aldie 22 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Speaking in absolutes always works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Speaking in absolutes always works It's only Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It's only Wednesday. See Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: After Tuesday we have a short break then day 9 sweeps down. Some members blow this up. Onlyyyyy 30+ runs left... but that's the fun isn't it. We just need to score something real first. Maybe we can eek out climo? Not holding my breath, but stranger things have happened in my 46.11 years on big blue. Fingers crossed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: After Tuesday we have a short break then day 9 sweeps down. Some members blow this up. Onlyyyyy 30+ runs left... but that's the fun isn't it. We were talking about snow on snow a few days ago. Maybe it's Tuesday/Saturday instead of Sunday/Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 34 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Speaking in absolutes always works Absolutely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We were talking about snow on snow a few days ago. Maybe it's Tuesday/Saturday instead of Sunday/Tuesday. You know Ers got a chuckle out of that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: After Tuesday we have a short break then day 9 sweeps down. Some members blow this up. Onlyyyyy 30+ runs left... but that's the fun isn't it. Enough with the breaks. This winter has been one big break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Sign me up. Going back through the 122 years of data I compiled some of the biggest snows up here were late march and even some in early April way back. Have to believe that will eventually happen again. Out of curiosity, where do you find all that data? ETA: never mind, I think you answered in another thread and I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You know Ers got a chuckle out of that post. It was in fun. Of course maybe our luck flips and we get snow Tuesday/Saturday/and with that day 16 thing. It is a shame this pattern is setting in now. If it was even just 2 weeks earlier our odds of getting out of this without a good snow would be much lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: Out of curiosity, where do you find all that data? Back in the day I requested data from the regional climate offices. Now most of it is online through climod2. I compiled all the random coop data from around my area then wasted way too much time pulling out snowfall records and compiling a record of all the snow events in this area. Coop sites moved around over the years so it's not official and Manchester is a local max even in Carroll county so my numbers might be low for my location but it gives an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Amazing how chaos works. So given the blocking breaking down and a not so great PAC things were probably going warm again after Tuesday. But now that Tuesday blows up and becomes another 50/50 it creates another threat day 9-10. Then that might become the 50/50 that sets up a threat aroumd march 24. But remove the Tuesday storm and the whole period might be mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Back in the day I requested data from the regional climate offices. Now most of it is online through climod2. I compiled all the random coop data from around my area then wasted way too much time pulling out snowfall records and compiling a record of all the snow events in this area. Coop sites moved around over the years so it's not official and Manchester is a local max even in Carroll county so my numbers might be low for my location but it gives an idea. Yeah, I just saw your other reply a few weeks ago. Some of the 30"+ totals in 1958 and 1942 really stood out for me. I'm not even sure how historic storms from mid-winter compare up in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was in fun. Of course maybe our luck flips and we get snow Tuesday/Saturday/and with that day 16 thing. It is a shame this pattern is setting in now. If it was even just 2 weeks earlier our odds of getting out of this without a good snow would be much lower. Frankly, any other winter and I'd be pretty optimistic right now. But this winter has been one bad taste in the mouth after another, so I'm still more skeptical than if this was progged next year. That said, it's really close to being something big so I'll stick around for the show. And there's a part of me that is saying the regime has changed from what was killing us up to a few weeks ago, so forget the past 3 months. Just a shame it's so late. A couple weeks earlier would have been ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Frankly, any other winter and I'd be pretty optimistic right now. But this winter has been one bad taste in the mouth after another, so I'm still more skeptical than if this was progged next year. That said, it's really close to being something big so I'll stick around for the show. And there's a part of me that is saying the regime has changed from what was killing us up to a few weeks ago, so forget the past 3 months. Just a shame it's so late. A couple weeks earlier would have been ideal. GFS or I am going to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: With a little luck..... Friday /Tuesday /Saturday. I have 8.3" this winter. Wouldn't be incredible if we hit climo by April 1st. It's a tall order...I know You can forget about Friday, even for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS is gonna set the mood up in here in a few minutes. Biggest GFS run since the last biggest GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS is gonna set the mood up in here in a few minutes. Biggest GFS run since the last biggest GFS run. You might need two tears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS shows anything less than a foot and I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS is gonna set the mood up in here in a few minutes. Biggest GFS run since the last biggest GFS run. If it goes the wrong way for us, it'll be from being over amplified. But here's hoping for a grand slam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS shows anything less than a foot and I'm out. 6z will pull you back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It'll be nice just to have a wintry weekend with mood flakes at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Sparky said: It'll be nice just to have a wintry weekend with mood flakes at this point. Friday doesnt qualify as a weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Not to mention I dont even expect to see flakes in Essex MD Fri morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Clipper is much better... for NYC. Much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Clipper is much better... for NYC. Much. Looks the same as the Nam, as much as a Clipper can be? Not sure what your thinking maybe I am missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, paweather said: Looks the same as the Nam, as much as a Clipper can be? Not sure what your thinking maybe I am missing something. Compared to the 18z gfs, qpf-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 00z GFS is a little bit farther north and stronger with the Sunday system. Not sure what affect this will have on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, snjókoma said: 00z GFS is a little bit farther north and stronger with the Sunday system. Not sure what affect this will have on Tuesday. Not sure that's something we wanna see....I have to wonder if we're gonna see a weaker vort because of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: 00z GFS is a little bit farther north and stronger with the Sunday system. Not sure what affect this will have on Tuesday. The new LP over NW Mexico at 90hrs may be a good sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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