stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It's close but look like dc mostly survives. 7" by 1pm and still coming down. pm or am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Sigh. This isn't rocket science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 it looks like it keeps the low over the the coast and not inland like the GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Still snowing at 120... 9-10" on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Eastern Shore gets in on the changeover as the coastal pulls off ENE from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 pm or am? Around .8qpf by 1pm tues. Make that 2pm since it's dst. There might be a warm nose above 850 at some point. Hard to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looks like Kuchera 7", standard WxBell 10:1 is 10" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Blue ridge/winchester jack with 12"+ and no temp worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Is it drier than it should be for a storm so strong or is it because fast moving?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Is it drier than it should be for a storm so strong or is it because fast moving? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I don't know if there's any phasing this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 850mb was warmer across the entire NE part of the country at 96, and the NS was further west... Somehow the further west NS didn't capture the low...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Ignore the other globals. It's amazing that a server farm in Reading, England understand our climo better than American entities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Is it drier than it should be for a storm so strong or is it because fast moving? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk No clean phase with the ns so it's muddy with lift in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I don't know if there's any phasing this run? thts what I was seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Odd run, but can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Is it drier than it should be for a storm so strong or is it because fast moving? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk No your right it was a weird run and it did some weird things with the precip. Should have been wetter given the development. Plus it allows the low to escape east vs being pulled north like the gfs and U.K. Not sure I buy that given the trough alignment. It splits into two h5 lows almost to do that. There are some suspect details but the important thing is no major hiccups from any of the 0z guidance. The train is still on cruise control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 From the free maps on TT, the track and timing look very similar to the CMC, but the low on the Euro is deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Ignore the other globals. It's amazing that a server farm in Reading, England understand our climo better than American entities. From what I'm reading the totals are not that far off from the GFS and CMC. Not sure how much snow the UKMET put down. I've seen the Euro come in too dry at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxhoov Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Hows the qpf in northern baltimore around mason dixon line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 suites in a row with all globals on board. Spread is narrowing. Nothing to really worry about yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It sounds like there are basically two camps among the top four globals: Euro / CMC with the eastern track, and the GFS / Ukie where the low gets captured earlier and pulled west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Hows the qpf in northern baltimore around mason dixon line? Around .7-.8 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxhoov Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Around .7-.8 or so. Alright thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 NAVGEM is almost identical to the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 As some on these boards may know I am not a big proponent of censorship and of Mods wack-a-moleing posts left and right. I always believed that part of the enjoyment was what when on between the analysis from some of the more knowledgeable posters. But this only works if there is a little self control from all the posters. Without that we have a board that for the most part becomes near unreadable for those of us that step away for a few hours. After spending close to 45 minutes weeding through 12 pages just to get a page or two of worthwhile information I think maybe we all need to start filtering our posts somewhat as to usefulness to the conversation. Not saying shut down all banter, maps, etc... Just tone it down a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 As some on these boards may know I am not a big proponent of censorship and of Mods wack-a-moleing posts left and right. I always believed that part of the enjoyment was what when on between the analysis from some of the more knowledgeable posters. But this only works if there is a little self control from all the posters. Without that we have a board that for the most part becomes near unreadable for those of us that step away for a few hours. After spending close to 45 minutes weeding through 12 pages just to get a page or two of worthwhile information I think maybe we all need to start filtering our posts somewhat as to usefulness to the conversation. Not saying shut down all banter, maps, etc... Just tone it down a little. Fret not..once we get to the storm thread, it'll be tight and clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6z GFS isn't as wet and warmer...but i think it's warmer because of lack of heavy precip. Vs 0z, it's meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Oh NO! It MAY be coming for me! The latest from LWX: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Winter weather continues to look more probable early next week as coastal low rapidly strengthens while moving N/NE along the eastern seaboard. While still too early for specifics...nearly all long- term guidance now suggests possibility for at least some accumulating snowfall over much of the area (which is notable if only for the fact that we have seen a dearth of snow this winter east of the Allegheny Front). Ultimately...impacts will largely be dependent on spatiotemporal evolution of coastal low and if/where phasing of the upper stream occurs. This should continue to become clearer over the next several guidance cycles as intra-/inter-model consistency hopefully becomes established. Current timing would favor greater potential for accumulation...as primary accumulation period occurs Late Monday through early Tuesday morning (i.e., a period devoid of much filtered March sun). Furthermore, moisture-laden airmass juxtaposed with anamolous easterly flow in low-/mid-levels suggests winter storm warning criteria is certainly possible across portions of the area. However...depending on track of low...transition zone could set up...which would limit snowfall accumulations where mixed precipitation occurs. Finally...keep in mind that ensembles of both the ECMWF and GFS still exhibit tremendous spread in QPF...and thus snowfall totals. Thus...it is unwise to put too much weight on any one solution as uncertainty remains large. Main takeaway is that this system has the potential to produce significant impacts across the area...but confidence in any one solution remains large. Wraparound precipitation will remain possible through Tuesday as surface low moves away from the area. High pressure will then gradually build into the area through Thursday. Sensible weather from midweek on will be largely dependent on early week system and quantity of any snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It's still decent, don't get me wrong, but QPF looks down a bit from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6z GFS isn't as wet and warmer...but i think it's warmer because of lack of heavy precip. Vs 0z, it's mehSloppy phase....sort of Euro-ish in that regard. Yet still manages a decent track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.