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March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

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3 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

This is the kama sutra winter... a thousand different ways to get screwed.

That title could stick.  But...  I lived in India 3 years and have the book.  This winter drummed up new ways to get screwed even the book never dreamed of.  Can imagine us referring back to this one decades from now when we're old.  Oh crud, I already am, and aged 10 extra years in this one due to lost of sleep waiting for the models to hold 10 days out...

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Why do you say?

Compare 18z and 0z at 96 and 90.  The 18z got a jump start in the southwest with energy that pulled the trough back and down.  That energy is gone on the 0z run.  Not the first time modeled energy has disappeared on us this year at this range.

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4 minutes ago, Wxhoov said:

Every run has been more amped and inland i dont see how one run being east is such a bad thing?

The Sunday system was in northern Michigan at about 7 days on the gfs.  Weaker has been the trend all winter when we've had any type of cold air in place.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And I still think Sunday comes north. :lol:

Maybe flurries.

If that happens Tuesday's event is done.  Any sort of north component that pushes the trough more off the coast Sunday likely ends that threat for anyone other than New England.  Thankfully I think that won't happen, what may happen though is a stronger shortwave and subsequent deepening as it exits NC which could still marginally hurt Tuesday 

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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The Sunday system was in northern Michigan at about 7 days on the gfs.  Weaker has been the trend all winter when we've had any type of cold air in place.

I agree with what your saying. Theres just more variables to this system. I dont think any model will have this thing pinned down till 48 hrs out but thats just my opinion 

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2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

This weeks roller coaster from hell was certainly predictable. Not loving the queasy feeling personally, but tomorrow is another day. Deep breath, sip some fresh IPA, and get ready for more model madness.  Good night all. Cheers!

i prefer stouts....might as well drink the dark stuff to make me warm and fuzzy cuz the snow wont

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1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

i prefer stouts....might as well drink the dark stuff to make me warm and fuzzy cuz the snow wont

Hahaha. Stouts are my second favorite. ;)  

This outcome for next week is far from set in stone. Swear I said that a few days ago about Sunday....and look how that turned out. :axe:

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Hahaha. Stouts are my second favorite. ;)  

This outcome for next week is far from set in stone. Swear I said that a few days ago about Sunday....and look how that turned out. :axe:

I hear that..Ill be mocked and its fine, as usual. IDC, but put it on paper...this set up, will not work out for us.

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