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1/14 - 15 Minor Snow and Ice Threat


Bob Chill
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7 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Even he is calling for at most 1" S&E of the fall line and at most 2" out to Parr's Ridge... even that seems unlikely now, but it isn't what I'd think would make people empty the bread aisles...

He just has a way of wording things that make people excited and all freaked out...He never down plays anything. The average person doesnt click on those links on his facebook page and understand all the terminology and maps they are looking at

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

NAM actually looks a little better for the first wave....it at least starts as snow.  

I dont quite get how the ptype map can show snow for DC when 850mb temps at the same hour are at or above 0C....hr 15 is what Im talking about. Maybe Im interpreting it wrong

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1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Yea, it can snow and stick when temps are 33-35, especially at night, but usually only when it's coming down moderately.  the fact that this was always broadcast as a light precip event (weakening system) makes it tough.  i've never been a big fan of wave #1 after a warm airmass.  we don't usually do well in those scenarios.  we're better at establishing a cold pattern first and finding a storm.  it's harder to get below freezing here than it is to get precip.

Just because a model says .25 qpf doesn't mean light. If it falls in 3 hours that's a pretty good rate. There were some runs that had a burst and during that the temps were ok. 31-32 is marginal but if we had gotten a decent slug of moisture like those runs showed it would have been workable. Don't know where your 33-35 comes from. That's what it will be later in the day during light precip from wave 2. Had wave 1 hit early temps wouldn't be 35. I feel your trying to make a "it's just too warm" argument when "it's just a weak POS" is a better one. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just because a model says .25 qpf doesn't mean light. If it falls in 3 hours that's a pretty good rate. There were some runs that had a burst and during that the temps were ok. 31-32 is marginal but if we had gotten a decent slug of moisture like those runs showed it would have been workable. Don't know where your 33-35 comes from. That's what it will be later in the day during light precip from wave 2. Had wave 1 hit early temps wouldn't be 35. I feel your trying to make a "it's just too warm" argument when "it's just a weak POS" is a better one. 

i'm just using an example that it CAN stick with temps above freezing if the rates are efficient.  i've seen in the past where the temps are staying just cold enough for snow (33-35'ish) so long as we have the rates to overcome whatever warm layer there is.  in fring'y scenarios, light precip just doesn't always work.

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1 hour ago, chris624wx said:

People probably assume this is an extension of the Ice Storm back in the Plaines. I mean, in a way it is. Same frontal boundary, but entirely different set-up over our area. So connecting the two is probably why people think this will be a major event, even though those of us that have followed it all week have known it would likely be a novelty/minor event (except for a few runs here and there that showed some impressive solutions). I'm going to enjoy what little happens tomorrow and then get ready for post-torch chances. 

We'd be looking a lot better if temperatures were to cooperate.

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34 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Models are overrated 

As an ambassador of Western PWC I would like to apologize for the poor winter weather you are experiencing.  I will do everything I can to improve your situation in the coming weeks and would like to offer you a coffee and muffin.

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A dusting would be great. I know I won't need a shovel. Just a small shallow area of winter wonderland

perfect winter: 2-weeks cold/snow, 1-week warm/dry, 2-weeks cold/snow, 2-weeks warm/dry, a classic Nor'easter and very cold and picturesque week, then 2-weeks warm and outdoorsy, sunny and quite dry... (etc etc)


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Tryng to take a road trip to the poconos tomorrow morning. NWS and tv have scared part of my party into thinking of canceling the trip. From what I'm seeing here, road conditions should actually be better the farther north we go. We were planning on taking 95 to 476. Sorry for the IMBY question, but what do you guys think?

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1 minute ago, mdhokie said:

Tryng to take a road trip to the poconos tomorrow morning. NWS and tv have scared part of my party into thinking of canceling the trip. From what I'm seeing here, road conditions should actually be better the farther north we go. We were planning on taking 95 to 476. Sorry for the IMBY question, but what do you guys think?

Should be fine. Especially the highways. Obviously if you do encounter wintery conditions slow down but we're not talking anything major anywhere and probably nothing once your north of Wilmington. 

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1 minute ago, mdhokie said:

Tryng to take a road trip to the poconos tomorrow morning. NWS and tv have scared part of my party into thinking of canceling the trip. From what I'm seeing here, road conditions should actually be better the farther north we go. We were planning on taking 95 to 476. Sorry for the IMBY question, but what do you guys think?

My opinion is I wouldn't think twice about it and I'd definitely be going....but that's just me.   I'm also the kinda guy who will drive to Canaan Valley in a whiteout to go skiing. 

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Nam twins had .2-.4 qpf out your way I believe .

Reconciliation of the NAMs would mean an event of about .3. Not much but maybe it is dynamic?if we double up, which is unlikely, we could get a vigorous if moisture starved. If the columns cool we could get ratios. I would kill for a little more energy. Only time will tell how healthy a system we get, if we get anything at all. I am not holding my breath in these conditions

perfect winter: 2-weeks cold/snow, 1-week warm/dry, 2-weeks cold/snow, 2-weeks warm/dry, a classic Nor'easter and very cold and picturesque week, then 2-weeks warm and outdoorsy, sunny and quite dry... (etc etc)

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Reconciliation of the NAMs would mean an event of about .3. Not much but maybe it is dynamic?if we double up, which is unlikely, we could get a vigorous if moisture starved system, and who knows what could transpire, in situ . If the columns cool we could get ratios. I would kill for a little more energy. Only time will tell how healthy a system we get, if we get anything at all. I am not holding my breath in these conditions

perfect winter: 2-weeks cold/snow, 1-week warm/dry, 2-weeks cold/snow, 2-weeks warm/dry, a classic Nor'easter and very cold and picturesque week, then 2-weeks warm and outdoorsy, sunny and quite dry... (etc etc)




perfect winter: 2-weeks cold/snow, 1-week warm/dry, 2-weeks cold/snow, 2-weeks warm/dry, a classic Nor'easter and very cold and picturesque week, then 2-weeks warm and outdoorsy, sunny and quite dry... (etc etc)

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