dendrite Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Don't see a problem with a 12-22" range. I remember the NWS forecasting 1-3ft for Mar 93. How's that for a range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 As exciting as this is, it's getting down right scary looking. Even the Ukie has Halifax over 50mm qpf. Could be stranded for days. Off to the liquor store I go for essential supplies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 19 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Buy You are forecasting essentially 1'-2' here? Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Don't see a problem with a 12-22" range. I remember the NWS forecasting 1-3ft for Mar 93. How's that for a range? We forecast exact accumulations for our road clients, its annoying. You forecasted 6 cm, we got 8! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That QPF distribution leads me to believe there would be CCB action from that first orange color NE in Mass It appears to be that way just based off the position of the SLP in the GOM, My guess is the Euro may tic east as well, Been watching the ukie and Euro and the Euro has been following for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 39 minutes ago, medmax said: LOL expect somewhere between 1-50" of snow. Should verify. Not the point....just excessive imo. Larger storms will inherently have larger ranges.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You are forecasting essentially 1'-2' here? Good luck. You telling me 12-24" isn't possible there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Jesus. I just looked at the models for the first time getting home. Ray you're definitely a foot+. Not even a doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hazey said: As exciting as this is, it's getting down right scary looking. Even the Ukie has Halifax over 50mm qpf. Could be stranded for days. Off to the liquor store I go for essential supplies. Seriously. It is all fun and games until it's life or death. Good luck up there. You and your neighbors have weathered storms like this before - you've got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, sbos_wx said: Jesus. I just looked at the models for the first time getting home. Ray you're definitely a foot+. Not even a doubt. GFS looks very good at 12z I don't hate the UKIE I just wanna hear there is a decent CCB from euro, regardless if it is east, west, north or south w SLP, H7 or H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: You telling me 12-24" isn't possible there? I don't think 18"+ is. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 For some reason, I still don't have any understanding of how this storm will be for the suburbs of Boston. When will most of the accumulation occur, overnight??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think 18"+ is. No. The only modeling that gives me a shot at 18-20 is 12z GFS not as bad as having only CMC on your side but i've seen GFS crap itself within 12 hrs too many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think 18"+ is. No. Given the uncertainty of that backside lash 12-24" seems like a reasonable guess from them. Accounting for bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The only modeling that gives me a shot at 18-20 is 12z GFS not as bad as having only CMC on your side but i've seen GFS crap itself within 12 hrs too many times Ok..18-20" ...ouside shot. But 2'? Verifying the lower end of your range is a consolation, not a goal. Jay, no offense.....just disagree a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: Given the uncertainty of that backside lash 12-24" seems like a reasonable guess from them. Accounting for bust. I don't agree with the higher amounts. BOX has gone wild lately with a lot of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ok..18-20" ...ouside shot. But 2'? Verifying the lower end of your range is a consolation, not a goal. Jay, no offense.....just disagree a bit. No I didn't take it as combative at all. No offense taken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Given the uncertainty of that backside lash 12-24" seems like a reasonable guess from them. Accounting for bust. I think 12 is too high for a min range too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don't agree with the higher amounts. BOX has gone wild lately with a lot of things. I haven't seen the accum map. Just speaking to his location especially. Easily cold enough for entire storm, plus he could get ccb. If we see that thunderstorm type of stuff... he would be one of the locations in mass I'd favor for those high end amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: No I didn't take it as combative at all. No offense taken Cool. I know I come off that way sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I think 12 is too high for a min range too. I could see 8-10" if the CCB totally whiffs...which is a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I think 12 is too high for a min range too. For him? I mean I think overall right now I'd forecast a 10-16" range to be exact. I was just speaking that 12-24" isn't out of the realm of possibilities. I *could* see him get 16-24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: For him? I mean I think overall right now I'd forecast a 10-16" range to be exact. I was just speaking that 12-24" isn't out of the realm of possibilities. I *could* see him get 16-24". 10-16" is ok.... I'm even downgrading from my first 12-18" call....modeling is still largely ambivalent regarding impact of CCB in ne MA (Hi, Kev)....I needed that gain traction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I could see 8-10" if the CCB totally whiffs...which is a distinct possibility. Yeah I agree. As much as anyone doesn't want it to happen, a range needs to include a worst case scenario that is still realistic. I'd prob go like 9-15 there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: For him? I mean I think overall right now I'd forecast a 10-16" range to be exact. I was just speaking that 12-24" isn't out of the realm of possibilities. I *could* see him get 16-24". "Within the realm of possibilities" should not be synonymous with forecast. I mean...its within the realm of possibilities that you're going to undergo a gender transition....should I take the leap of faith and refer to you as Jaylo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Quite a bit colder throughout the NE than progged. Wintry precip down to NYC metro. I don't think they ever get above freezing down there. I think there's a real risk this bombs out closer to CC's latitude/longitude. I have a feeling this ticking south continues through go time. I just don't see how the surface makes it much north/west of there given the 500 mb track sliding SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 10-16" is ok.... I'm even downgrading from my first 12-18" call....modeling is still largely ambivalent regarding impact of CCB in ne MA (Hi, Kev)....I needed that gain traction. If we are getting 10-12" south of pike..you're getting in the 14-18" range easily..just sit back , relax and put on your slippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdazed Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 It's a good 6º colder here in RI than predicted, which suggests less of a mix than forecast. I don't think we'll break a foot, but 8-9" seems reasonable now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Ray you do a forecast update on your blog, or you doing one post Euro. Other thing is i would guess ratio's from CCB would be a bit higher than this stuff falling now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Quite a bit colder throughout the NE than progged. Wintry precip down to NYC metro. I don't think they ever get above freezing down there. I think there's a real risk this bombs out closer to CC's latitude/longitude. I have a feeling this ticking south continues through go time. A lot of guidance has ticked east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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