Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 I don't think this thing's going to exactly end on a dime, either.. I'm seeing 70 to 90% RH loaded through the 800 mb level, with ENE mid BL flow of 20 kts ripping into eastern zones. If there's any IVT left in the wake, i bet that's good for some rad filling back in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 We are def. honing in on a comp solution, as the EURO caved towards the GFS/NAM to a slight degree, and vice versa. Consensus solution is to be outside of rt 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We are def. honing in on a comp solution, as the EURO caved towards the GFS/NAM to a slight degree, and vice versa. Consensus solution is to be outside of rt 128. Ray you going to give your final thoughts later on possible area(s) accumulations what they may get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, 512high said: Ray you going to give your final thoughts later on possible area(s) accumulations what they may get? I'll have a first call tonight....final tmw night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We are def. honing in on a comp solution, as the EURO caved towards the GFS/NAM to a slight degree, and vice versa. Consensus solution is to be outside of rt 128. I agree there's fairly decent concensus right now...of course slight differences mean a lot to those toeing the line but overall this is fairly tight among the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 I'll be pleased w/ 4" of paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Can we just get a tic colder so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'll be pleased w/ 4" of paste. I think that's what we're looking at. It's still deep winter in the woods, but the fields have a lot of bare spots. A refresher is much needed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I think that's what we're looking at. It's still deep winter in the woods, but the fields have a lot of bare spots. A refresher is much needed! It's pretty much bare ground near me. Some stout high density stuff would help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 This should push me back up to about a foot of pack. Looks like borderline warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: I'm about to reference the SREF But maybe a little red flag that an ensemble that is typically warm biased, has decent snow into N MA and coastal NNE. What's "decent"? I.e. how much does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: What's "decent"? Like near advisory criteria, 3" or so. But like I said, that ensemble seems to have a warm bias and the fact that it is showing any snow in SNE is probably a good thing. It has also been trending colder and snowier with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: What's "decent"? The snow probs seem to be centered more up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: The snow probs seem to be centered more up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: The snow probs seem to be centered more up here. My gut would be to drag that all just a little bit south. I think that PWM could easily be in the watch too. Likewise coastal York and maybe even Rockingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not bad for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Not bad for sure. 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I wonder if that 1-4" in CT is seeing sleet and counting that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I wonder if that 1-4" in CT is seeing sleet and counting that? Well that product is the max amount from any member at each grid point, so it could just be a GGW ensemble member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I wonder if that 1-4" in CT is seeing sleet and counting that? That's max 3 hr snow you have . 25 IP on the prob but new one coming out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 43 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Like near advisory criteria, 3" or so. But like I said, that ensemble seems to have a warm bias and the fact that it is showing any snow in SNE is probably a good thing. It has also been trending colder and snowier with time. Good points. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll have a first call tonight....final tmw night. Tomorrow night? Isnt it supposed to be progress by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 BTV expanded Advisories north with a mid-evening update and issued a new map. This is pretty much my thoughts as well...a dense 3-6" for a relatively large area, some elevation dependence too for low level warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 50 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: My gut would be to drag that all just a little bit south. I think that PWM could easily be in the watch too. Likewise coastal York and maybe even Rockingham. GFS MOS would agree. Honestly I'm a bit surprised how cold this is for kpsm--temp never gets to freezing and surface wind nearly due north... http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KPSM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well that product is the max amount from any member at each grid point, so it could just be a GGW ensemble member. Ahhh haha. I missed that. I was like holy crap that's bullish. SREFS are always tossed IMO but that explains it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 51 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: My gut would be to drag that all just a little bit south. I think that PWM could easily be in the watch too. Likewise coastal York and maybe even Rockingham. You guys waiting to issue Advisories? Lead time will be plenty to do it overnight, but the idea with the watches but no advisories is that you don't issue headlines for advisory amounts too far in advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Ahhh haha. I missed that. I was like holy crap that's bullish. SREFS are always tossed IMO but that explains it. Like I said, there may be a trend we can use in the product (ticking colder and cold than normal to begin with) but amounts are trash. I would say with the other available information they lend some confidence to a colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You guys waiting to issue Advisories? Lead time will be plenty to do it overnight, but the idea with the watches but no advisories is that you don't issue headlines for advisory amounts too far in advance? The recommendation for advisory/warning lead time is 12-24 hours, so like you say we have time. And since some of the watch will probably be an advisory anyway, we really don't want to issue some but not all at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: The recommendation for advisory/warning lead time is 12-24 hours, so we have time. And since some of the watch will probably be an advisory anyway, we really don't want to issue some but not all at the same time. Yeah that's what I figured. I'd feel pretty good about issuing advisories at least one zone north/east of the watch zone in the overnight package barring any huge shifts. Think you guys get to low end warning in a few core zones. Even if it busted warm or weaker, think 7" is a good bet for a select area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah that's what I figured. I'd feel pretty good about issuing advisories at least one zone north/east of the watch zone in the overnight package barring any huge shifts. Think you guys get to low end warning in a few core zones. Even if it busted warm or weaker, think 7" is a good bet for a select area. These 4-8" storms are the hardest to issue headlines for because it straddles our criteria. Our forecast may be dead on with amounts, but if we pick the wrong headlines our stats look awful. So it will be a tough decision what to upgrade to warnings and what to upgrade to advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.