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Feb 9th Coastal Obs


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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

serious question

if it was obvious and part of forecast why did no forecasts have it

It wasn't obvious we'd bust this low necessarily, I'm saying the models, especially short term ones like HRRR and ARW and even the NAM showed the dry slot over NE MA at the beginning.

I think snow ratios also might have something to do with it but I'm not sure because I don't know what the ratios are. I've noticed sometimes during colder storms or storms where theoretically there's a good profile through the DGZ they expect good ratios but it don't always verify that way. We had good radar echoes but the flakes were small and fall slow and then settle a bit like sand.

Also when the HRRR runs came in last night it showed eastern MA getting a lot less than western MA. The HRRR is usually pretty accurate in my eyes but it's still one model and can't always be taken verbatim. Beyond that, I can't tell you why other people forecast the way they do. I think NWS has to go by guidance using a model blend or else they have to explain in the AFD why they went against guidance, but maybe someone from Taunton could chime in on that. 

Hope that answers things a bit. 

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9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

serious question

if it was obvious and part of forecast why did no forecasts have it in accums. Seems someone could paint an AWT onto quite the broad range of outcomes if that is the case. Just to be clear i'm just pointing this out, I enjoyed the last 2 hrs of this storm where i got 6" in 2hrs. It was amazing. 

Hopefully we can do a bit better on Monday.

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1 minute ago, ryanjn said:

It wasn't obvious we'd bust this low necessarily, I'm saying the models, especially short term ones like HRRR and ARW and even the NAM showed the dry slot over NE MA at the beginning.

I think snow ratios also might have something to do with it but I'm not sure because I don't know what the ratios are. I've noticed sometimes during colder storms or storms where theoretically there's a good profile through the DGZ they expect good ratios but it don't always verify that way. We had good radar echoes but the flakes were small and fall slow and then settle a bit like sand.

Also when the HRRR runs came in last night it showed eastern MA getting a lot less than western MA. The HRRR is usually pretty accurate in my eyes but it's still one model and can't always be taken verbatim. Beyond that, I can't tell you why other people forecast the way they do. I think NWS has to go by guidance using a model blend or else they have to explain in the AFD why they went against guidance, but maybe someone from Taunton could chime in on that. 

Hope that answers things a bit. 

Models had Lowell/LWM with like 2" total by 18z. They did well on that part. We'll see how much more falls...this stuff tries to backbuild a little as the low nukes out, so the 1" per hour stuff may last a bit.

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1 minute ago, ryanjn said:

It wasn't obvious we'd bust this low necessarily, I'm saying the models, especially short term ones like HRRR and ARW and even the NAM showed the dry slot over NE MA at the beginning.

I think snow ratios also might have something to do with it but I'm not sure because I don't know what the ratios are. I've noticed sometimes during colder storms or storms where theoretically there's a good profile through the DGZ they expect good ratios but it don't always verify that way. We had good radar echoes but the flakes were small and fall slow and then settle a bit like sand.

Also when the HRRR runs came in last night it showed eastern MA getting a lot less than western MA. The HRRR is usually pretty accurate in my eyes but it's still one model and can't always be taken verbatim. Beyond that, I can't tell you why other people forecast the way they do. I think NWS has to go by guidance using a model blend or else they have to explain in the AFD why they went against guidance, but maybe someone from Taunton could chime in on that. 

Hope that answers things a bit. 

The best banding is getting the best lift in the DGZ. I had 22:1 in my few hours under it. Of course the sand you guys were getting was probably closer to 9-10:1 at the start. 

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2 minutes ago, Dan said:

Hopefully we can do a bit better on Monday.

Hi Dan,

 I'm slightly SE of you in Methuen. Basically moderate to heavy snow since around 11:30. I measured 5.5 inches around 2.  Hopefully we can end up with somewhere between 10-12. At least it finally looks and feels like winter. And then add onto the pack on Saturday and Monday.

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so ended up with just over 16" here, hard to measure with all the drifting and what not... could be more, but avg was 16.5, from 6 different measurements... anyone hit 20? I know that band sat and screamed for a while in central CT and MA, I was in Waterbury for tssn, that was awesome...

Just now, BrianW said:

Looks to be back filling out west in CT?

 

 

 

 

radar12.JPG

yeah Im in a suck hole, snowing all around me

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