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March med-long range disco thread 2

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Yup, I got what you were talking about in terms *this* scenario shown by the 12Z models. 

This is completely tongue in cheek, but maybe board mood is a simpler determiner. Nervous/complicated timing/wish it were 6 hours slower = Miller B. Lock it up/models unanimous/celebrate = Miller A. :)

we were all tingly a few days ago about Sunday.....

I think dilusional model watching zombified snow starved weenies is a better descriptor for most.  

 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

ERS thinks the same as yesterday. 

I believe that means no snow?

I have not gotten enough sleep the last few days,  but I think that was your last general overview,  if I am wrong about that , sorry.   

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

I think we're still shading our attitude towards Tuesday with the Sunday fail. Because the last 24 hours has been a steady positive trend with the key feature, the h5 trough digging. And on the whole we have seen a net positive on model output today. EPS and gefs increased snowfall. The gefs was a straight weenie of the year run. If it wasn't for how crappy this year has been or the recent Sunday fail we would be hopping in here right now. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

That is it. 

I guess I am the only one who thinks the trends the last 24 hours have been good. I see the trough digging more each run and in a good spot for us and all I hear is "another fail". 

Either I am badly misreading things, I'm looking at a different set of runs then everyone else (seems that way sometimes), or everyone else is basing their predictions 100% on "this year has sucked" 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
Just now, psuhoffman said:

I guess I am the only one who thinks the trends the last 24 hours have been good. I see the trough digging more eash run and in a good spot for us and all I hear is "another fail". 

Either I am badly misreading things, I'm looking at a different set of runs then everyone else (seems that way sometimes), or everyone else is basing their predictions 100% on "this year has sucked" 

I am with you... i have also been following the location of the ridge in the west... if I remember my winter storm jedi training, we want the ridge out west to be going through Utah

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
Just now, yoda said:

I am with you... i have also been following the location of the ridge in the west... if I remember my winter storm jedi training, we want the ridge out west to be going through Utah

That's about right but every setup has its own nuances. No rule works 100%. 

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess I am the only one who thinks the trends the last 24 hours have been good. I see the trough digging more eash run and in a good spot for us and all I hear is "another fail". 

Either I am badly misreading things, I'm looking at a different set of runs then everyone else (seems that way sometimes), or everyone else is basing their predictions 100% on "this year has sucked" 

I'm with you.  Trends have been good today which certainly doesn't mean we're getting snow here but it certainly is better than seeing the opposite.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess I am the only one who thinks the trends the last 24 hours have been good. I see the trough digging more each run and in a good spot for us and all I hear is "another fail". 

Either I am badly misreading things, I'm looking at a different set of runs then everyone else (seems that way sometimes), or everyone else is basing their predictions 100% on "this year has sucked" 

lwx afd says there's a chance

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess I am the only one who thinks the trends the last 24 hours have been good. I see the trough digging more each run and in a good spot for us and all I hear is "another fail". 

Either I am badly misreading things, I'm looking at a different set of runs then everyone else (seems that way sometimes), or everyone else is basing their predictions 100% on "this year has sucked" 

Seeing a lot of negativity with Miller Bs is nothing new. I remember a lot of FUD in the days leading to Feb 9, 2010.

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cae

cae

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess I am the only one who thinks the trends the last 24 hours have been good. I see the trough digging more each run and in a good spot for us and all I hear is "another fail". 

Either I am badly misreading things, I'm looking at a different set of runs then everyone else (seems that way sometimes), or everyone else is basing their predictions 100% on "this year has sucked" 

I think the trends over the last 24 hours have been good, but I think some of the apprehension about the 12z suite is because the 12z GFS, GGEM, and arguably the UKMET were worse than their previous runs.  That might be balanced out though by having the Euro come on board.

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess I am the only one who thinks the trends the last 24 hours have been good. I see the trough digging more each run and in a good spot for us and all I hear is "another fail". 

Either I am badly misreading things, I'm looking at a different set of runs then everyone else (seems that way sometimes), or everyone else is basing their predictions 100% on "this year has sucked" 

You aren't alone. Today was positive. Hoping to see more steps toward it working out with the runs tonight.

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BaltimoreWxGuy

BaltimoreWxGuy

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

But a lot can change for better or for worse in five days, right?

I will say that it was nice to see that mint green light up on the GFS 

Right....with Sunday, things started to trend to a positive direction 150-168 hrs out....then it crapped the bed starting around 138 hrs, and especially 120. I get its not impossible for this set up to work, but I dont like it. Id love it if I were in Boston.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

Good AFD from Mount Holly on next weeks potential-

  

Things could get even more interesting early next week. Though
operational models are quite variable with the evolution of the
pattern next week, nearly all simulations suggest development of a
coastal storm. The forecast, as usual, will be tricky, as it
involves the phasing of a northern stream vorticity maximum
originating from northern Canada and a "more" southern-stream
vorticity maximum (originating atop the high-amplitude ridge
expected in western North America by this time). System phasing
is incredibly difficult to forecast, especially at this range,
and unsurprisingly, model continuity is quite poor at the
moment. However, there is a signal emerging from the noise. The
southern-stream system will dig southeastward from the northern
plains Sunday night to the Carolinas by Tuesday afternoon.
Meanwhile, the northern-stream system digs into eastern Ontario
by Tuesday morning, forcing the southern-stream system to shift
northeastward. As rapid cyclogenesis occurs off the East Coast,
the cyclone track parallels the coast as phasing occurs.
Whether this phasing actually occurs, how/where the low
develops, and what the track of the low ends up being all are
unanswered questions. Nevertheless, the consistent signal of
coastal low development and the general nature by which this
process occurs appears to be getting clearer. Increased PoPs
Monday night to Wednesday, especially near the coast. The
strength of the upper-level system and associated cyclone and
the general vicinity of its track suggest substantial QPF is
possible, and much of the precipitation would be snow,
especially away from the coast. Details are murky at best this
far out, but there is at least some potential for a major storm
next week.
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