moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Does anyone know why the RGEM is showing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Does anyone know why the RGEM is showing this? Because it's mostly sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 That's a big H5 shift offshore. Definitely important to see how it continues or if guidance continues that. Offshore would help limit warm tongue penatration to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Does anyone know why the RGEM is showing this? Because its mainly all sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Because it's mostly sleet? I thought this looks at all frozen as 10:1. Considering that most of Mass snow that's depicted is from what happens tonight/tomorrow a.m., it's suggesting virtually no snow for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, moneypitmike said: I thought this looks at all frozen as 10:1. Considering that most of Mass snow that's depicted is from what happens tonight/tomorrow a.m., it's suggesting virtually no snow for anyone. I think he has different calculations with different models. It's best to just avoid those maps altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 17 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: It's a combination of, for me, a surreal political catastrophe, along with showing our house almost everyday, planning where to live while the new one is built, and then the somewhat frustrating winter. I've earned my melt. Maybe the gem is right Man up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I think he has different calculations with different models. It's best to just avoid those maps altogether. But sometimes they're so pretty...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: I thought this looks at all frozen as 10:1. Considering that most of Mass snow that's depicted is from what happens tonight/tomorrow a.m., it's suggesting virtually no snow for anyone. Some of those maps explicitly say " [*INCLUDES SLEET*] " . The RGEM maps do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I thought this looks at all frozen as 10:1. Considering that most of Mass snow that's depicted is from what happens tonight/tomorrow a.m., it's suggesting virtually no snow for anyone. Its also outside 48 hrs, The storm does not get cranking until hr 51 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I think I'm leaning primarily sleet up here. I've seen this song and dance before. I find it hard to believe we're going to wash out +3C Tw's with strong UVVs. We'll see how the euro trends in that H75-H8 layer soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Snow maps are like blow to weenies. Just can't stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think I'm leaning primarily sleet up here. I've seen this song and dance before. I find it hard to believe we're going to wash out +3C Tw's with strong UVVs. We'll see how the euro trends in that H75-H8 layer soon. The Euro is just so much colder than the other models. I mean we know the warm air loves to come in sooner than forecast aloft (which agrees with your sleet forecast), but Euro would have to be like 3 or 4 degrees too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Man up? Manning up does not mean ignoring stress, dude. Unless of course you want to die early from a heart attack. However I have a good life and not a lot to complain about. I will most definitely be manning up over the next couple years though as it relates to the political situation though. although I have to say women tend to be the tougher gender so the term manning up should be selectively applied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: Some of those maps explicitly say " [*INCLUDES SLEET*] " . The RGEM maps do not. I know the RGEM GRIBs have separate files with accumulated ptype for snow, sleet, zr, and rain. So my guess is he takes that snow file and plops a 10:1 onto it. He doesn't need to add any algorithms to determine how much QPF falls with specific ptypes since CMC does it for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Manning up does not mean ignoring stress, dude. Unless of course you want to die early from a heart attack. However I have a good life and not a lot to complain about. I will most definitely be manning up over the next couple years though as it relates to the political situation though. although I have to say women tend to be the tougher gender so the term manning up should be selectively applied. We kid Marko geezus cripes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Get me some QPF up here Chris. The GFS has a nice <0.25" anti-jack around Plymouth. Its definitely wrong. It gives BTV QPF and we know winter systems don't precipitate up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The Euro is just so much colder than the other models. I mean we know the warm air loves to come in sooner than forecast aloft (which agrees with your sleet forecast), but Euro would have to be like 3 or 4 degrees too cold. Obviously I am not comparing this to 93 but some elements brought me back and I just saw it appears some of your brethren remember that too. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1104 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 ...High Risk of long lived and destructive tornadoes today... North Florida and southeast Georgia residents, The severe weather event we are about to go through has the potential to be one of the most severe weather outbreaks since the 1993 Super Storm and possibly like the big tornado outbreak near the University of Alabama a few years ago. A Tornado Watch called a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) is likely to be issued for our area later today. Unfortunately reports are that 11 people have already died in southern Georgia overnight. You need to take this situation extremely seriously, like you would a potential hurricane. Some things you need to know 1. Have a means to be alerted to severe weather, multiple means are better. Most major phone carriers carry the Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) and it automatically goes to your phone, but if you have turned it off please turn it back on today. The FEMA App will also alert you and it is free. The Red Cross also has a tornado app with a great deal of useful information. 