Major Hurricane Irma

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

I was chatting with someone in Miami about the need to evacuate if the need arises. I sent him the miami-dade zone map http://gisweb.miamidade.gov/communityservices/?ShowWhat=OEM for him to put in his address. He told me it came back green (with no explanation on what green meant) and he thought he was safe. I don't know why they would use green for disaster planning. Green means okay. Anyway, the zones are as follows for anyone in Miami-Dade county. I wouldn't have known without looking it up and he thought he was cool no matter what. 

Quote

The description of Storm Surge Planning Zones is as follows:

Zone A is at greatest risk for storm surge for Category 1 and higher storms.
Zone B is at greatest risk for storm surge for Category 2 and higher storms.
Zone C is at greatest risk for storm surge for Category 3 and higher storms.
Zone D is at greatest risk for storm surge for Category 4 and higher storms.
Zone E is at greatest risk for storm surge from Category 5 storms.

The Storm Surge Planning Zones are used to identify risk of storm surge and is based on all directions of storms. As a storm is approaching, Miami-Dade County Emergency Management will identify which areas should evacuate for that particular storm. Evacuation Zones will be all of or a portion of the Storm Surge Planning Zones. Residents should monitor the media and listen for which areas are being told to evacuate.

 

 

 

 

[salbers]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That is a great site. Are they thinking of adding ECMWF 500 mb height anomalies to the line up?

I have designed and implemented a similar type of site (though not online at present). I wonder if this one can eventually do a few things:

1) Produce animations, by having a number of frames selector.

2) Select model initial times (this could allow construction of dprog/dt's either manually or automatically)

3) Plot a montage showing multiple models side by side in a matrix

Excellent site even as is though, especially with the Euro data being available.

[jojo762]

23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS has a bias to over deepen tropical cyclones since it's "upgrade"  don't take the intensity verbatim.  Shifts in track and upper air features are the key factors to watch right now.  

Given that we are already at ~940mb, or near it at least, <910 seems more than possible if land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba isn't overly deleterious to the system... especially by the time it's been over those "jet fuel" waters in and near the Bahamas for 24+ hours. 

[SN_Lover]

The GFS has done a complete 360 with Irma's position and the pattern still remains unresolved. Seems to be having more and more interaction with decaying energy from a SW in the plains. 0z will be interesting!

[Hoosier]

In case people are wondering, a turn up the spine of Florida as modeled on the 18z GFS would not be without precedent, though obviously not easy to get it to play out just like that.  Hurricane King in 1950 offers an example, and some other hurricanes have almost traveled the length of Florida.  

[NortheastPAWx]

Off-topic, but even if Jose develops the way the GFS is trying to depict, wouldn't upwelling from Irma limit its potential?

[NJwx85]

The 18z HWRF misses PR by a lot, they even miss the outer bands.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Off-topic, but even if Jose develops the way the GFS is trying to depict, wouldn't upwelling from Irma limit its potential?

The interesting thing is that the ridge to the East of Irma could theoretically induce a Westerly flow, however a lot of things are working against Jose, upwelling included.

[Windspeed]

Off-topic, but even if Jose develops the way the GFS is trying to depict, wouldn't upwelling from Irma limit its potential?

 

 

Not right now. The 26° isotherm this time of year is at its deepest under the western Main Development Region, Antilles, Caribbean and Bahamas. Also, Irma is a steadily moving hurricane. It would need to stall in the same location for several days like in the Bahamas for example.

 

[NJwx85]

The 18z HMON misses PR too.

[MJO812]

Can Jose influence Irma by pulling her move east?

[bobbutts]

58 minutes ago, Wow said:

Good thing here is it stays on land the entire ride.. no re-emergence/

Disagree, that puts the major population centers on the right side and puts the wind direction onshore all the way up the coast as well.  I think damage wise it would be much less troublesome off the coast even if that means stronger.  Of course if it's stronger heading up the EC that isn't a good thing for NC or any other destination.

[Windspeed]

Can Jose influence Irma by pulling her move east?

 

As of right now it just isn't close enough. If anything, a potential Jose being closer right now would get it beat down by strong upper level windshear off of Irma's westerly outflow channel.

