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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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1 minute ago, jacindc said:

So, everyone is just tossing the 0Z Euro that went up the *west* coast of Fla.?

 

I don't think anyone is "tossing" very much of anything. This 12z run of the GFS is just slightly east. They are just model runs.

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2 minutes ago, jacindc said:

So, everyone is just tossing the 0Z Euro that went up the *west* coast of Fla.?

 

Nobody should be dismissing anything at this point, except maybe landfall in Texas or Bermuda.

Really can't stress enough to our guests and newer members that a wide range of options is still on the table.  Models will move around with each run.   

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nobody should be dismissing anything at this point, except maybe landfall in Texas or Bermuda.

Really can't stress enough to our guests and newer members that a wide range of options is still on the table.  Models will move around with each run.   

Agreed. I just brought it up because no one in all of the 12z "it's going east" discussions has mentioned the Euro.

 

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Nobody should be dismissing anything at this point, except maybe landfall in Texas or Bermuda.

Really can't stress enough to our guests and newer members that a wide range of options is still on the table.  Models will move around with each run.   

On top of that, with the angle it is approaching at, a 100-200 mile deviation can mean the diffeeence between an outer banks landfall and Panama City.

 

I feel for emergency management folks in Florida. How the heck do you decide who to evacuate when a 100 mile adjustment can mean the difference between a Miami/Tampa landfall? What do you do with folks in the keys? Where do you send them? Just a total nightmare scenario.

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9 minutes ago, Morris said:
163230 1704N 05839W 6965 02754 9623 +099 +099 134145 150 136 075 00
163300 1703N 05840W 6973 02711 9573 +106 +106 138145 151 147 066 00
163330 1702N 05841W 6961 02668 9504 +115 +115 139132 141 160 046 00
163400 1701N 05842W 6962 02616 //// +109 //// 137121 133 160 024 05

How is this to be read? I'm guessing its Time of measurement, lat, long, but what are the other measurements?

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1 minute ago, jacindc said:

Agreed. I just brought it up because no one in all of the 12z "it's going east" discussions has mentioned the Euro.

 

Because the new Euro run hasn't come out yet. 

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Oddly there was an extrapolated pressure of 922.6mb with 35kt winds... and one that was 923.6mb with 15kt winds. Has to be erroneous, that or the core is doing some funky things.

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Oddly there was an extrapolated pressure of 922.6mb with 35kt winds... and one that was 923.6mb with 15kt winds. Has to be erroneous, that or the core is doing some funky things.

Disagree - margin of error around extrap is entirely consistent with observations.

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The outflow has been very impressive all day. Continues to improve and encompass much of the circulation. Unless this fades it only looks to strengthen, which is impressive give the current 180 mph winds. It'll probably get a bump next advisory. What a beauty!

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25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Little taste for those that didn't click.  Much greater resolution available at the link above.

irma6.gif

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The Pressure-Wind relationship that people asked may be an issue with the latitude and restoring forces. IE storms further south may have a higher pressure and stronger winds to correspond, vs a storm higher in latitude.

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2 minutes ago, Bruinsyear said:

The outflow has been very impressive all day. Continues to improve and encompass much of the circulation. Unless this fades it only looks to strengthen, which is impressive give the current 180 mph winds. It'll probably get a bump next advisory. What a beauty!

It's approaching it's hypothesized MPI for the current SST, although the water continues to warm as it moves west, but this should provide at least a nubulous upper bound for intensity.

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1 minute ago, bobbutts said:

Little taste for those that didn't click.  Much greater resolution available at the link above.

irma6.gif

How are you able to make a .gif off that site?

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Amazingly terrifying..... This could if it hits the Miami area and or the Everglades change the landscape for generations.   

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The 12z HWRF has Irma down to 920 at 18z, so fairly accurate.

Hovers Irma in the 910's/920's over the next 60hrs.

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nobody should be dismissing anything at this point, except maybe landfall in Texas or Bermuda.

Really can't stress enough to our guests and newer members that a wide range of options is still on the table.  Models will move around with each run.   

Anything outside the 3 day NHC cone is going to be very speculative.  The error on the 5 day cone is so large that it could be south of Cuba or missing the FL E. Coast.  We can take a hint from the lack of confidence from the best in the biz.

 

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3 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

It's approaching it's hypothesized MPI for the current SST, although the water continues to warm as it moves west, but this should provide at least a nubulous upper bound for intensity.

It's pretty darn close to MPI per charts

 

atlpot.png

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

How are you able to make a .gif off that site?

Screen cap with OBS Studio.. Edit clip in your favorite video editor.  Giphy (website) to convert to .gif.

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Definitely more of a northerly component to the movement of Irma per latest center dropsonde.

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4 minutes ago, Casualbrain said:

It's pretty darn close to MPI per charts

 

 

Historically, quasi-annular long track CV hurricanes get about as close as you can to the theoretical slope of MPI.  Georges did that BitD, also had annular characteristics and was a long tracker in a similar spot.

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I thought this was pretty LOL worthy. It's obviously really far off intensity wise, however it does show Irma staying away from Cuba and deepening rapidly as it approaches FL.

59aedb476d1f6.png

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