CT Valley Snowman Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 I fired up a ob thread as well nuisance precipitation is now affecting western portions of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 22 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm not confident in dynamics for this one so could be a few wet inches here at best. We'll see what 12z models say but I am anticipating lousy ratios. 7:1 maybe? I need to learn how to do snow cores to get w.e. Easy to do if you have the stratus gauge and a snowboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 what's with Weather Underground calling for 3-5 for ORH tonight? Seems out of the ball park compared with other forecasts. They're often the most conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 44 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: O/U for how many times today we are asked "how much for Nashua?" Way to many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 In an operational sense ... it makes a good deal of sense that NWS doens't flip switches, up or downgrading headlines after the initial switch was turned on. Obviously, if that became the common practice, they'd risk having status of adv/watch/warn changing ever 6-hourly model cycle ... the media would/could never catch up and/or do so at different rates among the various outlets; we'd wind up with a hodgepodge of different event alert statuses. Even changing them every 12 hours and skipping the 2's would impart the same defeating of alert purpose ... There's that, but, the models themselves tend to do this and seemingly play a dupe game against veracious effort. You can have sub-sequencing that "looks" like solid consistency, fail on the next run - and usually, bet dimes to donuts that was precisely when x-y-z office bought into said consistency. enters sad trumpet - wah wah waaah. In an operational sense ... there are usually clad markers that unless you see...you stay the course. Those can come along as just an undeniable series of indicators (unless one is biased, delusional..., or just plain stupid), or perhaps experience/wisdom in matters... So there is some subjectivity there - which is sort of the "art" that's left over after all the objective data has been consumed. ...most importantly, consumed objectively... Imho - I don't think anything over the last 12 hours required changing the layout of adv/warn status... We're still inside of 'margins for errors' This was never supposed to be a big deal? For me it was really about shutting up the tsunamis of woe-ism that there was nothing to follow/offer entertainment during the last week; which I found to be untrue and well... feel pretty vindicated. I tell ya - there differently is a secondary...tertiary sort of set of group psychology/dynamic that goes on in here that is at times as energetic as atmosphere. We tongue-in-cheek our way delicately around impugning the general audience for it, but ... it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 26 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: what's with Weather Underground calling for 3-5 for ORH tonight? Seems out of the ball park compared with other forecasts. They're often the most conservative. That doesn't seem like a weird forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That doesn't seem like a weird forecast. 12z RGEM agrees, That's right inline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 Ashburnham/Jaffrey area jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 12z RGEM Snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 20-25mm water equivalent snow = 0.8"-1" Back to 8-10". Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 20-25mm water equivalent snow = 0.8"-1" Back to 8-10". Interesting Based on 10:1, I think its more in the 7-10:1 range for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 20-25mm water equivalent snow = 0.8"-1" Back to 8-10". Interesting Should be a nice event there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 20-25mm water equivalent snow = 0.8"-1" Back to 8-10". Interesting conditionally this thing is loaded against ... i mean, it's blazing away sunshine N of the cloud shield, which is demarcated by a thin razor edge... goes form open sky to inhibited sun over about 3 miles of heavens. that's important ... even in the feeble sun of mid January that is so, because ...the atmosphere is/was so marginal. for those banking on a this staying frozen, which it probably will once wet bulb and midland dynamics pass through... , marginal is code for 'not having much wiggle room' when it comes to preserving matters. the models charging taxes so deep the coast not gets no profit .. it's all sort of providing an affectation of trying to succeed in an environment of haters and vitriol - ha! the weather channel should have named this storm, "Obama" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 I have been thinking about that....worst diurnal timing of having clouds arrive to lock in solar irradiance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: conditionally this thing is loaded against ... i mean, it's blazing away sunshine N of the cloud shield, which is demarcated by a thin razor edge... goes form open sky to inhibited sun over about 3 miles of heavens. that's important ... even in the feeble sun of mid January that is so, because ...the atmosphere is/was so marginal. for those banking on a this staying frozen, which it probably will once wet bulb and midland dynamics pass through... , marginal is code for 'not having much wiggle room' when it comes to preserving matters. the models charging taxes so deep the coast not gets no profit .. it's all sort of providing an affectation of trying to succeed in an environment of haters and vitriol - ha! the weather channel should have named this storm, "Obama" Jeez John, you certainly beat around the Bush Yup, marginal. Could be sloppy, wet junk for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: Based on 10:1, I think its more in the 7-10:1 range for this one Yeah... 10:1 Will prob be much wetter than that, but elevation helps a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah... 10:1 Will prob be much wetter than that, but elevation helps a little? It may, I know here i find a lot of these wetter systems to be closer to 7:1 being on the coastal plain when i have done core samples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Jeez John, you certainly beat around the Bush Yup, marginal. Could be sloppy, wet junk for a while Methinks you're the winner with this one, Dave. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 hours ago, CTValleySnowMan said: I fired up a ob thread as well nuisance precipitation is now affecting western portions of the region It it's snow, it's not a nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, moneypitmike said: It it's snow, it's not a nuisance. GFS gives you 12 to 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 The one thing that bothers me about this event is that a lot of guidance is limited the duration of heavier precip to just a few hours...2-4 hours of good precip should wetbulb many folks in the interior to snow, but then it starts to lighten up and/or become more fractured. I'd like to see things consolidate a bit better. That would be my biggest concern for not getting much....RGEM really tries and backfills the precip shield so it ends up working out, but that is kind of precarious. We'll have to see how everything trends on the short term guidance this afternoon. Could be the difference between 1-3" of slop and 6-8" in the higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GFS gives you 12 to 14 whatju talkin' about, Willis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 Too bad this wasn't delayed by even 6 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The one thing that bothers me about this event is that a lot of guidance is limited the duration of heavier precip to just a few hours...2-4 hours of good precip should wetbulb many folks in the interior to snow, but then it starts to lighten up and/or become more fractured. I'd like to see things consolidate a bit better. That would be my biggest concern for not getting much....RGEM really tries and backfills the precip shield so it ends up working out, but that is kind of precarious. We'll have to see how everything trends on the short term guidance this afternoon. Could be the difference between 1-3" of slop and 6-8" in the higher terrain. The 3KM shows the crappy intensity pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Soooo basically I should expect anywhere from 2" to 10"....ok got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Going to have to make hay in those few hours of good lift otherwise the rates are not good even though its over a long duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: whatju talkin' about, Willis? Ginxy gone wild....looks more like S VT and maybe Florida MA gets 12"+ on GFS...you still do well though, 7-8" probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 24 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Jeez John, you certainly beat around the Bush Yup, marginal. Could be sloppy, wet junk for a while hey man... it's just the Reaganomics of the indexes ... ....okay, a little weaker - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ginxy gone wild....looks more like S VT and maybe Florida MA gets 12"+ on GFS...you still do well though, 7-8" probably. Eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 How though? where the hell is that model getting that from - interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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