OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Small adjustment would keep that south for the critical period in question....Steve is talking like it's +6C. Look, I don't think I'm going to see much snow, but it looks more interesting than it did last night.....trend will probably reverse again, but is what it is. Razor's edge for some right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Small adjustment would keep that south for the critical period in question....Steve is talking like it's +6C. Look, I don't think I'm going to see much snow, but it looks more interesting than it did last night.....trend will probably reverse again, but is what it is. I'd def keep ok eye on it. Agreed on your approach. Not likely that this will trend into a big snow event, but it's enough of a chance to monitor it closely....we aren't talking huge changes. Just one more solid tick...of course, every time we've said that it trends the other way before trending back to our current spot again...we keep clawing back to 3 games out of first place every time we fall further back, but it's past Labor Day now...time to make a run at the division or shut up. We still watch and hope, but the time is ticking away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Nice peltfest 60-66hr here on the Nammy. We await a totally different solution at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 What a bizarre storm this is. I just looked at the temps aloft. Was shocked to see 850mb. This is not a setup that bodes well for anyone. Screaming winds onshore. Cold 850, but marginal at 700. Toasty at 925mb and of course at surface. NNE will get more snow but this is a rain event for SNE in majority. Of course many have already probably stated this, but I was busy and haven't read any pages back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Could be a prolonged IP event for the interior. I'm not seeing much snow for any location except for far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Looks like 18z GFS coming in a little cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 18Z GFS has no QPF concerns up here. Whole lotta mixed precipitation. 6" snow, half an inch of ZR, some sleet, and a little rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Small adjustment would keep that south for the critical period in question....Steve is talking like it's +6C. Look, I don't think I'm going to see much snow, but it looks more interesting than it did last night.....trend will probably reverse again, but is what it is. Yeah cuz that's exactly what I said, good luck on the CP with this look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yeah cuz that's exactly what I said, good luck on the CP with this look Thoughts for here? Big mixed bag ending in rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Flood watches out for eastern mass. Talking about 2-2.5 inches of precip with localized heavier amounts. Too bad there isn't more colder air around. Would be an awesome snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 6z and 18z NAM runs both feature 1"+ in the form of PL for KCON was less than 1/4" on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, Dan said: Flood watches out for eastern mass. Talking about 2-2.5 inches of precip with localized heavier amounts. Too bad there isn't more colder air around. Would be an awesome snow storm Yeah should be a ton of rain. Reservoirs rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yeah cuz that's exactly what I said, good luck on the CP with this look You said it was very warm in the mid levels,which was patently wrong. Sorry; look again. +0-1c at H8 during the interval of consequence is not very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 There is still a pretty big spread in model guidance over ptype this far south...some guidance has decent sleet/snow over ORH county and Berks while others is not that much with a lot of rain. Gonna have to resolve this fairly soon I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Thoughts for here? Big mixed bag ending in rain? That's my take for you and me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There is still a pretty big spread in model guidance over ptype this far south...some guidance has decent sleet/snow over ORH county and Berks while others is not that much with a lot of rain. Gonna have to resolve this fairly soon I'd think. Yes, and make no mistake about it...I expect a lot of rain....but I think some are exaggerating just how far off we are from a snow event. We need a huge adjustment relative to the short lead time being at day 2.5, so I think maybe that is what isn't being articulated clearly. The changes we need are daunting given the short lead, but that is all........the mid levels are simply not that warm north of the pike during the crucial interval of time. As currently modeled, its very close until the latter stages of the event, when the warmth really overtakes the mid levels north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, and make no mistake about it...I expect a lot of rain....but I think some are exaggerating just how far off we are from a snow event. We need a huge adjustment relative to the short lead time being at day 2.5, so I think maybe that is what isn't being articulated clearly. The changes we need are daunting given the short lead, but that is all........the mid levels are simply not that warm north of the pike during the crucial interval of time. Yeah during that 00z-06z Tuesday time frame it's close on some guidance. We've seen bigger shifts before in this lead time so it's certainly worth watching...but definitely an uphill battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Why is it so hard to have this be 31.8 degree icestorm. I just don't get it. They do it in the plains every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why is it so hard to have this be 31.8 degree icestorm. I just don't get it. They do it in the plains every year The high is actually in a pretty good spot for an ice storm but the low level cold just doesn't quite surge enough under the mild airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The high is actually in a pretty good spot for an ice storm but the low level cold just doesn't quite surge enough under the mild airmass. I guess it's also difficult when you're trying to scour out torched 50+ degree mid Atlantic/DC puke out of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This has the potential to be pretty icy for some spots...but the set up would've been devastating for ice with a little colder very low level airmass. The NE feed in cold tuck regions would keep a refreshed supply of cold pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You said it was very warm in the mid levels,which was patently wrong. Sorry; look again. +0-1c at H8 during the interval of consequence is not very warm. Good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Plains does not have a big pond to its east when winds at all levels are easterly gusting way above 45 knots Well you're giving a lot of credit to 2m temps verifying verbatim. GL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Although I think SN/PL/RA is most likely scenario here with only brief FZRA I'll start the genny and chain saw tomorrow just to be sure both are working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well you're giving a lot of credit to 2m temps verifying verbatim. GL Those are dew points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Those are dew points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Good luck with what? It has been conveyed to anyone who is semi acclimated with the english language that I favor primarily rain with very little snow. But the trend is what it is. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/01/cant-yet-close-door-on-monday-night.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Those are dew points Why would you post those ? #meltdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why would you post those ? #meltdown And Steve those are not allowed to be shared. Please stop sharing weatherbell Euro images unless they're allowed - i.e. not raw data only value added stuff. A lot of the stuff you're posting violates the TOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3km nam is just to much now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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