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About lwg8tr0514

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    Cranberry Township, PA

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  1. Have a trip planed to Marathon Key this weekend. I say stay weak and slide West into the jungles of the Yucatan.
  2. Well maybe this time, like people in So. Ca expecting a 7.0 earthquake, we have a major catastrophe that is waiting to hit a major urban center. I know Katrina, but New Orleans does not have near the population density of the Miami\Dade\Broward\Palm Beach corridor. Maybe it's good thing being in the bullseye 48-24 hours out? Right now Port Saint Lucie to the Keys is anyone's guess, the dead center of the eye looks to be hitting Palm Beach Gardens\Jupiter\Jupiter Island\North Palm Beach\Riviera Beach. I am streaming Miami news and they are throwing around Andrew as an analog, small compact storm with a small wind-field. So maybe Palm Beach gets Cat 4 winds Broward gets much less. I had a home in North Palm Beach Heights and in 2004-2005 I had three storms in 16 months and had to replace my roof twice. Reason for me moving to Western Pennsylvania.
  3. Just love internet tough guys trolling. Got a problem with me friend? I never once mentioned anyone by name here. Let's keep it about the weather and not get personal.
  4. I have not read anything in the Central Pa thread about this AM's models to make me bag it and say it's a 38 degree rainstorm. The GFS model seems to be the only one who wants to be the turd in the punchbowl and say its slop south of I-80, that seems to be an outlier. Now the local mets are calling for 4-8", I just looked at my local weather app.
  5. Boy this thread is quiet, if all the models sh*t the bed I am sure there would be lots of folks here bellyaching. We have a 8+" storm on the way and nada here. Come on folks, take yes for an answer and let's talk about what's coming. I like where we are at not in the bullseye... 72 hours out. Models seem to be coalescing on a solution where most of our precip is of the frozen variety. I think Washington County north gets over a foot.
  6. Been here since 2009 and I caution any newbies lurking ignore most of the posters with 1000+ posts here, they are wrong 75% of the time, the schtick is to mope and complain they are not getting 30" of snow, how G*d is screwing them or some other nonsense. We ran off the real Met(s) a while ago. We are 4 days out and most people whose job it is to know, have no idea what is going to happen. I point back to 2009 and up to 12 hours about 1/2 of the posters were poo-pooing that 30" monster we got(shall I call some you out?). Have you snowblower test run and gassed up and get your salt by tomorrow. We are in for a storm of 8+ inches. How much above 8" who knows. Ignore all the model hugging mouth diarrhea.
  7. And Tampa rarely gets tropical cyclones, last time I think women still wore those garters and stockings. I am sure a Met could lecture us on climatology and why Tampa not a prime place for a TC to pick on, could be topology, features in the GOM, etc that effect steering currents. I think Wilma is a good analog once it gets into the Florida Straits diving almost straight north since we are conjecturing here and doing model hugging.
  8. Looking at the IR, the wobble maybe the beginning of a turn more WNW with more a NW component. Like more of a Cape Sable, up hitting Lake O and up to Orlando. Just not buying the models showing a west coast brush, not many analogs for that. Atlantic storms seem to always want to fight to gain latitude sooner than later, I did read on another board the ridge maybe deteriorating on it's western boundary quicker than expected. Could be one more twist to this yet.
  9. Let's hope the trend continues all the way out in the GOM and no forecasted strengthening. I have family(Mom and Daughter) in Palm Beach and Broward counties, both are scared witless. One thing I must say, not scientific at all, but not being in the bullseye 48 hours out does not give me comfort. Models have a way of reversing, seen it 100's of times, left left left up till 24 hours then a big correction back as real life happens. Like the trend on the models today though.
  10. They can't, and see above, eyewall expanding the eye could be 1/2 the width of Florida before it's all over. So basically eveyone could be in the poo, Cape Coral to Lake worth
  11. No doubt, to say Palm Beach county is maybe out of the woods(yes someone said that here) yet based on a computer model is ludicrous. Models will ingest more data today and tomorrow and in 24hrs we maybe looking at a swing of 50 miles back east or a continued jog west. This forum is funny, you have one post..She looks to be weakening, next post says she looks to be strengthening. It's comical at times, people biases, or a bit of wishcasting wanting the storm stronger or coming their direction for some drama. Winter around here is really hilarious.
  12. 136mph over lake Okeechobee, ummm don't think because of 30 miles with this storm you''l just be raking tree branches off your lawn. I get what you are saying, that 30-50 swath of the MOST intense winds will be right on the eyewall, so yes I concede eye placement could mean someone losing their house or having 15k in repairs. I'm not so sure based on 50+ years with these things that the re-curve doesn't happen sooner. I moved out of South Florida in 2005 after Wilma and she I believe was supposed to miss the peninsula and curve into the GOM, well last minute she recurved and slammed right into the state. Day before Halloween I think, and what was odd, after Wilma the weather cooled, I was cleaning up in a hoodie
  13. Great map to illustrate why bickering over exact landfalls is not priductive, even the Euro solution puts devastating storm surge up Biscayne Bay and hurricane force winds in all of south Florida for hours.
  14. The NHC is still looking at this being a big problem for the EC of Florida. I was watching WPLG in Miami this am and guy from the NHC, they are discounting a serious jog west at this point like cutting across the Keys, like the 1935 no name, and this being a GOM storm. The guy was very, VERY, VERY concerned about SE Florida population centers and less so about this being a problem for Tampa at this point. I like that NHC is not as reactive as some here, getting twitchy at every model run or thing they see on the IR.