March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[snowman21]

23 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

I don't get the exclusion of coastal zones from the blizzard warning - it's not about how much snow you get, it's about winds and visibility which arguably will be lower on the coastline due to paste and stronger winds in general. Arguably it has a better chance of verifying at BOS and PYM than at CEF and BDL even if the totals end up lower there. Not that it matters in the end, but it's weird to me and confusing to the public as they think a WSW means a less intense storm than a blizzard and prepare accordingly even though that's not the case.

It's tougher to get that vis <1/4 mile if it's paste - doesn't blow as much as the powdery kind.

[sankaty]

For here, assuming 10:1

8" on NAM
15" NAM 4K
17" NAM 3K

18"+ on Euro and GFS 12Z

The suspense is killing me.
 

[powderfreak]

We should start a new thread for nowcast...

 

[powderfreak]

Love this line in the BTV AFD...sense of humor.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 309 PM EDT Monday...Unless you have plans this weekend, you
most likely stopped at the end of the short term and you`re
probably not reading this far down. 

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM looks a bit tamer through 12 hours.

[sankaty]

Hard to tell if the RGEM is less amped or just a tic slower through 12.  Doesn't look more amped, though, so that's something.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM looks a bit tamer through 12 hours.

This is awesome

ORH really riding the line?

[powderfreak]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM looks a bit tamer through 12 hours.

Looks slower too.

[wxsniss]

18z RGEM at 30hrs 24 hrs maybe a tick weaker and a few miles further northeast compared to 12z RGEM... thermally looks about same for eastern SNE by 30 hrs

[sankaty]

Through 24 on the p-type algorithm site, the RGEM does appear to be slightly weaker/colder.  Doesn't look much different, but at least it doesn't continue the amped trend.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Edit: Not weaker, just slower.  Hard to read those maps.

[powderfreak]

Looks like 10-20 miles east down in the Mid-Atlantic.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Looks slower too.

Yeah it was.

[DomNH]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is awesome

ORH really riding the line?

Probably riding the line between 18 and 19''

 

Hopefully the RGEM rescues people from the edge of the Tobin.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

What a toaster the NAM is here.... knee jerk school cancellations FTL

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it was.

6-8 hrs in CT of 2 plus per hour before the shoreline taints, its coming

[powderfreak]

Looks like its going to be slightly east, in the noise level of things, but big impacts for the SE/E New England folks.

[correnjim1]

2-4....Then rain washes it away in the afternoon 

[klw]

That'll do pig, that'll do:

[powderfreak]

Ha actually now I'm not sure...maybe its just slower.

[BRSno]

Not fun looking at all, looks like the low ends up even slightly further west?

[FSUIZZY]

Just now, DomNH said:

Probably riding the line between 18 and 19''

 

Hopefully the RGEM rescues people from the edge of the Tobin.

I can only imagine the people watching their local weather channel....16-20 inches....no 9-12 inches...no 8-10 inches...no we may just get rain and some sleet. Don't forget the Blizzard no Blizzard, perhaps a Blizzard?

[SouthCoastMA]

Still tracks from Narragansett Bay to Duxbury. Meh

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Ha actually now I'm not sure...maybe its just slower.

It did look a tick east in the end on the final track...again, as you said, it was mostly noise when we're talking like 10 miles, but if it's real, then it helps out a few folks in SE MA hold on longer.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha actually now I'm not sure...maybe its just slower.

Looks like it takes basically the same track maybe a hair SE, Looks like its has probably more qpf up this way on those ancient maps.

 

[powderfreak]

The ALB area gets a Christmas 2002 type band... right up the Hudson Valley basically the thing just pukes snow.

[Ginx snewx]

Hey kids, save a horse

[FSUIZZY]

Well this went from one of the most hyped storms in the East, SE to is it even going to snow enough to stay. They (TV meteorologists) are walking this storm back faster than one of Trump's tweets in this region.

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It did look a tick east in the end on the final track...again, as you said, it was mostly noise when we're talking like 10 miles, but if it's real, then it helps out a few folks in SE MA hold on longer.

It was a bit colder solution with the 0° 850 line about 10-15 miles further S or SE from 12z.  If we can get a couple more tics like this, some areas could limit the taint to a few hours.

[Damage In Tolland]

Easy E Mass weenies. You're good

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, FSUIZZY said:

Well this went from one of the most hyped storms in the East, SE to is it even going to snow enough to stay. They (TV meteorologists) are walking this storm back faster than one of Trump's tweets in this region.

? Odd Mets you have