Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Kinda anemic surface response so far tho..I'm at 129

I'm saying this before I look but good bad or indifferent look at the trend of the h5 and where it's digging. We're focused way way way too much on the surface and pretty colors for something 120+ hours away.   

The long range success of January 2016 and those 2009/10 storms has made us forget how crazy far out 100+ hours is. This is a good setup but way more complicated then a juiced up stj system bowling into a cold high like those systems. The models aren't going to lock in on an intricate phasing solution this far out.

so without knowing yet the outcome look at h5 and if it looks better out to 100 hours with the setup call it a win.  The surface isn't likely to be right.

.....Unless it gives us a hecs then in that case lock it up.  Lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Personally I'd like to see the whole setup about 75 miles west, h5 especially.

Why are you rooting for rain in my yard? I thought we were friends. 

What we want to root for is an identical trough axis that digs deeper then closes off just south or SW of us. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Why are you rooting for rain in my yard? I thought we were friends. 

What we want to root for is an identical trough axis that digs deeper then closes off just south or SW of us. 

 

That's really what I'm saying.  If the depth we see over Arkansas now was over Oklahoma, we could get the depth you are talking about.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I thought so too. Look at the vort panel when the trough goes neutral. All 3 ducks are in a row. 

Bob... could you take screen shot of a panel and put arrows on it to show us.  It is not often we see a triple phase.  I want to see exactly what you are looking at for my own education.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6-10" is not bad for a storm that produced no precip over Georgia or SC. The phase has to happen further west for us to get a widespread 10+ storm..   If we can get the phase to happen along the gulf coast states the outcome will be much better.  Right now the precip fields merge over WV, which leaves us with little margin for error.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...