BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Landfall at North Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 We very well may see a cat 5, but won't be surprised its more like 915-920mb and the circumference of Gilbert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think some if these consistently modeled insanely low pressures may be the guidance trying to convey that we are going to see this system grow very large, too. Could lead to some dry air entrainment issues, which is pretty common in very large Atlantic hurricanes. Especially on the southern flank, per GFS 500mb RH forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 This thing is gonna tear somethin' up. What a monster depicted. It's like getting a shot of nitro as it heads north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, BlunderStorm said: Landfall at North Myrtle Beach. As a sub-900mb hurricane nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 So now we actually have some consensus with Euro and GFS... and it isn't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, MattPetrulli said: So now we actually have some consensus with Euro and GFS... and it isn't good. I think it's been that way since 00z, hasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just remember, the model output for size of hurricane windfield is in relation to the deep pressure output. More than likely overdone*. However, the poleward exhaust being modeled is pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, Wow said: There's the energy over the deep south... Ridge moving overhead. Going to see a funky movement inland-- or maybe it "stalls" like Harvey did--with this type of pattern it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, MattPetrulli said: So now we actually have some consensus with Euro and GFS... and it isn't good. Let's wait for the next euro, they made landfall at virtually the same spot but had different tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Can anyone remember the last time the EURO/GFS agreed on something a week+ out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Carolinas have always been the most likely destination in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Mid-to-upper low being resolved again over southern MS/TN Valley. Interesting... at that position it significantly increases a Carolina landfall with Irma at that position. But I will reiterate we are still a long way out and cutoffs/ULLs are "iffy" at best at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Carolinas have always been the most likely destination in my eyes. I must say I agree on this statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Inland monster. Hugo-like about 50-75 mi NW of his track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I don't know how useful this product is, but it seems to indicate that the pressure indicated on the GFS is at the very limit or beyond what the environment would support. Regardless I'll take the under on 880's mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 With that kind of ridging. The remnants will probably get pretty far west. There isn't anywhere to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Wow, Irma flies over my head at 977mb well inland. It's eerie to compare it to the path Hugo took. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We very well may see a cat 5, but won't be surprised its more like 915-920mb and the circumference of Gilbert. Question is, will it be that strong at the latitude of the Carolinas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I think a Carolinas landfall is highly probable at this point, the main question is how strong the ridging is and does the storm chug Northwest inland or does it head in a northern direction. So basically an Isabel type track or a Floyd/Irene type track. As of now it's looking like Isabel. As we all now, we are a ways out and the strength of that ridge will likely fluctuate on the models. The take home is that we are looking at a probable major hurricane landfall on the east coast and cat 5 shouldn't be ruled out with the consistently modeled intensities. I'm not buying an out to sea track, not with this ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Gonna bookmark this...NUTS. Bookmark? Heck, I'm saving every image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I think a Carolinas landfall is highly probable at this point, the main question is how strong the ridging is and does the storm chug Northwest inland or does it head in a northern direction. So basically an Isabel type track or a Floyd/Irene type track. As of now it's looking like Isabel. As we all now, we are a ways out and the strength of that ridge will likely fluctuate on the models. The take home is that we are looking at a probable major hurricane landfall on the east coast and cat 5 shouldn't be ruled out with the consistently modeled intensities. I'm not buying an out to sea track, not with this ridge. Is the track also going to be a function of the intensity of the storm? In other words, a stronger storm would promote stronger ridging in response and would create more of an inland track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 the gfs has an intense bias with storms... no way we get an 882 mb hurricane in that spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Historic floods E. KY to Charlotte NC to S. central WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Impressive, especially coming from a model that isn't a hi-res hurricane model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Impressive, especially coming from a model that isn't a hi-res hurricane model. That is the most unbelievable thing I have ever seen! What a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I think a Carolinas landfall is highly probable at this point, the main question is how strong the ridging is and does the storm chug Northwest inland or does it head in a northern direction. So basically an Isabel type track or a Floyd/Irene type track. As of now it's looking like Isabel. As we all now, we are a ways out and the strength of that ridge will likely fluctuate on the models. The take home is that we are looking at a probable major hurricane landfall on the east coast and cat 5 shouldn't be ruled out with the consistently modeled intensities. I'm not buying an out to sea track, not with this ridge. And you don't see the possibility of the ridge changing at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the gfs has an intense bias with storms... no way we get an 882 mb hurricane in that spot Not likely at all, but even if we get it into the 910s or 920s, it's going to be a historic event. Did the Euro have it getting down to around 920? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: That is the most unbelievable thing I have ever seen! What a shot. The only thing that could make it more impressive would be to have those darkest contours wrap all the way around the eye and make it symmetric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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