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North Balti Zen

February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, I'm patient. I got over frustrations last month and I wasn't even really that frustrated. Things got much more simple as soon as I conceded the most likely outcome this winter by far will be a dud. Chasing a single storm that may or may not happen is much easier than trying to chase a respectable seasonal total. Sometimes we suck a big rotten egg. It's completely normal around here and will happen many times in the future. 

This winter, so far at least, is a perfect 72/73 & 01/02 combo. We should appreciate the beauty of such ugliness.

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

February of 94 actually had a stretch I think where caribou Maine broke their time February record and the AO was very negative. I think it was a very brief warmup though, not a sustained ugly pattern 

There aren't many big +AO DJ years where the back broke in Feb when removing stronger ENSO years. 57, 91, 05, & 07 are all I can find. 05 and 07 were weak ninos so even those aren't good comparables. 57 and 91 are pretty lame in the snow dept for Feb. 

In our region, epic late turnarounds are terrible propositions. This aint no 14-15. lol. At this point just cracking double digits at an airport would be epic and that seems light years away. 

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So the ensemble indecies look good even though the solutions all look ****ty and warm?

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11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This winter, so far at least, is a perfect 72/73 & 01/02 combo. We should appreciate the beauty of such ugliness.

In a few weeks / months we will look back on this time period in amazement of how people were in such denial about how bad this season really was.  

People have been far more apoplectic during patterns far less hostile. 

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There aren't many big +AO DJ years where the back broke in Feb when removing stronger ENSO years. 57, 91, 05, & 07 are all I can find. 05 and 07 were weak ninos so even those aren't good comparables. 57 and 91 are pretty lame in the snow dept for Feb. 

In our region, epic late turnarounds are terrible propositions. This aint no 14-15. lol. At this point just cracking double digits at an airport would be epic and that seems light years away. 

At this point, all things considered (snowfall to date, advertised patterns, review of similar winters, and statistical odds based on prior winters), there is a strong likelihood that we don't see any significant snow at the 3 major airports for the rest of the season. Personally, I'd rather just get this one under our belt and hope for a big bounce back next year.

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29 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Good post, that's pretty much my take on the guidance and pattern.  The Pacific is going to flood the conus and Canada with warmer than normal air so even if we get a trough we'll be fighting normal type temps.   Looks like through the middle of the month is lost. 

This is what I was getting at a few pages back... By the time we get any help from the AO/NAO there isn't (and hasn't been) enough cold to get pushed our way. So things can line up all they want.. Still going to be an uphill battle with temps. The PAC air this year... Crushed us

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37 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

This is what I was getting at a few pages back... By the time we get any help from the AO/NAO there isn't (and hasn't been) enough cold to get pushed our way. So things can line up all they want.. Still going to be an uphill battle with temps. The PAC air this year... Crushed us

The unfavorable ridge/trough placement near AK became a major feature early on. Although the guidance has been insistent at times that a legit -AO/NAO would develop, it has not. The odds were against it and we all knew that. But with very little help up top, this winter was destined to be a struggle. It will be just as tough, or more so, to replenish the cold in the source region as we head into late February.

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Jokes aside the factors lining up now have me hanging on even if it's by a thread. Just like we often see things trend to crap when guidance shows a weenie solution long range in the face of unfavorable influences perhaps things go the other way this time. 

I'm not gonna throw in the towel until after President's Day. Perhaps I'm blinded by the almanacs and our history with that weekend, but in my gut, I feel if we're gonna get anything at all this winter, it'll come around that week. If not, then I have several towels to throw in, lol

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14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Can we get a 60 degree DP next Wednesday?  Only time will tell.

    Put me down for yes.    With the progged 70 kt LLJ, I think we'll see a 64/61 combo early Wednesday.

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13 minutes ago, high risk said:

    Put me down for yes.    With the progged 70 kt LLJ, I think we'll see a 64/61 combo early Wednesday.

Agree... I am just hoping for some storms as well

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16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It's apparent the op GFS doesn't understand MJO phase 8.  

I keep almost expecting to see one or the other give. But yet each day looks both stronger into 8 and warmer. Definitely going to be interesting to see how this game of chicken plays out. 

IMG_0530.GIF

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I keep almost expecting to see one or the other give. But yet each day looks both stronger into 8 and warmer. Definitely going to be interesting to see how this game of chicken plays out. 

