March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[CoastalWx]

I feel like interior NE MA may do really well. That finally screams CF enhancement there to maybe 495 before the cold comes back east. 

[BRSno]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Easy E Mass weenies. You're good

According to a hunch? Do you have an early call for some eastern cities?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I feel like interior NE MA may do really well. That finally screams CF enhancement there to maybe 495 before the cold comes back east. 

The superior model with a superior grasp on the hemispheric setup and the highest scoring model with qpf totally agrees with you. 

[powderfreak]

Congrats Hudson Valley... wow.  Been a long time for that area.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, BRSno said:

According to a hunch? Do you have an early call for some eastern cities?

According to the best model out there . 

[powderfreak]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

The superior model with a superior grasp on the hemispheric setup and the highest scoring model with qpf totally agrees with you. 

Yeah and the EURO is even better up here than the NAM/RGEM.  Just a beast of a storm.

[BRSno]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

According to the best model out there . 

That eastern trend just won't let up.... according to him. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

My rational mind is not comprehending these qpf totals for a 12 hour storm.  So happy this is mainly daylight hours, epic weenie day incoming.  

[JC-CT]

GFS initialized with a stronger shortwave. By hour 3, heights are higher in the east.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, BRSno said:

According to a hunch? Do you have an early call for some eastern cities?

BOS proper will get 12-18. If you are south of city I'd go 8-12. North 18-24

[powderfreak]

The one odd thing with the RGEM is its putting the highest totals in the valleys, lol.  CT River Valley jack...Hudson River Valley jack...Champlain Valley even.

I feel like it should be more Berkshires and Catskills than in the valleys.

[powderfreak]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

BOS proper will get 12-18. If you are south of city I'd go 8-12. North 18-24

I agree with you.

 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The one odd thing with the RGEM is its putting the highest totals in the valleys, lol.  CT River Valley jack...Hudson River Valley jack...Champlain Valley even.

I feel like it should be more Berkshires and Catskills than in the valleys.

It has struggled

[SnowHole413]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

The one odd thing with the RGEM is its putting the highest totals in the valleys, lol.  CT River Valley jack...Hudson River Valley jack...Champlain Valley even.

I feel like it should be more Berkshires and Catskills than in the valleys.

yeah i feel like it should be like that too lol. Im a valley guy so im riding the RGEM till I die

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

The one odd thing with the RGEM is its putting the highest totals in the valleys, lol.  CT River Valley jack...Hudson River Valley jack...Champlain Valley even.

I feel like it should be more Berkshires and Catskills than in the valleys.

Yeah, was just noticing that.  I think the hilltowns around those aforementioned valleys will be the big winners. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BOS proper will get 12-18. If you are south of city I'd go 8-12. North 18-24

good call in my mind

[MarkO]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like interior NE MA may do really well. That finally screams CF enhancement there to maybe 495 before the cold comes back east. 

We need a "like" button!

[JC-CT]

GFS will be west of 12z

[backedgeapproaching]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The one odd thing with the RGEM is its putting the highest totals in the valleys, lol.  CT River Valley jack...Hudson River Valley jack...Champlain Valley even.

I feel like it should be more Berkshires and Catskills than in the valleys.

I've noticed it do that before, I guess the algorithms are off a little on where it thinks the elevation is.  It has been jackpotting Bennington VT for 3 winters now, ummm no.

[dryslot]

GFS late to the party as usual

[ineedsnow]

Rgem jackpots here lol

[Ginx snewx]

I am totally on board with OKX and BOX most likely maps

[FSUIZZY]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BOS proper will get 12-18. If you are south of city I'd go 8-12. North 18-24

I think Lowest was around 9 inches and highest was around 20 inches. So I say that is a fair assessment. 

[Whineminster]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The superior model with a superior grasp on the hemispheric setup and the highest scoring model with qpf totally agrees with you. 

NOGAPS?

[JC-CT]

Just now, Whineminster said:

NOGAPS?

4dvar!

[dryslot]

ETA, NGM

[FSUIZZY]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

GFS will be west of 12z

This is your guess based off the NAM and RGEM models? Or do see something in the model itself?

[Professional Lurker]

Found out im having a baby boy this morning now models are coming in even better.... What an awesome day!!!!!

Congrats!!!

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, FSUIZZY said:

This is your guess based off the NAM and RGEM models? Or do see something in the model itself?

Well at this point I've already seen the run, but no it's not a guess at all. You could tell from the h5 trough orientation at initialization that it would be west.

It is probably 30-35 miles west of 12z.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, FSUIZZY said:

This is your guess based off the NAM and RGEM models? Or do see something in the model itself?

18z GFS is west of 12z, Its out hr33