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powderfreak

March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

But seriously, weenies arguing over the difference between 17.4" and 17.5" of snow. That's all it takes to jump from orange to red on that map. CAR has 18" we might have 16", big deal.

Every inch matters, it's the only inch you have. 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We've been saying to stick to climo ratios in the warm conveyor. 

what's climo ratios?  I've been thinking maybe 10:1 to maybe 12:1 with the super strong lift

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

what's climo ratios?  I've been thinking maybe 10:1 to maybe 12:1 with the super strong lift

10-12:1 in non-wet snow sounds good to me.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

But seriously, weenies arguing over the difference between 17.4" and 17.5" of snow. That's all it takes to jump from orange to red on that map. CAR has 18" we might have 16", big deal.

Weenies want that Red shading and there Blizzard warning.

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Everyone in the NYC forum is lined up at the GWB passing notes for loved ones to the person behind them.  I am on my way over now.  

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The biggest concern with it is how quickly does it become established and push into the region?  I mean if its like 17z or something that probably eats away like 3-4''+ of snow for many.  If it holds off until later definitely much better for getting even more amounts 

and that is a big deal, your worried for excellent reason

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Jesus I alway lose this link...

Anyone have the link to the site for the std deviations for specific variables for ncep models? Like u-wind, pwat, etc?

http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/ensembles/

That's what I use.

2 hours ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

Can someone explain why Upton's grid forecast is different from their map forecast is different from their WSW? For my backyard their forecast looks like this:

grid: 11-15"

map: 12-18"

wsw: 8-12"

 

Which one is it? Pretty big discrepancies there. Kind of makes it difficult for the public to trust them.

Grid is actual point forecast, but the ranges in each period are hard coded and not editable. Map is the grid point value dumped into set ranges (i.e. 11.5" is 12-18" but 11.4" is 8-12"). And the WSW is the average across whatever zone grouping the office decided on. So they are all accurate for a total around a foot.

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3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

and that is a big deal, your worried for excellent reason

Just one of several issues I'm worried about.  Haven't really seen anything trend in a positive direction with these issues.  

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Tatunton you are the Biggest Buzz Kill on the Planet right now.  9-10 for PVD-Boston!?!?!?  But 18 Ray?  What you smoking.  

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Select cities

BOS 10"

ORH 20"

TOL 19"

PVD 9"

TAN 6"

GINX 11"

RAY 18"

EWB 3"

Jimmy 1"

 

 

 

 

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Re: Para vs. Op NAM... let's see if the understudy is worthy of taking over... this will be a good test, I'm guarded without a track record.

Here's the latest 01z HRRR... she's cold. Mix line does not make it past south shore by 3pm, let's see how this trend:

01z_hrrr_ref_neng_19.thumb.png.f7afaaa0e86e70f3e960bf2438e697d1.png

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Ginx was talking about it earlier, but the HRRRX is ripping off some 4"/hr rates late afternoon tomorrow. Looks like it wants to really go to town in the GYX CWA as it starts to transition from pure WAA to deformation.

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2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Re: Para vs. Op NAM... let's see if the understudy is worthy of taking over... this will be a good test, I'm guarded without a track record.

Here's the latest 01z HRRR... she's cold. Mix line does not make it past south shore by 3pm, let's see how this trend:

 

imageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dff

01z_hrrr_ref_neng_19.png

01z_hrrr_ref_neng_19.png

Toggle hour 17 of it compared to hour 18 of the 0z run - it's definitely a hair warmer. It's been going back and forth the last few hours so we'll see if it continues, but right now it's definitely on the cold side of guidance. Let's hope it stays that way.

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nammy drops a 1.25" spot in 6hrs here. I'll miss that model.

1.5'' here. God rest its soul.

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4 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

RGEM through 12 is a hair west of the 18z run. Not good.

At this juncture, it's probably more useful to track the precip shield and changeover lines, rather than SLP location. We know it's going to tuck pretty far West going forward 

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2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

At this juncture, it's probably more useful to track the precip shield and changeover lines, rather than SLP location. We know it's going to tuck pretty far West going forward 

That's what I'm looking at.

Verbatim, it changes BOS over around 1 PM - maybe an hour of crazy snows at best before the flip. 

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