2. Keep your phones charged at all times today. 3. If you have a NOAA weather radio make sure it has fresh batteries and if it is stored this is the time to break it out. 4. Monitor the broadcast media and the NWS Jacksonville webpage, Facebook and Twitter. 5. When a warning is issued, many people want to confirm the information. Unfortunately today the storms will be moving so fast that before you have the time to confirm the threat the tornado could be on you. Please if a warning is issued resist the urge to confirm the information and take shelter immediately, it could save your or a family members life! 6. Have something to cover your head, Motorcycle or Bike helmet. 7. Find a safe room, preferably an interior room with minimum glass in the room. Generally bathrooms are safest but avoid rooms with large mirrors. 8. Please do not try to outrun a tornado in a vehicle, they will be moving fast and on winding country roads you are likely to lose the race. Find a safe shelter in a sturdy building as quickly as possible. 9. Mobile and prefabricated homes are NOT safe in severe weather, especially older ones. Hopefully, we can escape this situation without anyone being injured or significant damage, no one would be happier than the employees of the National Weather Service, but we need to you take precautions should the worst happen today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The Euro is just so much colder than the other models. I mean we know the warm air loves to come in sooner than forecast aloft (which agrees with your sleet forecast), but Euro would have to be like 3 or 4 degrees too cold. It's a tough call. I've seen the NAM win these battles before and I've seen it blow chunks all over the car like Kevin. The mid level centers have been trending quite a bit east over the past 24hr of runs. I keep waiting for a trend in the other direction from one of the sides, but there hasn't been much caving yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I thought this looks at all frozen as 10:1. Considering that most of Mass snow that's depicted is from what happens tonight/tomorrow a.m., it's suggesting virtually no snow for anyone. It takes all snow and makes it 10:1 ratio. The RGEM was a shoveling sleet storm for most of NNE/CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think he has different calculations with different models. It's best to just avoid those maps altogether. I wish clown maps were un-invented. They are awful. They infiltrate everywhere too on social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Obviously I am not comparing this to 93 but some elements brought me back and I just saw it appears some of your brethren remember that too. Sure, the severe might be comparable, but overall I don't think it fits well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I wish clown maps were un-invented. They are awful. They infiltrate everywhere too on social media. And some NWS offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Sure, the severe might be comparable, but overall I don't think it fits well. Just has that vibe to me up and down the coast. I realize you were like 10 at the time and this is not a snowstorm but I just likened some of the elements, severe, sleet,winds not a 1 to 1 comparison. Just brought me back that is all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: And some NWS offices. Pivotal weather does a fantastic job and despite others dismissing the Kuchera method it has been very spot on this season. Bufkit warehouse is pretty cool too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Just has that vibe to me up and down the coast. I realize you were like 10 at the time and this is not a snowstorm but I just likened some of the elements, severe, sleet,winds not a 1 to 1 comparison. Just brought me back that is all Sorry, calling it a warmer and weaker Storm of the Century seems like a bad comparison then. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Sorry, calling it a warmer and weaker Storm of the Century seems like a bad comparison then. Just my opinion. I agree let's move on. What's your forecast for Rumford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Sorry, calling it a warmer and weaker Storm of the Century seems like a bad comparison then. Just my opinion. it's a new century, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 24 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think I'm leaning primarily sleet up here. I've seen this song and dance before. I find it hard to believe we're going to wash out +3C Tw's with strong UVVs. We'll see how the euro trends in that H75-H8 layer soon. I'm with you. Leaning heavy heavy sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pivotal weather does a fantastic job and despite others dismissing the Kuchera method it has been very spot on this season. Bufkit warehouse is pretty cool too. At least it factors in temps aloft. But still falls short, especially in situations like this. 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I agree let's move on. What's your forecast for Rumford Well I think you can see it on there. Right around 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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