larrye Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, lwg8tr0514 said: No doubt, to say Palm Beach county is maybe out of the woods(yes someone said that here) yet based on a computer model is ludicrous. Models will ingest more data today and tomorrow and in 24hrs we maybe looking at a swing of 50 miles back east or a continued jog west. This forum is funny, you have one post..She looks to be weakening, next post says she looks to be strengthening. It's comical at times, people biases, or a bit of wishcasting wanting the storm stronger or coming their direction for some drama. Winter around here is really hilarious. In reality, all the NHC can do is put out a best guess. I was down in FL last year for Matthew. You don't really know the final track until it happens. If trends continue towards the west, it may turn out to bode well for eastern Palm Beach county ... IT MAY ... but to draw that conclusion now based on a run or two of the GFS is not pragmatic. There is a reason why the NHC uses the cone as opposed a guess as to the specific track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, HO1088 said: Is it possible this storm doesn't make landfall anywhere in South FL? The trend is your friend... Probably unlikely given the forecast 500 mb pattern and now fairly short timeframe involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: "Not catastrophic" still means probably 90-100mph gusts there, surge on the beaches and up to 10" rain. That will cause power to go out and tree damage, but not much major structural damage. Miami has it worse since it's further south and closer to the forecast track. This could also all be moot since the track could wobble back east to the catastrophic path just west of MIA to PBI. Still time for that to happen. And plenty of people live on the west FL coast too. So one area's relative benefit is to many's detriment. This is going to come down to angle of approach . Im done model watching. Recon will provide the best idea from here until landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, HO1088 said: Is it possible this storm doesn't make landfall anywhere in South FL? The trend is your friend... 10% chance of it not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, HO1088 said: Is it possible this storm doesn't make landfall anywhere in South FL? The trend is your friend... Anything's possible, but highly unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 position @ hr 42 virtually unchanged from 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 EWRC is near completion, at least it appears that way on satellite and microwave imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 @48 903 jog NW towards SW Florida Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, CLTwx said: @48 903 jog NW towards SW Florida The Keys just getting absolutely punished during this time frame. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 The 12z GFS comes very close to making a brief landfall in Northern Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdcrds4 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The 12Z GFS has nudged a little and i mean a little to the west. Talking about 10 miles by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 My wife and I are getting concerned for her father who lives on a canal in Port Charlotte. While it's clear they are at risk for ~ Cat 2 winds, it would seem that unless this thing swung WAY around the keys and then made a clear track up the west coast, they should not be at risk for storm surge, correct? (And that would generally be true for other areas up the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hazey said: Fantastic shot. Now that is not something you see everyday. Incredible display of nature flexing it's muscles. Indeed. For the shot in all of it's glory, in a 60 image loop made of VIRRS overnight shots and GOES-16 daytime shots from the excellent CIRA RAMMB Slider product, click here. Beware, it's a massive bandwidth suck........... http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=12897.75&y=6499.625&z=3&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=16&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=20170908133036&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 Hurricane force winds on both coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 GFS is brutal. Eye looks like it comes across in the everglades then goes North. Miami to PBI look like they get the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: This is going to come down to angle of approach . Im done model watching. Recon will provide the best idea from here until landfall I have family living near Lake Worth, and they've been asking my opinion on the effects. I'm becoming a little more optimistic it's not devastating there but still a very rough 18 hours or so. It all really comes down to when the eye takes that north turn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, hooralph said: My wife and I are getting concerned for her father who lives on a canal in Port Charlotte. While it's clear they are at risk for ~ Cat 2 winds, it would seem that unless this thing swung WAY around the keys and then made a clear track up the west coast, they should not be at risk for storm surge, correct? (And that would generally be true for other areas up the West Coast. Latest storm surge warning for that area has 3-6' storm surge in surge prone areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, hooralph said: My wife and I are getting concerned for her father who lives on a canal in Port Charlotte. While it's clear they are at risk for ~ Cat 2 winds, it would seem that unless this thing swung WAY around the keys and then made a clear track up the west coast, they should not be at risk for storm surge, correct? (And that would generally be true for other areas up the West Coast. Yeah, as long as the storm is centered S/E of them it's minor or no surge. What you don't want is it coming in from the Gulf through or North of Charlotte Harbor. Based on the NHC cone, that scenario is possible, so he should be preparing for that contingency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, jojo762 said: EWRC is near completion, at least it appears that way on satellite and microwave imagery. Yeah, the recon also indicates windspeeds are responding a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 One problem with an up the middle track is that both sides of the peninsula will be getting winds off the ocean for the duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: This is going to come down to angle of approach . Im done model watching. Recon will provide the best idea from here until landfall I have family living near Lake Worth, and they've been asking my opinion on the effects. I'm becoming a little more optimistic it's not devastating there but still a very rough 18 hours or so. It all really comes down to when the eye takes that north turn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Still some brightness on ERC analysis. Whether just a secondary or moving is yet to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 I wonder if the closer pass of Jose to the Southeast of Irma is helping to pump the ridge a bit over the Western Atlantic, thus mitigating some of the poleward movement in relation to the trough. Or this could all just be a typical windshield wiper over correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: GFS is brutal. Eye looks like it comes across in the everglades then goes North. Miami to PBI look like they get the eyewall. The eye has also significantly expanded in diameter--to 70 miles-- so areas 50 miles or so from the center could see the outer reaches of the eye wall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 This is insane. One post says Lake Worth is looking better, another says Miami to PBI is getting the eyewall. Jeesh people. How can you draw conclusions from a 10 mi shift in the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, larrye said: This is insane. One post says Lake Worth is looking better, another says Miami to PBI is getting the eyewall. Jeesh people. How can you draw conclusions from a 10 mi shift in the GFS? the solution is to not believe anyone here and just stick to the NWS. even the red taggers can be sketchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: GFS is brutal. Eye looks like it comes across in the everglades then goes North. Miami to PBI look like they get the eyewall. No they don't. It goes west of Lake Okeechobee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, larrye said: This is insane. One post says Lake Worth is looking better, another says Miami to PBI is getting the eyewall. Jeesh people. How can you draw conclusions from a 10 mi shift in the GFS? I'm going by the shift west in the NHC track and the trend of other models. The GFS is still a little east of the consensus and shows a worse impact for PBI. The track also still has plenty of time to tick back east. No one is out of the woods by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, larrye said: This is insane. One post says Lake Worth is looking better, another says Miami to PBI is getting the eyewall. Jeesh people. How can you draw conclusions from a 10 mi shift in the GFS? From Weather.US: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, larrye said: This is insane. One post says Lake Worth is looking better, another says Miami to PBI is getting the eyewall. Jeesh people. How can you draw conclusions from a 10 mi shift in the GFS? They can't, and see above, eyewall expanding the eye could be 1/2 the width of Florida before it's all over. So basically eveyone could be in the poo, Cape Coral to Lake worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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