showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Fret not..once we get to the storm thread, it'll be tight and clean. Yeah, I had no worries about that. I know you all do a great job. It's just that part of the enjoyment to me is the chase before we reach that point which includes the banter and maps and so on. But when you have some posters that have 10+ posts all/most basically of "Wow', ' :) ' ,'I get 8 inches', etc... it just gets annoying. I never put others on ignore but have come close to it after the noon runs and the overnight run. Anyway I'm done ranting. Carry on. ps. The 500's on the overnight run of the EPS IMO went on the 'Go big or go home' bandwagon. But that may not be such a good thing for those that are perilously close to the line of despair between snow/no snow. Just starting to look in more detail so maybe my take is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yeah, I had no worries about that. I know you all do a great job. It's just that part of the enjoyment to me is the chase before we reach that point which includes the banter and maps and so on. But when you have some posters that have 10+ posts all/most basically of "Wow', ' ' ,'I get 8 inches', etc... it just gets annoying. I never put others on ignore but have come close to it after the noon runs and the overnight run. Anyway I'm done ranting. Carry on. ps. The 500's on the overnight run of the EPS IMO went on the 'Go big or go home' bandwagon. But that may not be such a good thing for those that are perilously close to the line of despair between snow/no snow. Just starting to look in more detail so maybe my take is off. Yeah, its close here..but even in the most perilous of runs, we still manage to remain snow or mostly snow. latest GFS was just a messy phase job. One thing I'm noticing on the GFS is how slower the NS s/w seems to be getting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yeah, I had no worries about that. I know you all do a great job. It's just that part of the enjoyment to me is the chase before we reach that point which includes the banter and maps and so on. But when you have some posters that have 10+ posts all/most basically of "Wow', ' ' ,'I get 8 inches', etc... it just gets annoying. I never put others on ignore but have come close to it after the noon runs and the overnight run. Anyway I'm done ranting. Carry on. ps. The 500's on the overnight run of the EPS IMO went on the 'Go big or go home' bandwagon. But that may not be such a good thing for those that are perilously close to the line of despair between snow/no snow. Just starting to look in more detail so maybe my take is off. I count only 18/51 EPS members that have a truly bad result. (Less then 6"across our general area) By comparison 29/51 on the 12z had a bad result. Most of those still snow some just not enough for what we're expecting here. Oh those 8 seem to be over amped and west and 10 seem to develop too late and or go east. That's actually a good mix between opposite ways to get screwed and indicates where right in the middle which is good. There are some monsters in there. Most of the east camp we still get a few inches from the upper low. The mean went from about 5.5 to now 8.6" in DC. That's just for the Tuesday system subtracting the .5 from today lol. Mean increases to about 10.5" in our northwest areas. The EPS also has a notable jump in snow around the day 8-12 period so it likes that threat also but I'm not getting into that yet. Total mean for the run is 10" in DC and 15" along the northern tier. Weeniest run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looking at the EPS 500's and there has been what I consider some significant changes. Where as the 12Z run basically rotated the northern part of the trough down into the southern portion giving us one distinct trough and a possible phasing of streams as it swings through we are now seeing a disconnect. The overnight run now delays the northern portion of the trough somewhat and develops a distinct negative tilted shortwave riding up from the southern portion of the mean trough. In my mind this is a much cleaner solution with a southern stream dominant low then seen with the questionable phasing solutions being spit out on earlier runs. We are also seeing higher heights to the east of our mean trough as the southern short wave rides up. After the shortwave passes we then see a closed 500mb low develop and run through just north of our region. So the solution that the 12z had of a low riding up the coast, that was inhibited some from intensifying as it sorted out how it wanted to phase, a phase that was perilously close too being to late for our region. The 00z on the other hand now supports a much cleaner solution of a southern stream dominant low, that with a distinct shortwave and the slightly higher heights, now has more room to rapidly intensify as it moves up into our region then on previous runs. This solution has some very good upside to it though with the more westerly track we would most likely see we would also be moving that rain/snow line even further west. Then we have the question of the closed low now being shown that follows up this storm. Depending on the track of that and whether there is enough separation from the departing low to allow the mid-levels to recover somewhat, could be the difference between some snow showers vs maybe some light accumulations of an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I count only 18/51 EPS members that have a truly bad result. (Less then 6"across our general area) By comparison 29/51 on the 12z had a bad result. Most of those still snow some just not enough for what we're expecting here. Oh those 8 seem to be over amped and west and 10 seem to develop too late and or go east. That's actually a good mix between opposite ways to get screwed and indicates where right in the middle which is good. There are some monsters in there. Most of the east camp we still get a few inches from the upper low. The mean went from about 5.5 to now 8.6" in DC. That's just for the Tuesday system subtracting the .5 from today lol. Mean increases to about 10.5" in our northwest areas. The EPS also has a notable jump in snow around the day 8-12 period so it likes that threat also but I'm not getting into that yet. Total mean for the run is 10" in DC and 15" along the northern tier. Weeniest run yet. Just glanced at them. Sweet!!! A casual glance at them suggests we are probably moving away from a possible phase, as I mentioned earlier and probably very clumsily at that, to now a southern dominant low as well. Though with out 500's it is just conjecture on my part. I would prefer this solution because it can have great results without all the headaches. Though I do admit a triple phaser did sound appealing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It's still decent, don't get me wrong, but QPF looks down a bit from 0z Yeah just a little drier to me... the track actually looked a tad better to my eyes but temps are close as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Tuesday still happening? Just skipped 230 posts lolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Seems fairly classic