BristowWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z Panasonic Control Mean through 120 hrs look at that big piece of bubble gum squashed on us...Bazooka Joe would appreciate that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ralph Wiggum wants you to know, this is a big interior hit. His mom says he's special. Even though we're not in storm mode or threaded for the storm, let's go for banterless model runs so good disco is clumped together and not spread across pages of useless posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes, if it's southern stream then there will be some. I figured as much. Thanks. Just trying to figure out how we can all cash in on some higher double digit fresh pow pow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Ralph Wiggum wants you to know, this is a big interior hit. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 HM is thinking December 5-7 2003 is a good analog for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The "other" HM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: HM is thinking December 5-7 2003 is a good analog for this storm. wondering what the other HM thinks. He is the one I trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: HM is thinking December 5-7 2003 is a good analog for this storm. Maybe he'll wear his big daddy hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: With ops solidly keeping us inside the solid event with wiggle room goalposts and ensembles improving every run, I'm not going to worry about a single thing. Yes, we know where some problems could appear but until they do why bother. It could be snowing in our yards in as little as 84 hours. We're getting pretty close to the point where drastic shifts become very unlikely. And having some room in all directions at this point feels pretty damn good. Agree, though hard to not worry about things going wrong to be sure! That said, the good thing about this event is (as you mention) we have some room either way to get a solid event out of this almost regardless. There are several different paths to get good snow, we're not grasping at one or two outlier ensemble members. In fact from what I've looked at and read in here, there's actually some upside potential here. We should not (or hope not!) get major shifts by this point, so overall yeah, have to feel good where things stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6z JMA is a bomb in the making. Ideal placement of the NS low and plenty of energy to the S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: wondering what the other HM thinks. He is the one I trust. No kidding. Margusity used to be pretty good and also get real pumped for big storms. He's a joke now. Love Bernie Rayno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: wondering what the other HM thinks. He is the one I trust. Yeah, just thought I'd throw this out there before the GFS and see what people thought, I wasn't in DC at the time and I don't really remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Heh, 6z ICON model is a textbook classic setup for a monster hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: Kind of a weird precip hole over the region from the Euro. Dry slot at some point? It seemed like initially there was enough interaction between the primary low and the coastal to pull precip back and back it up against the mountains up into western VA. Then at some point the coastal low escapes the "capture" and slides off ENE instead of NNE and at that point the low reconsolidates and some heavy banding sets up over coastal NJ and robs moisture transport into the dying precip inland. That "reorganization" phase happens right over us. The good news is scanning the euro ensembles there are very few members that have that evolution. Hopefully we do not see it heading that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 6z JMA is a bomb in the making. Ideal placement of the NS low and plenty of energy to the S and E. Ji will be on board now that the JMA is good to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I can't find a single model that doesn't look excellent. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Psuhoff, clean out your PM inbox dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Heh, 6z ICON model is a textbook classic setup for a monster hit. Is that the Deutschland model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: wondering what the other HM thinks. He is the one I trust. He is always chasing the triple phaser unicorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: Maybe he'll wear his big daddy hat. He is so awful (Margusity, not our HM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I know the models are showing this in some instances, but I have real trouble believing a 10 inch snow storm is actually possible in March. Call it sun angle, latitude, hunch, warm pavement, whatever, but my mind is looking at these outputs and just saying "no way". Will be really interesting to see how this evolves over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Is that the Deutschland model? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Don Cherry's Jacket said: I know the models are showing this in some instances, but I have real trouble believing a 10 inch snow storm is actually possible in March. Call it sun angle, latitude, hunch, warm pavement, whatever, but my mind is looking at these outputs and just saying "no way". Will be really interesting to see how this evolves over the weekend. Is this a joke? It's happened before and its happened somewhat recently. It's certainly possible if its cold enough, and warm pavement shouldn't be much of an issue considering our lows will be in the teens over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Don Cherry's Jacket said: I know the models are showing this in some instances, but I have real trouble believing a 10 inch snow storm is actually possible in March. Call it sun angle, latitude, hunch, warm pavement, whatever, but my mind is looking at these outputs and just saying "no way". Will be really interesting to see how this evolves over the weekend. First off we will be in a cold airmass. Secondly, it is a mostly overnight storm. We have had 3 storms with 10+ inches in the last 4 years in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Pavement temps are already in the 30s/ 40s lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I don't really understand the mindset that a big snowstorm can't happen in March. Why not? Just because very few have happened in the past? That's just because it's difficult to get the cold air in place and also have a dynamic system. In this case, we have the cold air in place, which is difficult in March. On top of that, you have a lot of warm air running around in March, so if you can get that running into cold air, you can really go big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I can't find a single model that doesn't look excellent. lol Yeah. It is kind of weird 4 days out not to have something negative. It does seem like the big ones get modeled correctly a long ways out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 One thing that I always said I'd pay attention to is for the last few days, the models that seem to give us the best looks start with a pretty decent south digging snow line today. It looks like that is indeed happening, with snow making its way as far south as Manassas. Hopefully this is a good prelude and good omen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: First off we will be in a cold airmass. Secondly, it is a mostly overnight storm. We have had 3 storms with 10+ inches in the last 4 years in March I mean, with the infamous Snowquester, DC got shut out but we here in Cville got 8+. It's totally possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I don't really understand the mindset that a big snowstorm can't happen in March. Why not? Just because very few have happened in the past? That's just because it's difficult to get the cold air in place and also have a dynamic system. In this case, we have the cold air in place, which is difficult in March. On top of that, you have a lot of warm air running around in March, so if you can get that running into cold air, you can really go big. Well, the last part about the warm air elsewhere being able to amp the storm I do agree with. But, its also why its hard to fully believe in a big storm. Minor track differences creating hefty differences in the snow/rain line, for example. Like I said, let's see how the models progress over the weekend. Realistically, down seems like the only real direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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