dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm a bit skeptical of the sfc prog...guidance seems to have the cold wedge a bit too far west in my eyes looking at the synoptics of the high. Maybe it's right but I feel like they always want to make the sfc low off to the south and southwest too symmetrical and the flow too geostrophic at sfc. With the flow clockwise around HP shouldn't that be more SSE instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: So close to a snow bomb here...lots to iron out over the next couple of days though. Here is a point pretty close to your place off the 12z GFS. The window for the bulk of the precip is between the green lines (time moving from right to left). You can see that you're below 0C until about 09z, and then the temp above 800 mb climbs to about +2C (falling through a -3C layer before reaching the ground). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: The 12z GFS was the most impressive snow map for SENH this season. Excluding the coast it was 8-12". Even the coast shows 2-5". I'll take that and run with it considering the GFS BL warm bias... We're edging closer to a big winter event here.. I agree, Just a matter if we mix or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm a bit skeptical of the sfc prog...guidance seems to have the cold wedge a bit too far west in my eyes looking at the synoptics of the high. Maybe it's right but I feel like they always want to make the sfc low off to the south and southwest too symmetrical and the flow too geostrophic at sfc. Which is why I chucked in that "regardless." I'm not too concerned about what the GFS is showing me for surface temp and just assuming it will be 32 or colder outside of the torchy spots (coast, CT River, HIE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 You can sign me up for that 12z GFS run, Knowing its bias it would be warning event up here for many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Which is why I chucked in that "regardless." I'm not too concerned about what the GFS is showing me for surface temp and just assuming it will be 32 or colder outside of the torchy spots (coast, CT River, HIE). Its interesting that the gfs was actually colder at the surface than the NAM in S NH. If we get a gfs type evolution id bet the CF would be pinned closer to the coast the NAM is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: Its interesting that the gfs was actually colder at the surface than the NAM in S NH. If we get a gfs type evolution id bet the CF would be pinned closer to the coast the NAM is showing It's odd, in our system here (GFE) the NAM is always warmer than the GFS in CAD situations. Which is the complete opposite of what we are used to. I'm not sure what happened to that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 I think we also need to see where the deep layer lift is. You'd want to see that in the snow grown zone to help fight off the warming in that 850-800 layer. Some models look like they keep it below the DgZ which isn't ideal. That said, I'd take the under on temps 950 and below in the far interior. It seems like we'd have more NE flow vs ENE like some models show. Maybe you have something where you have **** snow growth from low level CF lift while its pelting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: It's odd, in our system here (GFE) the NAM is always warmer than the GFS in CAD situations. Which is the complete opposite of what we are used to. I'm not sure what happened to that model. The 12km has shat the bed on CAD. It was maybe 4 winters ago when I really noticed it (and event in December 2012). The 4km still seems to do very well though. I am def curious as to why the regular 12km NAM is so much worse now. Probably some sort of sacrifice they made for convection but off the top of my head I can't think how it would worsen CAD in the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Its interesting that the gfs was actually colder at the surface than the NAM in S NH. If we get a gfs type evolution id bet the CF would be pinned closer to the coast the NAM is showing 12z NAM was wacky. It holds onto the primary for too long. That was the reason for the warmer temps in general, imo. This is a really complex system, I'd be weighing the globals far more than the mesos right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's odd, in our system here (GFE) the NAM is always warmer than the GFS in CAD situations. Which is the complete opposite of what we are used to. I'm not sure what happened to that model. Very strange. Its been destroying every other model in PDX CAD this year, especially the 3km and 4km but the 12km usually hints at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Where's Kevin? I thought he said this wouldn't come back east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Where's Kevin? I thought he said this wouldn't come back east. LRGW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: LRGW? Little rock ghost writers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Surprised moneypitmeh has been AWOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 I take it the Ukie stunk Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 12z Euro couple tics colder then 0z run so far, Actually a few tics colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Seems like for now it's a bit south thanks to the block up north, but not sure it will matter quite yet. I really wish that darn secondary rapidly developed at the triple point...but that's tough to do when H5 is already closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 That HP is making a nice press to the south this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 A little slower, but definitely colder at sfc and at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Definitely a further south look at H5, so the whole thing is a bit cooler too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Looks better colder then the 0z at hr 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 I'm watching it tick into AWIPS, and it definitely got cooler. I have that same time/height for Dendrite's area and each frame that drops in cools the mid level temps some. I'm watching the 18z Tue frame, because 00z had +4 over his fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 How much snow for rochester ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems like for now it's a bit south thanks to the block up north, but not sure it will matter quite yet. I really wish that darn secondary rapidly developed at the triple point...but that's tough to do when H5 is already closed off. Bingo. This storm is going to town way too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 I know talking about anything but snow is frowned upon but congrats James on the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Pretty sizeable difference between hr 78 from 12z and hr 90 from 0z. That's definitely important for nrn ORH through the rest of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 Amazing 850 gradient from NCT to ORH +8 to -4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 So the Euro cooled about a full degree over central NH, but still showing all snow in the mountain of ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I know talking about anything but snow is frowned upon but congrats James on the wind Winds on the cape are impressive. What is frowned upon is expecting it to mix down away from the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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