 

[MJO812]

GEFS has 2 camps

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017090418&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=570

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

you guys need to look at all aspects, not just what the models are saying.

If the disturbance in the gulf forms into a TD  (which it currently looks like it's close to doing) , the moisture flowing out would strengthen the trough along the east coast more than expected...and could cause a further north trend of Irma.    You can already see on satellite and water vapor, moisture is flowing out towards that trough...and all the way up east coast.  

[CamSE-Wx]

The GEFS members really starting to like it going into the gulf. Can't even imagine how strong it would get.

[bdgwx]

120 hour spread in the GEFS is increasing compared to previous runs over the last couple of days. This may be indicating that D5 forecast confidence is decreasing. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Irma looks amazing on the recon radar:

https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/904845686969167877

[Derecho!]

11 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

you guys need to look at all aspects, not just what the models are saying.

Nope. Models are better at hurricane track forecasts than humans. 

[kenavp]

I'm in St. Pete Beach about 30 minutes west of Tampa over here on the Gulf side of FL. Those ensembles are terrifying. This is something I would have been licking my lips over 10 years ago. Oh how things change now that I'm approaching 40 with children, etc. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Looks like a good shift of gefs members going west of FL. Interesting to see if this becomes a trend or stabilizes. 

[jojo762]

5 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

Nope. Models are better at hurricane track forecasts than humans. 

It's been proven time and time again... I liken it to all the folks in here, and I'm guilty of it as well, who state what's "going to happen" in a particular model run because of how things look synoptically during a particular forecast-hour - then just end up being dead wrong.

[Jackstraw]

I believe Windspeed may have commented already about this among others but the timing of a turn north is still  just outside the models skill range.  The trend has been a turn north forever but it keeps getting displaced somewhat farther in time and farther west.   I don't expect a drastic change at 00z when the new data is ingested but I do expect a change especially within the 5 day.  We may very well see a run back east at 120-144.  The current status is showing the parts are beginning to move after being fairly stagnant the last 48 hours. I would like to see some consistency in the 120 hour range of a northward pivot point before I'll start to buy where, if and when. 

[winterymix]

The EURO take this system along the coast just south of Miami and then offshore until the border of GA/SC.

Over time, the 850 mb low ends up in southern Indiana.

This ain't no Harvey, it beats up some coastal towns and commits suicide in the mid-West.

[TPAwx]

6 minutes ago, kenavp said:

I'm in St. Pete Beach about 30 minutes west of Tampa over here on the Gulf side of FL. Those ensembles are terrifying. This is something I would have been licking my lips over 10 years ago. Oh how things change now that I'm approaching 40 with children, etc. 

I feel you.  Not liking the op or ensembles, at all.  Going over the TBT and county emergency and evac info this evening.  

[SteveVa]

SoFlo folks, if tracking winter storms for years has taught me anything, it's that you never want to be in the bullseye 4-6 days out.

In this case that might be a positive thing.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, SteveVa said:

SoFlo folks, if tracking winter storms for years has taught me anything, it's that you never want to be in the bullseye 4-6 days out.

In this case that might be a positive thing.  

Except keeping VA in a blizzard bullseye is akin to keeping sne in a cane bullseye.

Little easier to pull off in Miami.

[jojo762]

1 minute ago, SteveVa said:

SoFlo folks, if tracking winter storms for years has taught me anything, it's that you never want to be in the bullseye 4-6 days out.

In this case that might be a positive thing.  

Being in the bullseye by both the Euro and GFS, as well as the GEFS/EPS/CMC ensembles in addition to several hi-res models is pretty problematic.

[Windspeed]

I just hope people in Florida pay extremely close attention to NOAA/NHC and not a sea of wishcasters and weenies on social media. How the timing evolves and plays out in the modeling and possible future shifts back and forth until we get within the NHC's better forecast skill is going to be hyper critical. The masses throughout the Florida peninsula are going to need to have patience. This is complicated to hell and back this far out, besides getting within the 72 hr range.

[McQuackleton]

8pm NHC Forecast.