to me...heavier precip east...rain snow line inland just a bit...despite lower qpf west...higher snow accumulations there. Makes sense if you have lived here for any length of time and haven't been vaping in your car with the windows up for months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6z had big totals just over MD-PA line, so it's not that bad. Small shift in future runs puts everyone, especially the Baltimore area, in the running for better totals. It's interesting how the evolution of the storms on the models continues to change with details, but the general end-game is pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 06Z GEFS has a very similar solution to the overnight EPS. Delays the northern part of the trough/energy and develops a distinct wave on the southern portion of it riding up the trough. Would suggest a southern dominant low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Tuesday still happening? Just skipped 230 posts lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes. I think so . gfs is really close to snow ... sleet.. drizzle and dryslot... but it is still a big hit. euro has a great track... little further east of the gfs.. with lots of ensemble support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 In regards to the EPS, has to be the weeniest run in a while in terms of a single threat. Depending on location, mean is between 6"-10" across the area for JUST THE TUESDAY STORM, increasing from 6" to 10" as you go north. Looking at the members, about 35 members get at least 6" into the district. Some whiffs, and a few monsters hits in there (18"+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Tuesday still happening? Just skipped 230 posts lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk If I were you I would root for the gfs.. where you are.. you would probably get a foot of heavy wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 In regards to the EPS, has to be the weeniest run in a while in terms of a single threat. Depending on location, mean is between 6"-10" across the area for JUST THE TUESDAY STORM, increasing from 6" to 10" as you go north. Looking at the members, about 35 members get at least 6" into the district. Some whiffs, and a few monsters hits in there (18"+). What's the mean when you add in next Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 What's the mean when you add in next Friday? Maybe add .5-1". Not much of a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The snowfall mean increased again on the 06z GEFS for the storm Tuesday. Now 10" at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yes. I think so . gfs is really close to snow ... sleet.. drizzle and dryslot... but it is still a big hit. euro has a great track... little further east of the gfs.. with lots of ensemble support don't like 6z much compared to 0z. The NS vort is much north of the 0z position. and you can see how it sort of messes things up a bit. Yes still snow and thermals hold but not a favored look when compared to 0z. And I am not buying the off hour run crap either. that's just poppycock. the better solutions seem to favor a digging NS. I did not see it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 06Z GEFS has a very similar solution to the overnight EPS. Delays the northern part of the trough/energy and develops a distinct wave on the southern portion of it riding up the trough. Would suggest a southern dominant low. I, like you, approve of this. I think I'd rather take my chances on an overamped southern stream low vs. a skipover with some kind of partial phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Good morning all. So it seems we are rooting for clean juiced system riding up the coast vs. the transfer/phase scenario? Less worrying for everyone? Seems were now trending that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The snowfall mean increased again on the 06z GEFS for the storm Tuesday. Now 10" at DCA. Do we start favoring OP over ensembles tomorrow night? 72ish hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Do we start favoring OP over ensembles tomorrow night? 72ish hours I took it as a good sign that the ensemble mean improved even as the op run didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I took it as a good sign that the ensemble mean improved even as the op run didn't. Without a doubt. And that it trended more towards a Euro type solution of a cleaner southern dominated system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Maybe add .5-1". Not much of a change. Depends where you are. Nw of 95 the mean spikes about 2" during that time. EPS hints the day 8-10 might be a nw thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I, like you, approve of this. I think I'd rather take my chances on an overamped southern stream low vs. a skipover with some kind of partial phase. Honestly my biggest concern if it were to play out this way is where the rain/snow line would set up. At this point many of the ensemble members on the EPS (haven't looked at the 06z GEFS) are moving towards a southern stream dominant low solution but there are still many that are not which I think may be skewing that line too far to the east. When/if the other members start jumping onto this solution I fear we will see that line shift westward as they start picking up on a more westerly track induced by the higher heights and a stronger low. Right now there is a decent buffer from that line and the cities but I think that margin will begin to shrink. Hopefully it is only a minimal shift if it does occur. Of course this is all based on the models being correct at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Do we start favoring OP over ensembles tomorrow night? 72ish hours I was wondering that too. Tomorrow 12z maybe. Today 12z goes without saying will be huge. will be watching the NS vort closely. I am excited about this but don't want to get ahead of myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Honestly my biggest concern if it were to play out this way is where the rain/snow line would set up. At this point many of the ensemble members on the EPS (haven't looked at the 06z GEFS) are moving towards a southern stream dominant low solution but there are still many that are not which I think may be skewing that line too far to the east. When/if the other members start jumping onto this solution I fear we will see that line shift westward as they start picking up on a more westerly track induced by the higher heights and a stronger low. Right now there is a decent buffer from that line and the cities but I think that margin will begin to shrink. Hopefully it is only a minimal shift if it does occur. Of course this is all based on the models being correct at this point. Yeah, honestly, I'm not too worried. If I could manage 5-6 inches and then a changeover with perhaps a flip back I'd consider this a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Model consensus is the best we've seen all winter. Over an inch of moisture for just about everyone and a low that slows down for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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