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CoastalWx

Sunday SWFE..Monday Coastal?

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4 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Yeah, I think this worth mentioning. I don't think we'll see crazy 15:1 or better ratios anywhere but I can see a little better than 10:1 (like 11-12:1) as you go farther N and W from Boston. I said it earlier but the soundings look pretty good and there is decent lift in the DGZ.

Here's the thing and peeps should remember previous storms. This crashes fast, ULL high ratio stuff. Big lift in the conveyor belt , the kind of stuff that can put down some great rates. Perhaps NE mass SNH Maine get smoked besides qpf queen stuff. Looks good in that zone. 

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Going 6-10 in my hood (Brookline) just outside of Boston city line... 4-6 from WAA today, 2-4 from transition / CCB overnight into Monday afternoon.

Relatively conservative but I think we need a dramatically improved nowcast to reverse the east ticks we've seen since yesterday. Between the warm 925Ts (and extrapolating from rain already reported in Boston) and missing the bulk of the CCB, I don't think I can go higher.

And doubt this 4am NWS map verifies (did not see it posted earlier), I'd love to be wrong:

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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46 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Going 6-10 in my hood (Brookline) just outside of Boston city line... 4-6 from WAA today, 2-4 from transition / CCB overnight into Monday afternoon.

Relatively conservative but I think we need a dramatically improved nowcast to reverse the east ticks we've seen since yesterday. Between the warm 925Ts (and extrapolating from rain already reported in Boston) and missing the bulk of the CCB, I don't think I can go higher.

And doubt this 4am NWS map verifies (did not see it posted earlier), I'd love to be wrong:

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

Not sure where they got that map from.  Even 00z models weren't showing this much.

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Seems reasonable to me, Most of their forecast amounts tended towards the bottom of the ranges if you use the point map. The snow ranges are standard so if you read just read the high end then it will seem overdone.

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If the CCB shifts east then those numbers will bust. The Euro still showed 1.1" for here though so that would still not be far off from the 14" they forecasted. I could be wrong but I dont seem them downgrading much.

12Z euro

IMG_0299.PNG

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18z NAM is a clean whiff basically on any CCB for E MA. It's definitely been the most pessimistic model for the past 36 hours on that front.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

18z NAM is a clean whiff basically on any CCB for E MA. It's definitely been the most pessimistic model for the past 36 hours on that front.

That model can be hot and cold. Generally an outlier and most progressive from anything I've seen. Should be clipped at least. 

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18Z Nam bumped qpf back up this run and jacks PWM

We like and we take.

Just now, tunafish said:

Good to hear.  

Appreciate your analysis on this system the past 4 days, btw.

Second. As an outsider, it's been great to hear your analysis dryslot.

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3 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Good to hear.  

Appreciate your analysis on this system the past 4 days, btw.

 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We like and we take.

Second. As an outsider, it's been great to hear your analysis dryslot.

Thank you.

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14 minutes ago, MainePhotog said:

NWS Gray just posted blizzard warnings for mid coast Maine.

Going to be an interesting storm.

They dropped the Blizzard watch for Cumberland, I'm waiting to see what they say in the evening discussion update. I'm a little bummed at that, but we'll see as we get into the winds if we actually get into Blizzard conditions.

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26 minutes ago, amc said:

They dropped the Blizzard watch for Cumberland, I'm waiting to see what they say in the evening discussion update. I'm a little bummed at that, but we'll see as we get into the winds if we actually get into Blizzard conditions.

Was surprised to see that. If PWM can't rock who can? :P 

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