STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 This is close to a monster (and also a dud lol) But that is what's on the table today Trends today are HUGE From Woodford VT to Becket (E Slope) over to N Orh hills and Monads they are still in the game for a heavy snow storm while interior CP could still have a mash'd potato bomb (N oF Pike) at least in initial WAA Or it could just rain if we trend warmer or north or less stout with High The icing threat seems weaker, IP threat has potential anticipate Low level cold to hold steady or even be modeled 2-3F colder next few model cycles given strength and position of High near Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Guidance is slowly cooling again so that does get some folks at least back in game if we can keep the trend going one more push. We haven't been able to get that last surge of model cooling though during this system on models. Every time we've gotten close the trend reverses. At least 12z remains a relevant suite to watch. The biggest change has been to reduce that warm tongue well above 850. Perhaps models are now starting to grasp the depth of the cold a little more. It isn't unusual to under estimate it when you have that high position. Will if you get that one more obvious cold push (Hypothetically speaking) could this not be a monster of a Snow storm for E SLOPE to Weenie Ridge and Monads with other areas then getting into "the game" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Guidance is slowly cooling again so that does get some folks at least back in game if we can keep the trend going one more push. We haven't been able to get that last surge of model cooling though during this system on models. Every time we've gotten close the trend reverses. At least 12z remains a relevant suite to watch. The biggest change has been to reduce that warm tongue well above 850. Perhaps models are now starting to grasp the depth of the cold a little more. It isn't unusual to under estimate it when you have that high position. Definitely cooled enough to keep me interested to see 12z, but like you said it wouldnt take much of a shift back the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Will if you get that one more obvious cold push (Hypothetically speaking) could this not be a monster of a Snow storm for E SLOPE to Weenie Ridge and Monads with other areas then getting into "the game" Yeah if things trend just right there is still potential for a huge snow event in those areas...but it needs some work obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah if things trend just right there is still potential for a huge snow event in those areas...but it needs some work obviously. I like to throw December 92 in the mix for the highest elevations. (Obviously not the same setup) but to illustrate what elevation and crazy adabatic cooling with the super strong east flow can do. I think southern ski country is still in the game for a major snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The GFS dumbells this farther east too. That would help for sure. Obviously some changes at500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I like to throw December 92 in the mix for the highest elevations. (Obviously not the same setup) but to illustrate what elevation and crazy adabatic cooling with the super strong east flow can do. I think southern ski country is still in the game for a major snow event That had much colder air to work with. There was 16" of paste here from that. This one there's all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The 500 changes are notable compared to 18z yesterday. On the 6z GFS, the best forcing is definitely over the waters south of New England compared to curling it up into NY, and the kicker trough out west has flattened the flow in the Plains which basically progresses the system east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That had much colder air to work with. There was 16" of paste here from that. This one there's all rain Dumbell this thing Eastward, Press that high south, let the models pick up on LLC and you could at least have a SLEET FEST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Also, Ray may play with a CF and weenie light snows break out from PWM to NE MA ahead of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Scott does that little LP ahead of this main low do anything for this main storm or does it just fizzle out. I was wondering if it could function to back winds more NE as opposed to east over E mass. (should main storm trend more like 6z GFS) On the 6z Hi Res nam this system is quite notable in QPF fields Tomorrow Southern 1/2 of SNE thru End of Pats game http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_6z/ptot45.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Also, Ray may play with a CF and weenie light snows break out from PWM to NE MA ahead of the low. rpm/nam show this pretty well on monday. Could see drizzle/freezing drizzle too, but maybe the CF will create enough low level lift to keep it light snow west of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Also, Ray may play with a CF and weenie light snows break out from PWM to NE MA ahead of the low. That will never satisfy him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Scott does that little LP ahead of this main low do anything for this main storm or does it just fizzle out. I was wondering if it could function to back winds more NE as opposed to east over E mass. On the 6z Hi Res nam this system is quite notable in QPF fields Tomorrow Southern 1/2 of SNE On which model and at what hour? Guidance has been struggling with the low center showing a broad circulation (which is possible) and then showing low centers sort of jumping around with convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: rpm/nam show this pretty well on monday Yeah and it makes sense. Windham Whalloper enroute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That had much colder air to work with. There was 16" of paste here from that. This one there's all rain I wouldn't say "much colder" that was mid December so offshore waters were considerably warmer allowing for warming on a east flow. Agreed your definitely too low for this one, I have been talking about above 2k this time not 1k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah and it makes sense. Windham Whalloper enroute? Need another tic colder, but I was a little surprised how cold the gfs was at the sfc here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: On which model and at what hour? Guidance has been struggling with the low center showing a broad circulation (which is possible) and then showing low centers sort of jumping around with convection. RGEM has been most bullish with that front running wave. You can see it at 42-48h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I wouldn't say "much colder" that was mid December so offshore waters were considerably warmer allowing for warming on a east flow. Agreed your definitely too low for this one, I have been talking about above 2k this time not 1k. The boundary layer isn't going to be the inhibiting factor in this for snow. At least not inland. No way with that high position. All about the MLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM has been most bullish with that front running wave. You can see it at 42-48h All other things being Equal, How would that depiction of lead wave effect the main storm (even if we get that move colder-theoretically) or what should snow lovers hope for with that lead wave. Could it effect position of coastal front with main show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM has been most bullish with that front running wave. You can see it at 42-48h I haven't even looked at that model. Yeah that's bullish. I suppose it could help keep winds backed a bit inland, but in the grand scheme...it may be modeled incorrectly and I don't think it does much to the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: All other things being Equal, How would that depiction of lead wave effect the main storm (even if we get that move colder-theoretically) or what should snow lovers hope for with that lead wave. Could it effect position of coastal front with main show I think a stronger lead wave would probably be good but I'm with Scott in being skeptical of it really occurring to any significant magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The boundary layer isn't going to be the inhibiting factor in this for snow. At least not inland. No way with that high position. All about the MLs. Do we still have a ZR potential from ORH south to the CT border if cooler trends continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 I'd also like to see the secondary develop faster east of the Delmarva. That definitely would help contract the mid levels while keeping the low offshore. It seems like the models swing the primary into WV where it commits suicide and then develop the secondary east of the Delmarva. As that swings and dies into WV, that's when we flood the mid levels with warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 I still don't expect much on the coast, but these differences are pretty big for the marginal areas like SNH-ORH etc. Even interior NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 That was a good 06z run of the GFS, We are starting to look more like snow/IP in the inland areas away from the coast, The colder push was noted at 0z last night so now we wait to see if that improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Modfan said: Do we still have a ZR potential from ORH south to the CT border if cooler trends continue? Yeah it's still there though I think the soundings are trending a bit away from that. Could be more sleet for a decent period given the warm layer is more near 800 and it's becoming shallower with time...we'll see though. Still a lot of time to parse through ptype as we get closer. Guidance is definitely struggling a bit with how to handle the polar airmass. They can't seem to decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I still don't expect much on the coast, but these differences are pretty big for the marginal areas like SNH-ORH etc. Even interior NE MA. Do they matter south of 90? Other than Ryan it seems we are red headed step kids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Do they matter south of 90? Other than Ryan it seems we are red headed step kids You need the faster secondary development that Scott was alluding to. You see that being modeled at 12z and your pants will loosen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 0z and 6z trends have certainly not been that discouraging for the deep interior. We seemed to have cancelled out the 18z noose tying from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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