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Onset is in 72 hours. Midlevels have trended even colder on the 12z gfs. Ops seem locked in with some sort of mix of wintry precip through much of the area. Many of us could stay below freezing all day on Sat. Especially the northern tier. It may be a light event but the duration looks unusually long. Could be the biggest event of the year for many of us. That isn't really saying much though. LOL
I personally think November 2015 will be warmer than average, CFS has strongly been trending warmer than average since August. The CanSIPS model has also been trending warmer than average. Precipitation forecasts from CanSIPs and CFS also analyze above average. Now the Jamstec model is a bit different. It predicts a warmer than average November for areas east of the MS river excluding IL,WI, and MN. But it then predicts a cooler than average November for areas west of the MS river, east of the Rockies. That is the September run and the October run should come in in a couple of days. I do think our "Second Tornado Season", could be good. The last El Nino analogs I found have had Late Fall-Early Winter tornado outbreaks. This next list of outbreaks all happened in El Nino conditions in November. November 22-24, 2004, 2002 Veteran's Day Outbreak, 1987 Arklatex tornado outbreak, and so on.