

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I think this image probably reflects the difficulties in forecasting the speed (i.e. most all have been too slow at those leads), with a touch of north bias in there as well, which is probably tied into the speed errors)

 

If the storm is moving NW, and the models were too slow, shouldn't that cause a SE bias and not a NE bias?

 

Edit, looks like in the short term that's exactly what it is showing.

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:
4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:
I think this image probably reflects the difficulties in forecasting the speed (i.e. most all have been too slow at those leads), with a touch of north bias in there as well, which is probably tied into the speed errors)
 

If the storm is moving NW, and the models were too slow, shouldn't that cause a SE bias and not a NE bias?

The image posted was while the storm was moving due west (and for awhile, WSW)....

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29 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It seems like there is some confusion among local residents regarding who should evacuate.  I've heard of some able-bodied Floridians evacuating inland locations outside flood prone areas.  I can understand that if you want to avoid potential inconvenience, power outages etc, but it could contribute to shortages and traffic jams etc, which impact coastal residents who really do need to evacuate

From what I've been seeing you are correct.  

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