Hoosier Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, AcePuppy said: So this GFS run.. Yeah. Anyone find this possible? Sure. Well within the potential range of outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 euro into cuba and 18z gfs WAY east offshore fl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Again though the overall consensus is that the core stays north of Cuba. Gotta see what this trough in the east does this weekend and if it is strong enough to erode some of the ridge or if the ridge will hold its ground Again, yes, but my point wasn't that it was headed for Cuba, it was to try to explain why the NHC had a track just north of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Dropsond supports 920mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Well then 18z GFS... looks like we will be staying mainly offshore of FL through 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Well the ridge is rebuilding, so all this means is landfall is probably further Northeast. Maybe the Carolinas or further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 12 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Concentric eyewalls on hurricane hunter radar: That radar imagery does not show much of a moat at all between IEW and OEW. The IEW looks very intense with excellent structure. I am not so certain this couldn't just continue to intensify a little more or at least maintain intensity for quite a while. The diameter of the IEW may even have to shrink some before it begins to show signs of weakening. Per recon, 20nm and 45nm concentric eyewalls: 000 URNT12 KWBC 052157 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017 A. 05/21:38:37Z B. 17 deg 04 min N 059 deg 54 min W C. 700 mb 2399 m D. 144 kt E. 119 deg 9 nm F. 223 deg 145 kt G. 123 deg 11 nm H. 920 mb I. 10 C / 3062 m J. 21 C / 3069 m K. 14 C / NA L. CLOSED M. CO20-45 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. NOAA2 1011A IRMA OB 05 MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 151 KT 313 / 17 NM 21:42:58Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 325 / 10 KTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Well then 18z GFS... looks like we will be staying mainly offshore of FL through 108 She's pulling north at 108 and is just north of Miamis latitude , that's def east of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Anyway, why does the trough just drop due south like this? This never happens.http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Irma moving due N at 114 with its usual sub 900mb pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Are 18z and 06z still known to be bad runs for GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, AcePuppy said: Are 18z and 06z still known to be bad runs for GFS. no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Are 18z and 06z still known to be bad runs for GFS.Maybe but this will out the east coast on notice. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So I guess we just sit on this run of the op GFS and see what the 0z runs look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 That ULL to the NE is really pesky this run, and it's starting to feel the trough over the Canadian Praries. This could do something crazy like try to run it right up the East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck said: Anyway, why does the trough just drop due south like this? This never happens.http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Blocking ridge in the North Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like landfall is coming somewhere in Eastern NC as a very intense cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: ERC Let go of your mind... Feel... breathe.. it's going through PR and Cuba How exactly are you gauging an ERC from this image? And not sure how you know how it will make landfall in those spots. Possibility yes, guarantee no. What's your reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, StormchaserChuck said: yeah, it's still summertime. The setup is absurd in general. There is a time and place to discuss implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just another ensemble member, within the envelope for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Looks like landfall is coming somewhere in Eastern NC as a very intense cane. Probably down by ILM if it keeps going north as it is at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Well this is going straight into the archives along with the VIIRS images of Patricia and Haiyan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 LF ends up in extreme Southern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: LF ends up in extreme Southern NC. Yup, right by ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Per recon, 20nm and 45nm concentric eyewalls:000URNT12 KWBC 052157VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017A. 05/21:38:37ZB. 17 deg 04 min N 059 deg 54 min WC. 700 mb 2399 mD. 144 ktE. 119 deg 9 nmF. 223 deg 145 ktG. 123 deg 11 nmH. 920 mbI. 10 C / 3062 mJ. 21 C / 3069 mK. 14 C / NAL. CLOSEDM. CO20-45N. 12345 / 7O. 0.02 / 1 nmP. NOAA2 1011A IRMA OB 05MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 151 KT 313 / 17 NM 21:42:58ZCNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 325 / 10 KTSThanks. Just based on the structure and recon data, the IEW may be around a while or remain intense through the Leewards. Just really looking for anything that could bring down intensity before landfall in the short term. May take a while to evolve before affecting the core negatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 if this new track would happen what would the implications further up the coast be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Even with a LF that far South TS winds extend well NE up towards the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 It has it strengthening into landfall. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Relative in Ft Myers evacuating, not taking any chances even though its still a decent ways away. Better to leave now while the roads are empty. Better safe than sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: if this new track would happen what would the implications further up the coast be? Not much for areas north of Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.