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powderfreak

March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So let's evaluate that.

Rgem East

Euro/ ENS- slightly east

GFS correcting west because was too east 

Para Nam- same or nudge east

So......

 

 

 

The RGEM was maybe a couple miles east?  Mostly, it stayed the same.  Also true of the Euro.

I can't see the NAM-para 12K, but the NAM 12/4/3K all went significantly west (the 3K least so).

The GFS was way west.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The old NAM did at 12z and the 18z Gfs did 

It's all freaking noise practically. Maybe 18z stuff settled back a tad.  

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It was 10-15 miles east of 00z and Will said EPS was about dead nuts on with it.

If I could just get another 15 miles on top of that its game on. Just GFS looks horrible.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's all freaking noise practically. Maybe 18z stuff settled back a tad.  

Yeah it's basically just models settling in on a final solution. We won't see anymore major trickles. But there's this false idea on here that there's been some massive west trend across the board and it's not stopping. There's no west trend. It's a few models correcting their known biases. And you have people thinking a Rainer in BOS lol

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I still can't think of any recent storm that looked to bring so much heavy snow over such a large geographic area.  

Be interesting to compare other storms with such a large area of 12"+.

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So let's evaluate that.

Rgem East

Euro/ ENS- slightly east

GFS correcting west because was too east 

Para Nam- same or nudge east

So......

 

 

 

It's really easy to tell when you haven't looked at the models.

Para NAM did not nudge east. It moved considerably west.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah it's basically just models settling in on a final solution. We won't see anymore major trickles. But there's this false idea on here that there's been some massive west trend across the board and it's not stopping. There's no west trend. It's a few models correcting their known biases. And you have people thinking a Rainer in BOS lol

For some people that tick west makes a big difference, I'd be down too if I was forecast for 18+ and now it was 3-6.

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

It's really easy to tell when you haven't looked at the models.

Para NAM did not nudge east. It moved considerably west.

I don't agree. It basically stayed the same. Your idea of a massive west trend and worries of rain are unfounded 

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Just now, DavisStraight said:

For some people that tick west makes a big difference, I'd be down too if I was forecast for 18+ and know it was 3-6.

We all would be. But other than the old NAM nothing shows that. If they are basing it on that then ok 

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I still can't think of any recent storm that looked to bring so much heavy snow over such a large geographic area.  

Be interesting to compare other storms with such a large area of 12"+.

Looks like I am going to be ok on this one. The camera will be ready.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Boy a track from GHG to even S of KPYM could mean the difference of like 5" at BOS. So close.

Yeah was just looking at 12z Euro: that window 18z-21z will be pretty intense (2pm-5pm), if we can keep it all snow (and per Euro looks like mix begins ~20-21z), 10-16" should verify

Verbatim, our most intense rates will be early-mid afternoon a little before changeover

Looks like 18z PARA-NAM mixes ~ an hour earlier, 18z old-NAM ~ a little before that... 

literally 10 mile shift east could translate into 2-4 more inches 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Re: 18z GFS from a met friend 

basically less phasing so coastal is not jerked as far west, and more ability for 850 low over coastal to stay closed off and deepen

Huh? 18z GFS was way west. Might be the western outlier now if you throw out the 12km NAM.

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Just now, Cold Miser said:

I thought GFS was considerably West too? 

Kevin is on his own island fighting the good fight.

I'm not on my own island. I've posted what was west and what was east . The point is the E Mass folks are ok near and north of BOS

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2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

I thought GFS was considerably West too? 

Kevin is on his own island fighting the good fight.

He's embarrassing himself even more than usual.

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I must be missing something. Doesn't seem like anyone west of 495 is going to taint for more than an hour or two and even that's questionable. BOS still looks good for close to a foot. We knew CC was going to get screwed. Has something catastrophic happened in the last hour or so that NWS, WeatherUnderground, Accuwx, the broadcast channels, etc, etc. haven't seen?

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Enjoy the storm. Looking at at 8-10" here.  Not what I care for mid march.  Would have preferred a blockbuster like modeled a day or 2 ago.

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