CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 That looked like a lot of sleet and zR for Worcester after some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Very nice trends on the models. GFS looks damn good for a heavy snow/sleet thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Euro is so close from SNH into N ORH county. -/+ 1C in the mid levels (700-800mb) will make a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, wx2fish said: Euro is so close from SNH into N ORH county. -/+ 1C in the mid levels (700-800mb) will make a huge difference Dare I ask just west of the CRV near the VT line at 1000'? What a kitchen sink mess from BOX. My p/c is calilng for 3-5". ZFP calls for "moderate accomulation". "Most likely" snow map says to draw the blinds. Tonight A chance of rain before 8pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 8pm and midnight, then a chance of snow and sleet after midnight. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 30. East wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected. Monday Snow and sleet likely before 4pm, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. East wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Monday Night Rain, snow, and sleet before 4am, then snow and sleet between 4am and 5am, then rain, snow, and sleet after 5am. Low around 32. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tuesday Rain showers and sleet, becoming all rain after 9am. High near 38. Northeast wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Dare I ask just west of the CRV near the VT line at 1000'? Looks to keep you below freezing through heaviest action. Awful close in the mid levels as well, probably snow/sleet. 12z will be interesting for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Still not much change in CT outside of perhaps a bit more mixing with sleet during that initial surge of moisture , especially in NW CT. Still looks like many hours of 34-37 degree rain for many in the northern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Still not much change in CT outside of perhaps a bit more mixing with sleet during that initial surge of moisture , especially in NW CT. Still looks like many hours of 34-37 degree rain for many in the northern half of the state. Just about all modeling shows a period of very strong wind gusts over the higher elevations in NW and NE CT and ORH hills..with gusts over 50.. Other than that..the winter of the rainers continues for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 30 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Looks to keep you below freezing through heaviest action. Awful close in the mid levels as well, probably snow/sleet. 12z will be interesting for sure Thanks. I guess a tick in either direction will be the difference between noteworthy and meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just about all modeling shows a period of very strong wind gusts over the higher elevations in NW and NE CT and ORH hills..with gusts over 50.. Other than that..the winter of the rainers continues for us My thoughts are maybe 40-45 on the hilltops, enough to create scattered damage but nothing too crazy. Probably LI, SE New England have the better wind damage threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just about all modeling shows a period of very strong wind gusts over the higher elevations in NW and NE CT and ORH hills..with gusts over 50.. Other than that..the winter of the rainers continues for us we must summon the snow gods to get snow weather back here... walking a fine line with this one, a few ticks and it could be fruitful for my area and the Berks... unless a pattern flip, looks like NNE winter this year...I think I may have 4" this entire month!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 If everything ticked colder overnight then why didn't mine and Jeff and Brian's snowfall forecast worsen significantly from 3 to 7 inches to 1 to 3 inches? Is it simply forecaster interpretation or did the models actually change to be less snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, tavwtby said: we must summon the snow gods to get snow weather back here... walking a fine line with this one, a few ticks and it could be fruitful for my area and the Berks... unless a pattern flip, looks like NNE winter this year...I think I may have 4" this entire month!! I'm losing faith in the winter. It started off positively but I might come in below average. I know it's way too soon to claim that as we're still a week from Feb. 1. But the weather gods don't seem to be smiling on us of late. I'm looking forward to my return to the 'non-springs of the Midcoast'. The most gloomy part of the year. 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: If everything ticked colder overnight then why didn't mine and Jeff and Brian's snowfall forecast worsen significantly from 3 to 7 inches to 1 to 3 inches? Is it simply forecaster interpretation or did the models actually change to be less snow? I think it's reflecting the fact that you're pinging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 And now it is 2-4 for some reason it changed again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, moneypitmike said: I'm losing faith in the winter. It started off positively but I might come in below average. I know it's way too soon to claim that as we're still a week from Feb. 1. But the weather gods don't seem to be smiling on us of late. I'm looking forward to my return to the 'non-springs of the Midcoast'. The most gloomy part of the year. I think it's reflecting the fact that you're pinging. Yes but everything at 0z ticked coldetcolder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Lots of sanding and salting will be happening NAM is a little better but not enough for a good thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Yes but everything at 0z ticked coldetcolder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Yes but everything at 0z ticked coldetcolder Still a mighty warm tongue, so probably lots of sleet there. The soundings still look a little weird to me. Either subsidence in the DGZ like the GFS has, or more shallow lift below the DGZ. The dacks west of Lake Champlain could get a dumping closer to the deformation area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Lots of sanding and salting will be happening NAM is a little better but not enough for a good thump Nams definitely been on the warmer side with the mid level temps, lots of sleet. Have to see how that trends at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still a mighty warm tongue, so probably lots of sleet there. The soundings still look a little weird to me. Either subsidence in the DGZ like the GFS has, or more shallow lift below the DGZ. The dacks west of Lake Champlain could get a dumping closer to the deformation area. Yeah I'm leaning towards like 3" of sleet here, haha. It just doesn't strike me as a snow bomb until you are more in the Adirondacks or up towards Montreal...but even there its warm in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Lots of sanding and salting will be happening NAM is a little better but not enough for a good thump Still showing 3-10" in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah I'm leaning towards like 3" of sleet here, haha. It just doesn't strike me as a snow bomb until you are more in the Adirondacks or up towards Montreal...but even there its warm in the mid-levels. IP=boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Still showing 3-10" in SNE Only if you count IP as 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I'm leaning towards like 3" of sleet here, haha. It just doesn't strike me as a snow bomb until you are more in the Adirondacks or up towards Montreal...but even there its warm in the mid-levels. Curious how you guys do with the deep ESE flow. Maybe blocked on your side helping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Curious how you guys do with the deep ESE flow. Maybe blocked on your side helping? The eastern dacks usually do well in that setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 23 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Yes but everything at 0z ticked coldetcolder QPF problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The other thing is the forcing really is closer to the coast. I don't see a huge deformation or CCB other than a massive arc of low to mid level lift heading north. So that can cause downwind issues from the deep forcing closer to the coast. Then again the flow banks up against the high terrain up in NH and ME which helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Well hopefully 12z comes in colder for you guys. Should be a good storm down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The other thing is the forcing really is closer to the coast. I don't see a huge deformation or CCB other than a massive arc of low to mid level lift heading north. So that can cause downwind issues from the deep forcing closer to the coast. Then again the flow banks up against the high terrain up in NH and ME which helps. Definitely can see this with the gfs. Tons of forcing across E MA, definitely some subby issues somewhere outside that lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 33 minutes ago, dendrite said: QPF problems Jeebus, I thought that was he least of our problems. Lol at this storm. The tics have been colder colder colder each cycle with a storm out of the gulf and now we don't have qpf. This has slowly but surely become another below average winter and I'm not convinced its going to change, no matter what some model says. Dry and chilly on the menu now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well hopefully 12z comes in colder for you guys. Should be a good storm down this way. Dumpage incoming looking at the models this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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