IMG_0530.GIF

Perhaps cold east in phase 8 is provided there is actual cold.  Canada looks overrun with PAC air.  No idea

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Perhaps cold east in phase 8 is provided there is actual cold.  Canada looks overrun with PAC air.  No idea

Not usually.  The general tendency is for it to favor a pattern that would lead to it being hard for Canada to torch. 

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Not usually.  The general tendency is for it to favor a pattern that would lead to it being hard for Canada to torch. 

Thank you.  I did not realize that.  What do you suspect is going on?  The models are not responding yet but might later or is it something else?

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9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Not usually.  The general tendency is for it to favor a pattern that would lead to it being hard for Canada to torch. 

That's what I thought too. I wouldn't be surprised to see the PNA/EPO ridge and a stronger trough in the east start showing up in the LR.

GEFS isn't as torchy as the EPS. 12z gefs shows the GOA trough retrograding towards the aleutians and a ridge building into western canada and through AK. That's what *should* happen with a strong MJO phase 8 signal. 

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Thank you.  I did not realize that.  What do you suspect is going on?  The models are not responding yet but might later or is it something else?

My guess is some sort of lagged response due to the anomalous trough/low heights just off the west coast and GOA. Like any other type of large hemispheric forcing mechanism, a 1-1 response is far from guaranteed. That nasty trough is going to do some dirty work first. Hopefully the MJO wave can mute it and help force it out of hostile territory as quick as possible. All we can do is watch and wait and hope and pray.  

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My guess is some sort of lagged response due to the anomalous trough/low heights just off the west coast and GOA. Like any other type of large hemispheric forcing mechanism, a 1-1 response is far from guaranteed. That nasty trough is going to do some dirty work first. Hopefully the MJO wave can mute it and help force it out of hostile territory as quick as possible. All we can do is watch and wait and hope and pray.  

I'm at peace with the fact that chasing any sustained better winter period is dead. That ship sailed. But at this point I'm chasing one event. At least up here several of the biggest storms on record are in march so times not up yet. 

I agree the issue is as the mjo kicks in there are antecedent factors that need to be overcome. Our best hope is that this mjo wave has staying power into 8/1/2 and by feb 25-march10 can force the pattern to a place to open the door to one legit chance. 

Were running out of deals to get a better hand. 

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20 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually the euro mjo goes ape into 8. Something's off. Of course the last wave did nothing for us in phase 1 so the mjo can be offset. But that's a pretty high amplitude mjo wave to be saying it has no effect. We will see. 

IMG_0517.GIF

Have to remember, Statistical Significance in JFM for Phase 8 is not terribly strong.  20-25% chance that anomalies rise above random chance in our area.  Way below the significance for Phases 1&2.

mjo combined_image.png

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8 minutes ago, das said:

Have to remember, Statistical Significance in JFM for Phase 8 is not terribly strong.  20-25% chance that anomalies rise above random chance in our area.  Way below the significance for Phases 1&2.

mjo combined_image.png

So we may need to wait and hope the wave makes it into 1. 

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The 8-1 Boundary is where storms normally occur. It won't be there until the 18th-20th.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So we may need to wait and hope the wave makes it into 1. 

Yes, but...

It's been a while since I read this but, if I remember right, MJO spikes to a high amplitude typically fall back into the COD instead of propagating to the next phases.  If I have time to peruse the UMD AOSC archives this evening, I'll try to find the paper.

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5 minutes ago, das said:

Yes, but...

It's been a while since I read this but, if I remember right, MJO spikes to a high amplitude typically fall back into the COD instead of propagating to the next phases.  If I have time to peruse the UMD AOSC archives this evening, I'll try to find the paper.

That certainly would align with this, no? 

EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

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5 minutes ago, das said:

Yes, but...

It's been a while since I read this but, if I remember right, MJO spikes to a high amplitude typically fall back into the COD instead of propagating to the next phases.  If I have time to peruse the UMD AOSC archives this evening, I'll try to find the paper.

That fits the longer range projections but most slide into 1 before fading into the COD

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So we may need to wait and hope the wave makes it into 1. 

I don't think it really adds much clarity to the situation... Phases 6-7 are low significance too, but by ending up being much stronger than originally forecast still managed to throw a wrench into what looked like a decent setup several days ago. I think it goes back to whatever other factors are influencing the pattern the MJO just enhances or mutes this year. You would think if we manage a strong wave in phases 8-1 it could enhance or extend a window of opportunity, but like you mentioned a sustained 2-3 week "good" pattern is not likely. That being said, it wouldn't surprise me if models just flipped to a better look seemingly out of nowhere given the -AO and incoming favorable MJO phase.

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