OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 15 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: I Hhave to ask...why is the snow total so choppy over Merrimack County? Why would there be a wide strip of lighter snow between Laconia and Concord? Although your tiniest yellow dot is near my house, and I see you've kept Brian in the yellow. Well it's all been blown away now by the mid shift, but the reasoning was strong E flow favored the higher terrain E upslope when I did the QPF grids. The resulting snowfall really wasn't a huge difference though, mainly a color scale thing. 5.4" versus 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: You need the faster secondary development that Scott was alluding to. You see that being modeled at 12z and your pants will loosen Well the mets said N CT is out of the talk for snow, but I was hoping for a ping fest or lots of zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well it's all been blown away now by the mid shift, but the reasoning was strong E flow favored the higher terrain E upslope when I did the QPF grids. The resulting snowfall really wasn't a huge difference though, mainly a color scale thing. 5.4" versus 6" He will be fine when you place him back in the yellow shading so he can get his .60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well the mets said N CT is out of the talk for snow, but I was hoping for a ping fest or lots of zr I think it may help nrn CT with more IP or perhaps ZR? Your latitude sort of hurts because of strong warming just off the deck so it may cause a 32.5 rain for a longer time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: He will be fine when you place him back in the yellow shading so he can get his .60" Honestly, I am wondering what happened on the mid shift. I haven't read our AFD yet, but unless they purposefully went warmer than guidance the GFS forecast soundings for CON are warning snows before drying/dry slot brings mixed precip. We only have 2.8" in the forecast there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Honestly, I am wondering what happened on the mid shift. I haven't read our AFD yet, but unless they purposefully went warmer than guidance the GFS forecast soundings for CON are warning snows before drying/dry slot brings mixed precip. We only have 2.8" in the forecast there. Maybe still celebrating our new prez? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe still celebrating our new prez? He's glaring at me and saying I should update the long term grid ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: He's glaring at me and saying I should update the long term grid ASAP. Make P & C great again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 I know this is O/T, but you cannot get more of a stark comparison in that image. Uccelini and Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think it may help nrn CT with more IP or perhaps ZR? Your latitude sort of hurts because of strong warming just off the deck so it may cause a 32.5 rain for a longer time. Let's tickle that down to 31.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Make P & C great again. I would say make the GFS great again, but was it ever really great? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: I would say make the GFS great again, but was it ever really great? Why do that when you can run the CFS 4 times a day? Logical use of bandwidth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Why do that when you can run the CFS 4 times a day? Logical use of bandwidth. I have this idea to take the 84hr NAM and to run the GFS off of it from that point out to 192hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Why do that when you can run the CFS 4 times a day? Logical use of bandwidth. Or the ensembles to d16 4 times per day...we really need that 11-15 updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 lol...anyways Those were mighty interesting 6z runs up here. Hopefully we can score another tick cooler for this set of runs or at least hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 All good points. Anyways, seems like early returns for 12z NAM look a bit cooler. It's very early though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Honestly, I am wondering what happened on the mid shift. I haven't read our AFD yet, but unless they purposefully went warmer than guidance the GFS forecast soundings for CON are warning snows before drying/dry slot brings mixed precip. We only have 2.8" in the forecast there. Well i wondered as well when i looked at the map and saw PWM cut back to 1-2" and less further east that it looked like somebody saw some warming but don't know where because 0z was showing it start to cool some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 FWIW, the ensemble sensitivity stuff is keying on the shortwave just off the coast of TX. Lower heights there mean stronger high later on here. So far the 00z ECMWF is winning the battle on heights down there over the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 NAM looks ok with placement of the high so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Looks more wound up at least...still early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 32 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: He's glaring at me and saying I should update the long term grid ASAP. I'm dreading Monday morning because of that picture... On topic, hopefully this is the last mostly rainstorm up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Nam looks warmer and west through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Yeah ULL is sharper. This looks warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 This run won't do it for most fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Still a very pronounced warm tongue around 800. Scalping for alot of NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 At least if its going to more of an ice event, Rather it be IP if that's the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Looks like IP for ORH at 54 and then ZR in the 57-60 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 May need a hard hat here, Christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The difference in ULL track is amazing between guidance right now. This run has the H5 low over Erie PA at 66h. The previous run was over MD and some models like GGEM are over ORF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The difference in ULL track is amazing between guidance right now. This run has the H5 low over Erie PA at 66h. The previous run was over MD and some models like GGEM are over ORF. What changed synoptically that drove the models away from a more offshore solution from a couple days ago? Is it just the strength of the block over Hudson Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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