Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Some changes on the 0z suite so far, And towards a positive which is good, Will see if they continue, 12z GGEM was snow up here as well, Looked better all around for your area. Lot of taint on the GGEM which is good for you because of its warm thermal bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Some changes on the 0z suite so far, And towards a positive which is good, Will see if they continue, 12z GGEM was snow up here as well, Looked better all around for your area. Yeah hopefully they continue. At least try and keep the ski resorts and snow mobile country mostly snow out of this...I've noticed the colder temp changes come relatively early in the storm and then moderate the further out you go on guidance. I'm wondering if we see it continue as we get closer...maybe the model is "seeing" the depth of the cold air right up front and then eroding it quickly. Just a thought. I noticed in all guidance that the downstream ridging ahead of the main shortwave was having more trouble lifting the heights in Quebec and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah hopefully they continue. At least try and keep the ski resorts and snow mobile country mostly snow out of this...I've noticed the colder temp changes come relatively early in the storm and then moderate the further out you go on guidance. I'm wondering if we see it continue as we get closer...maybe the model is "seeing" the depth of the cold air right up front and then eroding it quickly. Just a thought. I noticed in all guidance that the downstream ridging ahead of the main shortwave was having more trouble lifting the heights in Quebec and New England. Way back machine had the same issue 39 years ago this weekend, rain was in the forecast for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Way back machine had the same issue 39 years ago this weekend, rain was in the forecast for all The blizzard of '78 before the blizzard of '78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The blizzard of '78 before the blizzard of '78. Yes but there was no negatively tilted ULL on that one, but the cold was expected to retreat out of Maine instead it slide down the coast Cad style. Lee side of Apps cyclogenisis promotes CAD. I am leaning icy mix interior. Like inches of sleet and the CAD dudettes FRZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah hopefully they continue. At least try and keep the ski resorts and snow mobile country mostly snow out of this...I've noticed the colder temp changes come relatively early in the storm and then moderate the further out you go on guidance. I'm wondering if we see it continue as we get closer...maybe the model is "seeing" the depth of the cold air right up front and then eroding it quickly. Just a thought. I noticed in all guidance that the downstream ridging ahead of the main shortwave was having more trouble lifting the heights in Quebec and New England. Looks like the colder air washes out and the warm air overtakes the lower levels at the height of the storm after an initial burst, Looks like it erodes it rather quickly which is suspect i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lot of taint on the GGEM which is good for you because of its warm thermal bias The difference between 12z and 0z was at 12z the slp was stronger when it reached this lat and was maturing by 4 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Not sure what model(s) they use to create these but It seems about as uncertain any storm I can recall being at this range with the spread on the pink and blue plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 0z Ukie looks like it tracks the secondary low from the delmarva over FMH into the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 This one doesn't have me interested....one of those "million and one ways to not snow" nebulous deals- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This one doesn't have me interested....one of those "million and one ways to not snow" nebulous deals- Most likely solution for our latitude...probably some mixed junk...esp inland and maybe starting as a burst of snow, but we probably have too much work to do in too little time to get this thing into a big snow. CNE and NNE are a different story. Best course of action is definitely "expect little and hope for a last minute surprise". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Little colder 0z Euro run as well as the rest of the 0z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Maybe a bit slower, too- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Its a hair better west of the CTRV, worse east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 What it show for rochester ny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 17 minutes ago, tim123 said: What it show for rochester ny? About 8"....much heavier ne of you in Ontario- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 8 is great heavy gloppy snow storm. Wish I had snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 40 70. Do you have a text output? Or snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 I'm glad I've only had a minor interest in this since the 12z run on Thursday blip. That said, the storm itself will be impressive as it plods along. I'll be surprised if there's more than a minor impact (one or two inches before sleet/rn) for anyone south of the VT/NH border. The surprise area for down south will be in far western Franklin and western Hampshire Counties (Beast area and west). Maybe 12z runs will be more encouraging. But as Will said, lots of things needed and little time left. And, as Ray said, there are a millions ways this won't give us snow. For the area referenced above--here's the mess BOX has (it's my zfp, but I'm too far east and don't have good enough elevation): Sunday Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Highs in the lower 40s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Sunday Night Cloudy with a chance of rain...snow and sleet. Lows in the upper 20s. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Monday Snow and sleet. Brisk. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Monday Night Snow...sleet and freezing rain. Near steady temperature around 30. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Tuesday Rain and freezing rain likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow...sleet and freezing rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 6z gfs is cold. Pretty good isothermal thump right down to MHT and N ORH county. Much smaller warm tongue on the soundings than the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 21 minutes ago, wx2fish said: 6z gfs is cold. Pretty good isothermal thump right down to MHT and N ORH county. Much smaller warm tongue on the soundings than the nam This distrirbution looks odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: This distrirbution looks odd. Im sure it would be heavily intensity and elevation dependent with that profile. It atleast keeps me interested in seeing the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Im sure it would be heavily intensity and elevation dependent with that profile. It atleast keeps me interested in seeing the 12z runs More at BTV than at mitch's looks suspect to me. Other things as well, but that one jumped out as odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 35 minutes ago, wx2fish said: 6z gfs is cold. Pretty good isothermal thump right down to MHT and N ORH county. Much smaller warm tongue on the soundings than the nam Any ip or zr south of ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Any ip or zr south of ORH? that run may start you as sn/ip for a short time, pretty isothermal soundings. Not as much zr on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 16 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: More at BTV than at mitch's looks suspect to me. Other things as well, but that one jumped out as odd. This is why. Man this would be sweet... -6C at H850 with a bunch of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This is why. Man this would be sweet... -6C at H850 with a bunch of precipitation. 1.5 on scooter. Dry begets dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Lol not a whole lot of discussion with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 16 minutes ago, Professional Lurker said: Lol not a whole lot of discussion with this one. And I think that speaks volumes. Jeff, PF, Brian are posting away with hope and anticipation; Dave and I are resigned that it's going to be meh; and Kevin pleads to mets in hope that they may tell him he'll ping for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Guidance is slowly cooling again so that does get some folks at least back in game if we can keep the trend going one more push. We haven't been able to get that last surge of model cooling though during this system on models. Every time we've gotten close the trend reverses. At least 12z remains a relevant suite to watch. The biggest change has been to reduce that warm tongue well above 850. Perhaps models are now starting to grasp the depth of the cold a little more. It isn't unusual to under estimate it when you have that high position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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